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We recently attended (virtually) the 2021 Spring IMF Meetings, where we met with officials from finance ministries, central banks, IFIs such as the IMF, as well as independent economists and experts on topics such as politics and public health. Growth forecasts are being upgraded, interest rates are rising gently, financial conditions are accommodative and monetary and fiscal policy remain supportive. But somehow, the glass is all empty and this setup is very bad for EM. That was the gist of the meetings. Participants were bearish on all things EM—equities and debt. Participants were bullish on all things U.S., especially equities. And what is the big concern driving their worries? Rising yields. That’s it … the big risk is something that is already well in-train, and may even be pausing. This strikes us as a very bullish setup for EM debt. Below are the details.
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