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I believe that 2013 promises to stand in contrast to the linear upward moves for municipal bonds in 2012. There appears to be conflicting expectations about new issue supply, so my conservative view is to say that volume has the potential to be +/- 10% of that of 2012. Much depends on a solution out of Washington concerning taxes, entitlements and federal support for state and local government programs.
Authored by James Colby
The municipal market continues to be well-bid by evidence of continued strong flows into muni funds. I believe we can expect the demand side of the equation to drive the market through yearend.
Amid all the questions and uncertainties whirling around Washington in the aftermath of the presidential election, the image of higher personal income taxes — fiscal cliff or not — is coming into sharper focus. In what could become known as the next "Great Compromise," I believe taxes are almost assuredly going higher. We may also have to throw capital gains taxes into the stew of tweaks and twists to which congressional leaders may need to agree. What is there for individual investors to do?
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Please note that MUNI NATIONs that are written by Jim Colby represent his opinions and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. MUNI NATION is not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-Van Eck Global proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Global. MUNI NATION is a trademark of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
All indices listed are unmanaged indices and do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Any discussion of specific securities mentioned in the commentary is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities.
Municipal bonds are subject to risks related to litigation, legislation, political change, conditions in underlying sectors or in local business communities and economies, bankruptcy or other changes in the issuer’s financial condition, and/or the discontinuance of taxes supporting the project or assets or the inability to collect revenues for the project or from the assets. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. Additional risks include credit, interest rate, call, reinvestment, tax, market and lease obligation risk. High-yield municipal bonds are subject to greater risk of loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities, and are likely to be more sensitive to adverse economic changes or individual municipal developments than those of higher-rated securities. Municipal bonds may be less liquid than taxable bonds.
The income generated from some types of municipal bonds may be subject to state and local taxes as well as to federal taxes on capital gains and may also be subject to alternative minimum tax.
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