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Seasoned investment professionals, sector-dedicated analysts and creative thinkers are at the heart of our business. Get their perspective on today's market climate.

Counterpoint: Top EM Plays for 2013(05:54)

Eric Fine & Fran Rodilosso
Portfolio Managers

February 1, 2013

TOP EM PLAYS FOR 2013


ERIC FINE, PORTFOLIO MANAGER: The top four emerging markets I like right now are Nigeria local market, Mexico local market, Russia local market, and Indonesia local market.  What they have in common is yields that we think are too high, independent central banks, and also very strong balance sheets. All of these central banks will likely hike interest rates or take other tightening action if they perceive an inflation problem. Russia, for example, could buy back all of its sovereign external debt in one phone call. Also, they have far more reserves than debt. We also have markets that show up positively in our models but don’t pass further tests. In other words, if we depended totally on our frameworks and models, we should own them, but we don’t.  They include Argentina, Ukraine, and Venezuela. I've just visited each of these on several trips, and they don't pass for a variety of reasons:  Venezuela because of the politics, Argentina due to technical default and political risks, and Ukraine because of policies, and it’s not clear that the new government will reach an agreement with the IMF.


FRAN RODILOSSO, PORTFOLIO MANAGER: Interesting.  Here is one question I think investors will ask. Eric, your top four are significant oil-producing nations, even if they are not net exporters. In a couple of cases, oil revenues are a very significant part of government revenues.  How do you think that factors into the setup for 2013?


FINE: I think that's a great question. All four countries are perceived as oil-exporters.  However, I think Mexico and Indonesia clearly are different. In Mexico, lower oil prices would demonstrate the country's gearing to the U.S. All else being equal, I believe lower energy input prices should be positive for U.S. growth. In my opinion, Mexico is much more geared to U.S. growth than it is to oil prices.  Indonesia similarly has a very high energy component in its consumption basket, and domestic energy subsidies are a drain on the fiscal resources of the country. So a decline in energy prices would have the effect of making interest rates look higher. Russia and Nigeria are basically oil stories; they have a relatively comfortable price spread over their break-even levels, whether you're talking about the external accounts or for the budget.  While they do have oil price risk, there's a significant cushion in the form of their budgeted assumption for oil prices. There is also a significant cushion in the fact that they don't have a lot of debt, so they can lever up if needed.


RODILOSSO:Right.  The best fundamental of all.


FINE: Fran, similar question to you -- what do you think about the impact of commodity prices on the corporate debt market?


RODILOSSO: That's a great question, and as in the sovereign space, it is a mixed answer.  Using oil as the first commodity price, your example of Mexico is great.  Mexico has a very diversified economy, even if oil revenues are an important part of government revenues.  There are companies that produce metals or cement and have high energy input costs.  They will likely benefit greatly from lower energy prices. Obviously, higher iron ore prices might help certain companies in Brazil. But net-net, I think an increasing part of the emerging market corporate universe are not energy or pure commodity-based producers. It is a much more diversified universe than it used to be.  We believe a lot of companies could benefit from lower energy prices.


MEASURING RISKS IN VENEZUELA


ERIC FINE: On Venezuela, I think the market has put a premium on President Chavez's deteriorating health.  Generally speaking, the market has viewed Chavez's demise as a positive for long-term economic outcomes, so negative health reports have increased the premium. In my opinion, I think the legal, political and constitution risks are pretty high. So, I think we've got a premium that may be a bit overdone, and some risks are understated.  Venezuela does have one pretty important positive. If you add up all of Venezuela’s reserve sources – not oil reserves, actual money – most of their central bank reserves are in gold and the value is higher than their external debt. They are a net creditor in dollars.


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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE


The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker and are current as of the video’s posting date. Video commentaries are general in nature and should not be construed as investment advice. Opinions are subject to change with market conditions. All performance information is historical and is not a guarantee of future results. For more information about Van Eck Funds, Market Vectors ETFs or fund performance, visit vaneck.com. Any discussion of specific securities mentioned in the video commentaries is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities. Fund holdings will vary. All indices mentioned are measures of common market sectors and performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Information on holdings, performance and indices can be found at vaneck.com.  


Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation offers investment products that invest in the asset class(es) included in this video. Investments in emerging markets securities tend to be more volatile and less liquid than securities traded in developed countries. Emerging markets investments are subject to risks associated with investments in below investment grade securities, debt securities, derivatives, emerging markets securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities and investments in other investment companies.



Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. An investor should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the investment company before investing. Bond and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. Call 800.826.2333 or click below to obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus which contain this and other information. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectuscarefully before investing. A Fund prospectus is available at vaneck.com.


No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Securities Corporation. © 2013 Van Eck Securities Corporation.

Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor

335 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017

 
Hard Assets (8)
Examining Gold’s Astonishing April Sell-Off(04:45)
Imaru Casanova
Metals & Mining Analyst,
Van Eck International Investors Gold Investment Team


posted on May 15, 2013

"We think gold needs to form a new base, somewhere around the $1400 level, before we see it resume its bull trend later this year."


Aftershock from the Cyprus Banking Crisis(4:12)
Roland Morris
Commodity Strategist,
Van Eck Global Hard Assets Investment Team


posted on April 12, 2013

"Most people may not realize this, but most countries in Europe have banking systems that are larger than their economies. I believe there is a chance that this spreads to banking concerns within Italy."


Gold Miners: Coming to Terms with Costs(3:20)
Imaru Casanova
Metals & Mining Analyst,
Van Eck International Investors Gold Investment Team


posted on April 12, 2013

"They're starting to adopt a new measure referred to as all-in sustaining cash costs-- which we feel should be a better measure, it should more fully reflect the real cost of producing an ounce of gold."


Global Research: Mining in the Dominican Republic(4:24)
Joe Foster
Portfolio Manager,
Van Eck International Investors Gold Investment Team


posted on April 5, 2013

"There have been some exciting discoveries, some great drill results, come out of the Dominican Republic."


Outlook 2013: Base Metals, Copper and Strikes in South Africa(4:07)
Charl Malan
Metals & Mining Analyst,
Van Eck Global Hard Assets Investment Team


posted on January 17, 2013

"Why do I like copper so much? Copper is a very unique commodity relative to other base and industrial metals."


Outlook 2013: Gold Miners, Bullion and Valuations (3:36)
Imaru Casanova
Metals & Mining Analyst,
Van Eck International Investors Gold Investment Team


posted on January 17, 2013

"Gold stocks, in our opinion, are under-held and under-valued, and we think this presents an opportunity going into 2013."


Outlook 2013: Global Easing, Growth and Commodities(3:58)
Roland Morris
Commodity Strategist,
Van Eck Global Hard Assets Investment Team


posted on January 17, 2013

"Someone said that you want to own what the central banks can't print. And in my mind, that's gold and hard assets in general.


Global Research: Mining in Greece (2:56)
Joe Foster
Portfolio Manager
Van Eck International Investors Gold Investment Team


posted on November 20, 2012

“Greece is taking a second look at mining and we are seeing some of it gold properties being developed. They have created a fast-track program for new businesses. . .”


Emerging Markets (4)
Mid-Year Update on EM Equities(5:38)
David Semple
Portfolio Manager,
Van Eck Emerging Markets Fund


posted on June 6, 2013

"There's no question that China is going to grow at a slower pace than it has done before...But it's also very clear that the government is focusing on the quality of the growth as well...We expect some reasonably significant reforms to come out in probably the latter half of this year, maybe for the party plenum in October."


Latin America: Gearing Up for Growth (05:26)
Ed Kuczma
Emerging Markets Analyst, Van Eck Emerging Markets Investment Team

posted on May 15, 2013

"The Mexican stock exchange has been a tremendous performer relative to other Latin American and emerging markets over the past year."


Measuring EM Valuations in 2013(4:18)
David Semple
Portfolio Manager,
Van Eck Emerging Markets Investment Team


posted on March 5, 2013

"There have been very significant inflows into emerging markets equity and debt…which can be seen as a tactical sell indicator. I think that people are starting to act on the realization that emerging markets economies are in much better shape than most developed markets economies."


Forecasting Growth in Asia in 2013(4:02)
Angus Shillington
Emerging Markets Analyst,
Van Eck Emerging Markets Investment Team


posted on March 5, 2013

"Coming out of the heroic stimulus package of 2009, there were some big economic problems in China….at the end of last year and early this year, however, we started to see growth even-out and, in some cases, accelerate…. China's real estate market has now stabilized....it appears that the Chinese government has control of the situation."


