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Municipal Trifecta - Wednesday, 02/01/2012

  • Strong inflows boost market
  • Fed policy supportive of municipals
  • Tax-exempt income "off the table" in Washington
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The continuation of strong cash flows, elevating municipal asset levels for investment platforms has led to a resumption of positive performance for virtually all sectors of the muni market in January. The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index posted a 2.31% gain for the month, and the Barclays Capital High Yield Municipal Bond Index was up by 3.68%. This illustrates both the strong search and demand for yield, as well as the renewed confidence in an asset class which was shunned just a year earlier.

Underpinning all fixed-income markets is the Fed [Federal Reserve Board], which continues to make clear its intention of holding rates at these historically low levels for the next three years, sensing "significant downside risks" despite the appearance of the economy "expanding moderately" in certain areas. It is our opinion that this macro view is supportive of municipals. Why? Because municipal yields typically follow those of U.S. Treasuries, and, in our view, Treasuries are likely to hold to these lower trading ranges. Lower rates would likely also gradually entice issuers to the market to "refund" outstanding higher-cost debt, which should reduce costs for municipalities. We think that any improvement in the economy, along with cost savings, will boost credit valuations.

Finally, removing one potential impediment, senior White House economic advisors have told state and local officials that tax-exempt bond interest is "off the table" and will not be part of the administration's proposed 28% cap on the value of exclusions, deductions and other tax preferences for wealthy taxpayers. This is likely to boost confidence for muni investors.

Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index is considered representative of the broad market for investment grade, tax-exempt bonds with a maturity of at least one year; the Barclays Capital High Yield Municipal Bond Index is a subset of this major Index.  

 

 

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Please note that MUNI NATION is written by Jim Colby and represents his opinions, and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. MUNI NATION is not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-Van Eck Global proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Global. © 2014 Van Eck Securities Corporation. MUNI NATION is a trademark of Van Eck Associates Corporation.

All indices listed are unmanaged indices and do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

Any discussion of specific securities mentioned in the commentary is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities.

Municipal bonds are subject to risks related to litigation, legislation, political change, conditions in underlying sectors or in local business communities and economies, bankruptcy or other changes in the issuer’s financial condition, and/or the discontinuance of taxes supporting the project or assets or the inability to collect revenues for the project or from the assets. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. Additional risks include credit, interest rate, call, reinvestment, tax, market and lease obligation risk. High-yield municipal bonds are subject to greater risk of loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities, and are likely to be more sensitive to adverse economic changes or individual municipal developments than those of higher-rated securities. Municipal bonds may be less liquid than taxable bonds.

The income generated from some types of municipal bonds may be subject to state and local taxes as well as to federal taxes on capital gains and may also be subject to alternative minimum tax.

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