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Energy Fuels a Broad Commodity Rally

14 October 2026

Read Time 2 MIN

Energy drove Q3 2026 commodity gains as conflicts and refining constraints lifted refined-product prices, while CMCITR and BCOM each ended September up roughly 32% for the year.

Key Takeaways

  • Commodities rallied in Q3, with CMCITR extending strong year-to-date gains.
  • Energy led returns as supply constraints supported prices.
  • Gains spanned four of five commodity sectors.

Commodity Index Performance in Q3 2026

Commodity indexes posted strong returns in the third quarter of 2026, led by energy. The ongoing conflicts involving Iran and between Russia and Ukraine contributed to concerns about energy supplies and supported prices.

The UBS Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCITR)1 returned 14.42%, compared with 16.19% for the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM).2 Despite trailing BCOM during the quarter, CMCITR remained broadly in line year to date, with both indexes gaining approximately 32% through September 30.

Why Energy Led Commodity Returns

Energy was CMCITR’s strongest-performing sector, with an estimated return of 30.6%. Refining constraints supported sharp increases in refined-product prices. Within CMCITR, heating oil and gas oil futures exposures returned approximately 52% and 71%, respectively.

Energy also accounted for most of CMCITR’s underperformance relative to BCOM. BCOM benefited from a higher energy weighting and greater exposure to shorter-dated energy futures. CMCITR spreads its futures exposure across multiple maturities, which can produce different returns as prices change along the futures curve.

During the quarter, crude oil and refined-product futures remained in backwardation, meaning futures contracts for nearer-term delivery traded at higher prices than futures contracts for later delivery.

How Other Commodity Sectors Performed

Based on estimated sector returns, four of CMCITR’s five sectors advanced during the quarter:

  • Agriculture gained 12.6%, supported by corn, wheat and soybeans.
  • Industrial Metals rose 5.6%, with copper making the largest contribution.
  • Precious Metals gained 2.9%, primarily reflecting gains in gold futures exposure.
  • Livestock declined 4.8%, as live cattle and lean hogs weakened.

The chart below compares the sector weights of CMCITR and BCOM as of September 2026.

The chart below compares the sector weights of CMCITR and BCOM as of September 2026.

The chart below compares the sector weights of CMCITR and BCOM as of September 2026.


Source: VanEck, Bloomberg. Data as of September 2026.

Commodity Market Outlook

The outlook for commodities remains constructive, with geopolitical uncertainty and supply constraints potentially supporting prices. However, weaker demand, improving supply or easing tensions could weigh on returns. These conditions may affect commodity sectors differently and contribute to continued price volatility.

Learn more about the VanEck CM Commodity Index Fund and the VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF (CMCI), which seek to track, before fees and expenses, the CMCITR.

Disclosures

Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned is unknown. Information provided by third party sources is believed to be reliable and has not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third-party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

All indices are unmanaged and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

1The UBS Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCITR) is a total return rules-based composite benchmark index diversified across 29 commodity components from within five sectors, specifically energy, precious metals, industrial metals, agriculture and livestock.

2Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) provides broad-based exposure to commodities, and no single commodity or commodity sector dominates the index. Rather than being driven by micro-economic events affecting one commodity market or sector, the diversified commodity exposure of BCOM potentially reduces volatility in comparison with non-diversified commodity investments.

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Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.

VanEck CM Commodity Index Fund: You can lose money by investing in the Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. Commodities are assets that have tangible properties, such as oil, metals, and agriculture. Commodities and commodity-linked derivatives may be affected by overall market movements and other factors that affect the value of a particular industry or commodity, such as weather, disease, embargoes or political or regulatory developments. The value of a commodity-linked derivative is generally based on price movements of a commodity, a commodity futures contract, a commodity index or other economic variables based on the commodity markets. Derivatives use leverage, which may exaggerate a loss. An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, but are not limited to, risks related to active management, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodity regulatory, credit, derivatives counterparty, derivatives, government-related bond, index tracking, industry concentration, investments in money market funds, interest rate, LIBOR replacement, market, operational, and subsidiary investment risk, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. The use of commodity-linked derivatives such as swaps, commodity-linked structured notes and futures entails substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value, lack of a secondary market, increased volatility, correlation, liquidity, interest-rate, valuation and tax risks. Gains and losses from speculative positions in derivatives may be much greater than the derivative’s cost. At any time, the risk of loss of any individual security held by the Fund could be significantly higher than 50% of the security’s value. Investment in commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors. The Fund’s investment in commodity-linked derivative instruments may subject the Fund to greater volatility than investment in traditional securities.

VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF: An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in the agricultural commodity sector, commodities and commodity-linked instruments, commodities and commodity-linked instruments tax, derivatives counterparty, energy commodity sector, metals commodity sector, U.S. treasury bills, Subsidiary investment, commodity regulatory and tax risks with respect to investments in the Subsidiary, gap, cash transactions, credit, debt securities, interest rate, derivatives, commodity index tracking, repurchase agreements, regulatory, market, operational, authorized participant concentration, new fund, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified, and commodity index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. The use of commodity-linked derivatives such as swaps, commodity-linked structured notes and futures entails substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value, lack of a secondary market, increased volatility, correlation, liquidity, interest-rate, valuation and tax risks. Investment in commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors. The Fund’s investment in commodity-linked derivative instruments may subject the Fund to greater volatility than investment in traditional securities. The level of derivatives counterparty risk may be heightened due to the Fund currently only having a single counterparty available with which to enter into swap contracts on the Index.

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