Commodity Prices Rise on Energy Disruptions

Key Takeaways

• Energy disruptions supported broad commodity gains
• CMCITR posted strong returns but trailed BCOM
• Supply constraints contributed to gains across sectors

Q1 2026 Commodity Market Overview

Commodity markets moved higher in Q1 2026, supported by supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and reduced transit through the Strait of Hormuz. These developments constrained global flows of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), contributing to higher energy prices.

The impact of reduced LNG availability also extended to other sectors. Lower fertilizer production contributed to tighter agricultural supply conditions and higher crop prices. In industrial metals, regional disruptions affected aluminum production and shipping activity. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty supported demand for precious metals.

All major commodity sectors recorded positive returns during the quarter.

CMCITR vs. BCOM: Performance Summary

UBS CM Commodity Index (CMCITR) returned 16.68% in Q1 2026, while Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) returned 24.41%.

CMCITR underperformed BCOM, primarily due to lower exposure to precious metals, particularly gold. Gold contributed more significantly to BCOM’s performance due to its higher weight. Differences in agricultural exposures, including soybean oil, also contributed modestly, while a higher allocation to industrial metals provided a partial offset.

Energy markets shifted into pronounced backwardation during the quarter, with front-month prices rising more sharply than longer-dated contracts. BCOM’s front-month positioning captured more of this move, while CMCITR’s exposure further along the curve resulted in relatively lower participation in the rally. In addition, BCOM’s early January rebalancing increased exposure to several commodities that subsequently performed well, contributing to a wider performance difference than suggested by static-weight attribution analysis.

Commodity Sector Performance: Top Contributors to CMCITR in Q1 2026

A closer look at the commodity sector’s performance highlights the primary drivers of CMCITR’s returns in Q1 2026, with energy accounting for the majority of returns.

The chart below highlights sector contributions to CMCITR’s performance in Q1 2026, highlighting the outsized impact of energy alongside gains across other commodity sectors.

Comparative Index Sector Weights

Source: VanEck, Bloomberg. Data as of March 2026.

Commodity Market Outlook: What Could Drive Prices in 2026?

Commodity markets may continue to be influenced by supply conditions and geopolitical developments. Ongoing constraints affecting energy transportation could continue to support prices in the near term.

Agricultural markets may remain sensitive to input costs, including fertilizer availability. Precious metals could continue to see support if uncertainty persists.

From an index perspective, CMCITR’s diversified futures exposure may result in different outcomes depending on the shape of commodity curves. In periods of backwardation, front-month exposure may benefit more directly, while more balanced curve exposure may provide different return characteristics over time.

Learn more about the VanEck CM Commodity Index Fund and the VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF (CMCI), which seek to track, before fees and expenses, the CMCITR.