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Traders are telling me, in so many words, that they are beginning to touch solid ground (perhaps with only their toes) and set bids in today's market in the wake of the selling frenzy which occurred yesterday. The recalibration of the AAA yield curve for municipals reveals a nearly 100 basis point adjustment to 30 year yields from the end of April.
Authored by James Colby
The Buffalo Springfield song refrain, "…what's that sound, everybody look what's going down" applies as much to the financial markets of today as it did to life in 1967. We seem to have reached a tipping point where investors and traders are intent upon stealing the Fed’s thunder and have begun to drive interest rates higher on their own. In my view, bearish talk and sentiment have led to the selling of mutual fund shares, which has led to the selling of cash bonds, pushing prices lower and yields higher. Because a large portion of the muni market is owned by retail investors who are sensitive to these issues, mutual fund and ETF price declines have the potential to force even more selling.
In the past I have referenced "headline risk" as a market impediment to which the municipal market seems inexorably tied. The municipal market still appears, to me, unable to shrug off the wet blanket of concern that most recently has taken cash away from muni assets and pushed yields higher. See the tables below; in my view, the Barclays Municipal Bond Indices demonstrate that the increase in yields may have caused negative returns for the month of May.
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Please note that MUNI NATIONs that are written by Jim Colby represent his opinions and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. MUNI NATION is not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-Van Eck Global proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Global. MUNI NATION is a trademark of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
All indices listed are unmanaged indices and do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Any discussion of specific securities mentioned in the commentary is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities.
Municipal bonds are subject to risks related to litigation, legislation, political change, conditions in underlying sectors or in local business communities and economies, bankruptcy or other changes in the issuer’s financial condition, and/or the discontinuance of taxes supporting the project or assets or the inability to collect revenues for the project or from the assets. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. Additional risks include credit, interest rate, call, reinvestment, tax, market and lease obligation risk. High-yield municipal bonds are subject to greater risk of loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities, and are likely to be more sensitive to adverse economic changes or individual municipal developments than those of higher-rated securities. Municipal bonds may be less liquid than taxable bonds.
The income generated from some types of municipal bonds may be subject to state and local taxes as well as to federal taxes on capital gains and may also be subject to alternative minimum tax.
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