August Market Recap: When Gold Speaks, Markets Listen

Key Takeaways:

• Gold’s surge signals eroding trust in money as deficits, debt, and geopolitics collide.
• Fiscal excess vs. AI innovation: the forces set to define investing for the next decade.
• Beyond 60/40: portfolios need gold, Bitcoin, AI, and energy to withstand transition.

Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice or any call to action. Views expressed are for illustrative purposes only, which may include forward-looking statements or past performance, neither of which guarantee future results. Views are those of the author(s), and not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

Gold Doesn’t Lie

+35% for bullion. +90% for gold miners. Gold’s message could not be louder: the world is changing. Gold is on track for its best calendar year since 1979 - the last time deficits, inflation, and geopolitics collided to test global confidence in money.

Two powerful forces are colliding, and they will define the next decade of investing. On one side is government financial excess: runaway deficits, unpayable debt, and mounting pressure on central banks. On the other is extraordinary innovation: artificial intelligence, a once-in-a-century technology that will drive productivity and growth. These forces pull in different directions, but they share one truth - investors can profit by aligning their portfolios with them.

Gold’s Timeless Value

Gold doesn’t need a central bank. It doesn’t rely on fiscal promises. It doesn’t default. It is money in its purest form.

Jarrod Dillian, in his monthly research note The Daily Dirtnap, recently highlighted a 1966 essay from Alan Greenspan that captured this truth perfectly: “Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.”

That was nearly 60 years ago - and it reads like it was written for today.

Central banks understand it. They’re buying gold to diversify away from the dollar. For the first time since the mid-1990s, gold holdings exceed U.S. Treasuries as a percentage of foreign reserves.

Investors are following their lead. Over $25 billion has flowed into bullion ETFs this year, while the largest gold miner ETF, saw $264 million of inflows in a single day in August. Silver and platinum are surging to keep pace.

Gold isn’t just protection. It’s participation. It’s the asset that turns government excess into investor opportunity.

Foreign Central Banks Hold More Gold Than Treasuries

Central Banks' Gold vs. US Treasuries Holdings as a % of International Reserves

Source: Bloomberg, Tavis Costa, Crescat Capital. Chart as of 8/27/2025

Innovation’s Counterweight

While fiscal excess undermines trust, AI is rewriting the growth outlook. Artificial intelligence is not a passing fad. It is a general-purpose technology - like electricity or the internet - that will reshape industries, unlock productivity, and drive global growth faster than most expect.

AI and blockchain are not separate stories - they are part of the same future. As AI takes on more decision-making and accelerates the pace of commerce, decentralized money and programmable financial systems will be the natural counterpart. Gold protects wealth in the physical world. Bitcoin protects it in the digital one. Together, they anchor portfolios for the era ahead.

Beyond the 60/40 Illusion

The 60/40 portfolio was built for a world that no longer exists. To thrive in the next decade, investors need assets that can withstand transition, not just stability. The allocations below are representative of our Wealth Builder Plus Model Portfolio.

The Bottom Line

The clash between government excess and innovation will define this era. For investors, the message is not bearish - it is bullish for those who adapt. Own the stores of value that protect against financial excess. Own the innovations that will power the next wave of growth.

Gold doesn’t lie - it tells us debt and deficits matter, and investors should listen.