Van Eck Global - Since 1955


Santa Claus, Still Coming… - Thursday, 12/20/2012

Month-to-date, and really it is over the last eight business days, munis have sold off in dramatic fashion (now, drama in muniland is far from what is experienced in equities or treasuries). The Barclays Municipal Bond Index is down 1.66% and even the High Yield Index is down 1.08%. The representative AAA yield curve — MMD — has risen by over 40 basis points in that time in a move that likely has many dealers shaken and investors confused. In truth, I don't believe anyone saw this correction coming. My previous MUNI NATION post explains the conditions which took the market down, but other than the downgrade of certain Puerto Rico credits, this was very much a technical correction.

Still, the impact of the failure of our representatives to reach any meaningful accord on serious issues of taxation and spending is a source of enormous frustration. Further, the question of what becomes of the tax-exempt coupon remains a topic of debate, and has clearly spooked the market.

Yes, Santa is still coming to muniland, in the form of reinvestment of coupon, calls and maturities to the jingling of more than $20 billion for December. And once the snow globe settles for investors and advisors, I believe they will see the same high credit quality marketplace at yield levels not seen for many, many weeks. If investors loved the muni market a month ago at the rate of $1 billion in new cash, then the relative value proposition is now all the more compelling. Ho Ho Ho.  


MMD "AAA" Yields Reverse Trend

 Maturities 

9/14/2012  

9/21/2012 

12/7/2012  

12/19/2012 

5 YRS

0.75

0.69

0.64

0.83

10 YRS

1.93

1.79

1.49

1.82

15 YRS

2.34

2.21

1.82

2.15

20 YRS

2.64

2.51

2.12

2.45

30 YRS

3.06

2.95

2.49

2.86

Source: Municipal Market Data as of 12/19/2012.

 


 jim_colby_signature 

 

 

Important Disclosure 

Van Eck Associates Corporation does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service.

Please note that MUNI NATIONs written by Jim Colby represent his opinions and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-Van Eck Global proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Global. © 2014 Van Eck Securities Corporation. MUNI NATION is a trademark of Van Eck Associates Corporation.

All indices listed are unmanaged indices and do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

Any discussion of specific securities mentioned in the commentary is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities.

Municipal bonds are subject to risks related to litigation, legislation, political change, conditions in underlying sectors or in local business communities and economies, bankruptcy or other changes in the issuer’s financial condition, and/or the discontinuance of taxes supporting the project or assets or the inability to collect revenues for the project or from the assets. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. Additional risks include credit, interest rate, call, reinvestment, tax, market and lease obligation risk. High-yield municipal bonds are subject to greater risk of loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities, and are likely to be more sensitive to adverse economic changes or individual municipal developments than those of higher-rated securities. Municipal bonds may be less liquid than taxable bonds.

The income generated from some types of municipal bonds may be subject to state and local taxes as well as to federal taxes on capital gains and may also be subject to alternative minimum tax.

Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 888.MKT.VCTR | 888.658.8287. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.  

Not FDIC Insured — No Bank Guarantee — May Lose Value 

Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor
335 Madison Avenue, 19th Floor
New York, NY 10017
888.MKT.VCTR | 888.658.8287