Turn Ideas into Action for the Second Half of 2026

In a recent webinar, Pat Schramm, Managing Director and Head of National Accounts, shared ideas for turning VanEck's Q3 outlook into portfolio decisions for allocators navigating today's markets.

Key Takeaways:

• Semiconductors remain the backbone of the AI buildout: Chip stocks have historically rebounded strongly following pullbacks in the mid-teens to 20%. Opportunities include SMH for the full value chain; SMHX for targeting fabless disruptors; and the recently launched SMHC, which provides China semiconductor exposure with no overlap with SMH. [11:10]
• Real assets are both a portfolio diversifier and an AI growth story: Natural resources and power generation are the primary bottleneck of the AI buildout; RAAX actively allocates across commodities, infrastructure, MLPs, and gold in a single ticker. [13:00]
• Private credit fundamentals don't match the fear: Flow-driven sentiment has pushed publicly listed BDCs to attractive discounts, creating a potential current-income entry point via BIZD. [14:09]
• Alternative asset managers offer structural growth at cyclical prices: Fee-related earnings at firms like Blue Owl have compounded at 30–40% annually since IPO while share prices sit near multi-year lows; GPZ captures this theme. [18:34]
• Gold's bull market has room to run – Central bank buying, debt debasement, and structural under-ownership may support a continued rally; GDX and OUNZ offer differentiated exposure. [23:18]
• Bitcoin is approaching a cyclical bottom – The predictable post-halving bear cycle is showing signs of exhaustion; HODL and NODE provide options for investors ready to scale back in. [25:37]

VanEck Bitcoin ETF (“HODL”) and VanEck Merk Gold ETF (“OUNZ”) (collectively, the “Trusts”) are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of Bitcoin is highly volatile, and you can lose your entire principal investment. HODL and OUNZ are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the "1940 Act") and therefore are not subject to the same protections as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the 1940 Act.

The AI Build-Out Is Broadening

Hyperscaler capital expenditure projections have climbed from roughly $500 billion entering 2025 to over $700 billion today, with sell-side estimates approaching $1 trillion within the next year.¹ In Q2, eight of 11 S&P sectors reported margins above their five-year average.² This is a sign that benefits are broadening, and the market is starting to reflect it.

We view AI through a three-phase framework — build, adopt, automate — and we are still early in the transition between build and adopt. That means staying invested.

Semiconductors as a Buy-the-Dip Theme

Semiconductors sold off meaningfully in Q2 before largely retracing the move. The pullback was driven by valuation concerns, rising capital expenditure scrutiny, and macro uncertainty, but history offers useful context. Following mid-teens to 20% corrections in semiconductor stocks, subsequent 12-month performance has historically been strong, particularly in non-recessionary environments.

Global Semiconductors Performance After Pullbacks

Source: BofA Global Quantitative Strategy, MSCI, Factset, Bloomberg. Data as of 6/30/2026. Chart reflects the historical performance of the MSCI Global Semiconductors Index following declines of the magnitude described, and is shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Investment Ideas:

• VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): Broad semiconductor exposure anchored by Nvidia and the full semiconductor value chain.
• VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): Targets only asset-light, R&D-heavy fabless companies.
• VanEck China Semiconductor ETF (SMHC): Provides exposure to Chinese open-source AI and semiconductor development as a potential complement or hedge, with zero overlap with SMH.

The New World Is Built by the Old World

Natural resources and power generation are the primary bottleneck of the AI infrastructure buildout, making real assets both a diversifier and a growth story. Global electricity demand is expected to double by 2050. The U.S. power grid was not built to handle current AI demands, making investment in infrastructure upgrades increasingly necessary.

Investment Ideas:

• VanEck Real Assets ETF (RAAX): Actively allocates across three pillars: growth-oriented holdings such as commodities, resource equities and infrastructure; income-producing assets, including Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), pipelines, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs); and capital preservation via gold.
• VanEck Data Center Supply Chain ETF (RACK): Targeted exposure to the companies building the physical infrastructure behind AI, including semiconductors, data center solutions, power, bridge infrastructure, and nuclear energy.

Private Credit's Sentiment Overhang

Retail redemption requests have pushed publicly listed business development companies (BDCs) to meaningful discounts to NAV. But the underlying thesis is intact: nonaccrual rates remain well below historical averages, interest coverage is solid, and net leverage is manageable. This is a flow-driven pricing dislocation, not a credit problem.

Investment Idea:

• VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD): Diversified, market-cap-weighted exposure to the largest publicly listed BDCs in a liquid ETF wrapper.

Listed Alternative Asset Managers: Structural Growth at Cyclical Prices

Publicly listed alternative asset managers — like Blue Owl and Ares — have been caught in the same retail-driven sentiment downdraft as BDCs, pushing valuations toward multi-year lows even as fee-related earnings and assets under management at leading firms have compounded. The structural case for alternatives is unchanged. Allocations have continued to grow, driven by demographics, regulatory unlocks, and companies staying private longer.

Investment Idea:

• VanEck Alternative Asset Manager ETF (GPZ): Market-cap-weighted exposure to the largest and most liquid publicly traded alternative asset managers across private equity, private credit, infrastructure, and real estate.

Gold Encounters Pause Within a Structural Bull Market

Gold’s recent consolidation is a normal correction within a structural bull market, not a trend reversal. The case for gold remains grounded in durable macro forces: central banks are net buyers, fiscal deficits are widening, inflation has been persistently above target, and the incoming Federal Reserve leadership creates additional policy uncertainty.

Investment Ideas:

• VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX): Equity exposure to gold mining companies, providing leveraged participation in gold price moves.
• VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ): Spot gold exposure with the distinctive option to take physical delivery of the underlying gold.

Bitcoin: A Predictable Cycle, a Potential Opportunity

Bitcoin entered a cyclical bear phase around Q4 2024, a pattern historically tied to the four-year halving cycle, in which mining rewards are cut in half, supply contracts, and a bear period may follow. The current cycle has seen bitcoin decline from a peak of approximately $125,000 to the low $60,000s. That context matters. These cycles are features, not structural breaks.

VanEck's GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, On-Chain Activity) framework shows two of three signals being neutral, with ecosystem leverage constructive. These are signs of near-bottoming that we believe may warrant beginning to scale in.

Investment Ideas:

• VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL): Low-cost spot bitcoin exposure that tracks the spot price directly.
• VanEck Onchain Economy ETF (NODE): Active exposure to companies meaningfully tied to the onchain economy, with bitcoin cycle indicators incorporated to inform risk exposure.

Putting It All Together

The central message from VanEck's Q3 Outlook is straightforward: concentration has given way to dispersion, and dispersion creates opportunity. Staying invested in structural themes while redeploying into areas of cyclical weakness is how we think allocators should be positioning portfolios for the remainder of 2026.