Editor's Choice (18)
Impact of U.S. & JP Policy on EM Debt(5:17)
Eric Fine
Portfolio Manager,
Van Eck Unconstrained Emerging Markets Bond Fund


posted on June 6, 2013

"I think the Bank of Japan's policy has a bunch of implications. One of the implications is, it will appear to be positive for nominal risk. I think another implication is that they are going to be looking to buy other emerging market bonds."


What Are Bond Investors Worried About?(05:40)
Fran Rodilosso
Portfolio Manager,
Market Vectors® Income ETFs


posted on May 15, 2013

"Traditional fixed-income investors are faced with a choice between taking on additional duration or credit risk in order to enhance portfolio yield or current income."


Interest Rates and Credit: Considerations, Preparations and Outlook(5:56)
Fran Rodilosso
Portfolio Manager,
Market Vectors® Income ETFs


posted on April 12, 2013

"In short, we see very limited scope for lower interest rates, and we also see the possibility of an inelegant exit from the massive balance sheet expansion that the Fed has been undertaking for several years."


Global Research: Economic Policy in India(5:42)
Eric Fine
Portfolio Manager,
Van Eck Emerging Markets Bond Investment Team


posted on April 5, 2013

"My main takeaways were that there is some very positive reform momentum and that the India investment story is probably going to benefit equity investors more than bond investors."


Sequestration and the Great Rotation: The Impact on Munis(03:43)
Jim Colby
Portfolio Manager,
Market Vectors® Municipal Bond ETFs


posted on March 29, 2013

"While inflows have been positive, cash for reinvestment, a huge contributor to demand in 2012, has ebbed significantly this March, and is expected to do so again in April."


Investing in a Post-Chavez Venezuela(04:15)
Eric Fine
Portfolio Manager,
Van Eck Emerging Markets Bond Investment Team


posted on March 15, 2013

"For the near-term, we are not bullish on Venezuela's debt. The market may have overreacted positively to Chavez’s death and transition risks remain. It's more short-term issues that are keeping us away."


What Every Retirement Advisor Needs to Know in 2013(5:40)
Patrick Lulley
V.P. DCIO and Insurance

posted on March 15, 2013

"2012 brought greater focus and transparency on retirement plan costs....This has led to an opportunity for retirement advisors."


Indonesia: Continuing Its Record of Strong Economic Growth(8:11)
Neena Mishra
Director of ETF Research, Zacks Investment Research

posted on February 21, 2013

"Indonesia’s economy has grown at an annual rate exceeding 5% in seven of the past eight years, mainly due to increasing consumption by the rising middle class."


Vietnam: Transition to a Leading Low-Cost Manufacturer(6:32)
Neena Mishra
Director of ETF Research, Zacks Investment Research

posted on February 21, 2013

"Vietnam continues to be the main beneficiary of the migration of low-end manufacturing out of China as the producers try to take advantage of wages that are about half of that in China."


Counterpoint: Top EM Plays for 2013(05:54)
Eric Fine & Fran Rodilosso
Portfolio Managers

posted on February 1, 2013

"The top four emerging markets I like right now are the local markets of Nigeria, Mexico, Russia and Indonesia."


Counterpoint: EM Currency Opportunities in 2013(3:28)
Eric Fine & Fran Rodilosso
Portfolio Managers

posted on February 1, 2013

"We really like local currency in EM debt right now...It's where the rubber meets the road."


Counterpoint: EM Fixed-Income Bubble?(3:33)
Eric Fine & Fran Rodilosso
Portfolio Managers

posted on February 1, 2013

"I think using the word "bubble" right now... is not thinking about the situation in the right way."


Counterpoint: EM Bonds as an Asset Class(3:45)
Eric Fine & Fran Rodilosso
Portfolio Managers

posted on February 1, 2013

"...emerging markets fits pretty interestingly right now in terms of its fundamentals."


Emerging Markets Bond: Key Themes for 2013(3:44)
Eric Fine
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posted on January 24, 2013

"The push away from developed economy currencies is a big macro theme for 2013."


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posted on October 25, 2012




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posted on

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Video & Transcript Archive (50) Collapse -