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With the political ripples of the "cliff" and inauguration finally reaching the edge of the pond, the markets appear to be once again fully engaged in the dissection of domestic economic releases, earnings and European monetary drama. The elements that I believe sparked a year-end selloff have now receded, allowing municipals to push forward with a month-to-date gain of 0.62% as of January 25, 2013. New flows into municipals, along with cash from calls, maturities and coupon payments are again positive, overwhelming a meager January supply: a formula that is prevalent in most years, coined the "January Effect."
Authored by James Colby
One point which I believe is universally made regarding the municipal bond market is that the overall credit quality (the implied security) of the issues brought to the market not only underpins the attraction of municipals as an asset class, but separates it very distinctly from other fixed-income choices.
If there is one certainty that I believe municipal bond investors can lean upon as we fully commit to writing 2013 in our check registers, it is the seemingly perpetual uncertainty regarding the political deliberations about to resume in Washington, which again could include discussions about capping the benefit of the tax-free coupon. Ask yourself, "What has changed since the November elections?" and you'll probably answer, "Nothing." However, with the adjusted personal income tax rates now at higher levels, this statement is not entirely true; the market has been living with this cloud of uncertainty going on five months or more.
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Please note that MUNI NATIONs that are written by Jim Colby represent his opinions and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. MUNI NATION is not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-Van Eck Global proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Global. © 2014 Van Eck Securities Corporation. MUNI NATION is a trademark of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
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Municipal bonds are subject to risks related to litigation, legislation, political change, conditions in underlying sectors or in local business communities and economies, bankruptcy or other changes in the issuer’s financial condition, and/or the discontinuance of taxes supporting the project or assets or the inability to collect revenues for the project or from the assets. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. Additional risks include credit, interest rate, call, reinvestment, tax, market and lease obligation risk. High-yield municipal bonds are subject to greater risk of loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities, and are likely to be more sensitive to adverse economic changes or individual municipal developments than those of higher-rated securities. Municipal bonds may be less liquid than taxable bonds.
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