VanEck Mid-August 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck

Please note that VanEck has exposure to bitcoin and may have positions in bitcoin mining stocks mentioned.

Three key takeaways for mid-July – mid-August:

• Bitcoin (BTC) Hit All-Time Highs: Rebounded to $124K as CME basis hit yearly highs; we maintain our $180K year-end BTC target.
• Bitcoin Miners Split: APLD jumped; most lagged even as U.S. miners’ share of global hashrate hit 31.5%.
• Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) mNAVs Fall: Low volatility curbed financing and growth.

1. Market Performance

In early August, bitcoin (BTC) slid to $112K with 92% of onchain holdings still in profit, before rebounding to $124K on August 13 to notch a new all-time high above July’s $123,838. CME basis funding rates surged to 9%, the highest since February 2025, reflecting renewed speculative appetite. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) purchases added +54K BTC and +72K BTC, respectively, in July.

CME Bitcoin Futures: Annualized 3-Month Rolling Basis

Source: Glassnode as of 8/13/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

2. Onchain Metrics and Dominance

BTC dominance fell from 64.5% in early July to 59.7% by mid-August as Ethereum gained market share. Network transactions increased 26% MoM to 12.9M — the highest since November 2024 — while median fees fell 13% to 421 sats, the lowest since September 2024. This drop was partly due to a reduction in ordinal inscription activity, which hit its second-lowest level since August 2024.

¹ 30 day change & 365 day change are relative to the 30-day avg, not absolute.

Source: Glassnode as of 8/11/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

3. Derivatives and Volatility Trends

Options markets reflected strong bullish positioning. The call/put ratio rose to 3.21x, the highest since June 2024, with $792M spent on call premiums (+37% MoM). Implied volatility fell to just 32%, well below the 50% one-year average, compressing option prices. A +25% OTM 1-year call now costs ~6% of spot, compared to 18% in late 2024. Total option premiums reached $1.1B over the past 30 days, raising the prospect of a sharp volatility spike as investors return from summer.

BTC Volatility Reaches Lowest Levels Since Fall 2023

Source: Glassnode as of 8/12/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

4. Mining Landscape

Hashrate reached a record 902 EH/s in August, up 47% YoY. Revenue per EH/s rose to $59.4K, the highest since December 2024. Key updates: Hive Digital reached 14 EH/s, Cleanspark exceeded 50 EH/s with over 1GW contracted power, and CIFR’s Black Pearl hit 3.4 EH/s. Equity performance was mixed — APLD surged ~54% on strong earnings and a CoreWeave expansion, while CIFR dropped ~22% amid cost and AI/HPC uncertainties. Excluding APLD, the 13-miner equity index we track declined ~4%, even as BTC and the S&P 500 rose ~2%.

A notable structural pivot: TeraWulf (WULF) secured a deal to host 200 MW of AI load with Fluidstack, backed by Google, which will take an 8% stake via warrants. Phase one (40 MW) is set for H1 2026; full buildout by year-end, anchoring WULF as a leader in AI-linked mining infrastructure.

Moreover, U.S.-listed miners now command 31.5% of the global Bitcoin hashrate, up from ~29% earlier this year, marking a record high and showcasing accelerating consolidation and scale advantages.

Mixed Month for Bitcoin Miners: Avg. ~0%, BTC +2.5%

Source: Bloomberg as of 8/12/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

5. Institutional Flows and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)

Public BTC treasuries now hold 951K BTC. MSTR, trading at 1.63x the value of its BTC holdings, has inspired a new wave of DAT entrants aiming to replicate its equity premium. However, mNAVs for MSTR (-16%), MTPLF (-62%), and SMLR (-12%) fell in July. DAT financing depends heavily on BTC volatility, which fuels convertible debt and equity issuance. With volatility muted, issuance capacity — and therefore mNAV growth — may remain under pressure. The chart below illustrates this mNAV compression, highlighting Metaplanet’s higher mNAV from tax, regulatory, and financial advantages, and how valuations have shifted since June.

For a deeper look at MSTR and the mechanics of Digital Asset Treasuries, see our prior analysis.

mNAV Compression in Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) – Metaplanet vs. Peers

Metaplanet Averaged Higher mNAV due to Tax, Regulatory and Financial Advantages

Source: Bloomberg as of 8/12/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Source: Bloomberg as of 8/13/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

6. Forward Risks & Watchpoints

As autumn approaches, several intertwined risks and opportunities emerge. Large outstanding options positions increase the chance that even modest volatility could trigger amplified price swings via dealer hedging. For DATs, a prolonged low-volatility regime may limit capital-raising ability, driving further mNAV compression. In mining, operational execution and integration of AI/HPC workloads will likely drive performance dispersion. Macroeconomic developments and seasonal investor re-engagement could either extend Bitcoin’s momentum or prompt profit-taking. Still, we stick with our $180K BTC price target by year-end.

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Definitions

Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator. It can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network without intermediaries.

S&P 500 Index is a stock market index of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.