Watch my latest video which focuses on:
Near-Term Outlook and Performance DriversWhile inflows have been positive, cash for reinvestment, a huge contributor to demand in 2012, has ebbed significantly this March, and is expected to do so again in April. I expect demand will not drive the market forward these next two months as it did most of last year. Looking back at historical returns, since 1990, there have been only five times when March performance has been positive. Large issuance of new bonds, such as the current $2.1 billion California general obligation (GO) issue, is an example of how supply now, and in prior years, has subdued demand. Therefore, my expectations are for munis to underperform slightly these next two months, but create attractive price points for investors come May.Impact of Sequestration on the MarketSince December and the fiscal cliff issue, the municipal marketplace has responded very positively — at least for the first two months — to congressional pronouncements concerning the long-term viability of the tax-exempt coupon. Going forward, however, uncertainty remains as to whether or not Congress will continue to think about, if not impose, limitations on the tax-exempt coupon. One positive note out of these recent events is the fact that the highest personal income tax rate has gone up to 39.6%. This continues to bode well for munis in an absolute sense, because the value of the tax-exempt coupon to those in the highest tax bracket remains significant.Considerations in Light of the Great RotationDespite the terrific performance that the equity markets have put in year-to-date, there are still opportunities to be had for municipal investors. There are two things to be mindful of. First, the Federal Reserve has given no indication yet that rates are about to rise, or about to rise anytime in the near future. So opportunities to earn taxable-equivalent returns from municipal products still look attractive. Second, the municipal yield curve remains steeply-sloped, particularly in the intermediate part of the curve. That's where many professionals suggest that there are, and will remain, opportunities for investors to earn performance returns for the 2013 calendar year.
IMPORTANT MUNI NATION® DISCLOSURE
This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
VanEck does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service.
Please note this post represents the views of the author and these views may change at any time and from time to time. MUNI NATION is not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck. MUNI NATION is a trademark of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
All indices listed are unmanaged indices and do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Any discussion of specific securities mentioned in the commentary is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities.
Municipal bonds are subject to risks related to litigation, legislation, political change, conditions in underlying sectors or in local business communities and economies, bankruptcy or other changes in the issuer’s financial condition, and/or the discontinuance of taxes supporting the project or assets or the inability to collect revenues for the project or from the assets. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. Additional risks include credit, interest rate, call, reinvestment, tax, market and lease obligation risk. High-yield municipal bonds are subject to greater risk of loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities, and are likely to be more sensitive to adverse economic changes or individual municipal developments than those of higher-rated securities. Municipal bonds may be less liquid than taxable bonds.
The income generated from some types of municipal bonds may be subject to state and local taxes as well as to federal taxes on capital gains and may also be subject to alternative minimum tax.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com/etfs. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor
666 Third Avenue
New York, NY 10017
Get Even More Tactical with Our Newest Muni ETFs
Munis: Market Views for the Second Half
Munis: High Drama on the High Wire
Munis: Expect More from Your Munis
Munis: Supply Dynamics
Munis: Flattening Yield Curve Supports Performance
Munis: Keep the Pedal to the Metal
Munis: The Compelling Case for Closed-End Municipal Bond Funds
Munis: Muni Market is Generally Healthy Despite Some Headlines
Munis: Muni ETFs in a Portfolio
Munis: Using Muni ETFs to Complement a Portfolio of Bonds
Munis: Utility and Sensibility
Munis: Tune into My Webcast
Munis: An Easy Way to Compare Muni Funds
Munis: Investment Opportunities in the Current Environment
Munis: March Madness?
Munis: Once Upon a Time
Munis: Municipals in 2016
Munis: Potential Puerto Rico Defaults and Reserve Draws
Munis: Go Long for Rising Rates: Just the Facts - Part 2
666 Third Avenue
New York, NY 10017
This website is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this website. Nothing on this website should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. An investor should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. This and other information can be found in the appropriate regulatory documents made available for a specified country as designated in this website.