Why Gold's Pullback is a Setup, Not a Setback

Key Takeaways:

• Real assets may be entering a new regime driven by AI, rising power demand, and shifting monetary dynamics.
• Gold’s bull market may still be early by historical standards, and periodic corrections are normal.
• A diversified real asset allocation, such as the RAAX ETF, can help position portfolios for monetary debasement.

A new regime for real assets may be underway, driven by surging electricity demand, AI infrastructure buildout, and shifting monetary dynamics. Against this backdrop, we examine gold’s role in the cycle, why periodic corrections are historically normal for the metal, silver’s potential, and how diversified real asset exposure through the VanEck Real Assets ETF (RAAX) can help position portfolios for the debasement era.

Highlights from the conversation:

• A new regime for real assets (3:27)

Old-world assets are building and powering the digital economy, and five-year returns across energy, infrastructure, and natural resources have quietly outpaced equities.

• Electricity demand is soaring (6:07)

Global electricity demand is expected to double by 2025.

• The AI buildout bolsters U.S. GDP growth (7:01)

Data center CAPEX and electricity demand are surging, making energy and infrastructure the bottleneck—and the opportunity—of the AI era.

• Old rules broken, new rules begin (8:12)

Prior to 2020, there was price stability, assets appreciated in both dollars and gold, and the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency was unquestioned; we’re in a new debasement era, and gold is the beneficiary.

• Gold’s bull market is in its infancy (10:40)

At roughly 200% cumulative returns, the current cycle is well below the 500–600% gains of prior gold bull markets, and the recent correction is historically normal.

• Silver amplifies the move (13:09)

Silver’s dual monetary and industrial demand has historically magnified gold-led rallies, with structural support from solar, semiconductor, and electronics applications.

• RAAX: one-stop real asset allocation (17:48)

In our view, investors should consider a 10% allocation to diversified real assets to position portfolios for the new debasement era.

The Gold Rally Has More Upside

Looking at the current gold environment through the lens of the two previous major bull markets provides helpful context: the 1976–1980 cycle (which produced roughly 500% cumulative returns) and the 2001–2011 cycle (roughly 600% cumulative returns). The current cycle, which began in 2022, has generated approximately 200% so far. Importantly, both prior bull markets experienced five corrections of 10% or more along the way. The recent pullback represents the second such correction in this cycle and falls well within historical norms.

• Prior gold bull markets produced 500–600% cumulative returns; the current cycle has delivered roughly 200%.
• Both the 1970s and 2000s bull markets experienced five corrections of 10% or more.
• The recent pullback is the second such correction in this cycle and is consistent with historical patterns.

Source: VanEck, Bloomberg. Data as of January 2026. The views expressed are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change without notice, do not constitute investment advice or recommendations, and are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The RAAX ETF: A One-Stop Real Asset Allocation

The VanEck Real Assets ETF (RAAX) primarily allocates to exchange-traded products that provide exposure to real assets. Over the past five years, a portfolio of 55% stocks, 35% bonds, and 10% RAAX delivered a 47.5% cumulative return with an annualized standard deviation of 10.3%—outperforming a traditional 60/40 portfolio with virtually identical risk.

RAAX Average Annual Total Returns as of 12/31/2025* (%)

RAAX Gross Expense Ratio: 0.89%

^* Returns less than one year are not annualized.

All benchmark indices are unmanaged and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Benchmark indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance may be lower or higher than performance data quoted. Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for performance current to the most recent month ended.

Examining a 10% Shift for a New Regime

Allocation Guide and Associated 5-Year Risk / Return

Weighting Stocks vs. Bonds vs. Real Assets

5-Year Cumulative Return and Annualized Risk

Source: VanEck, FactSet. As of December 31, 2025. The views expressed are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change without notice, do not constitute investment advice or recommendations, and are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. “Stocks” represented by S&P 500 Index. “Bonds” represented by Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. “Real Assets” represented by VanEck Real Assets ETF (RAAX). Index descriptions included at the end of this presentation. Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index and allocation performance figures shown are shown are historical and for educational purposes only and do not reflect actual investor accounts or guaranteed outcomes.

The RAAX ETF is structured around three pillars: growth-oriented holdings (54.5%), including commodities, resource equities, and infrastructure; income-producing assets (17.5%), including MLPs, REITs, and utilities; and capital preservation (26%), anchored by gold bullion and gold miners. Its active, rules-based allocation process has added incremental performance at each step relative to both a 60/40 benchmark and an equal-weight proxy of its investment universe.

RAAX has also demonstrated an ability to generate consistent returns relative to both commodities and inflation.

Ability to Outperform Commodities, Inflation Through Time

Annualized Trailing Total Return

Source: FactSet. Data as of December 31, 2025.  ^*As of 4/9/2018. The views expressed are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change without notice, do not constitute investment advice or recommendations, and are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance figures shown are shown are historical and for educational purposes only and do not reflect actual investor accounts or guaranteed outcomes.