Miners Find Their Mojo as Gold Consolidates
12 September 2025
Read Time 5 MIN
Monthly gold market and economic insights from Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, featuring her distinctive views on mining and gold’s portfolio benefits.
Key Takeaways:
- Gold range-bound near $3,300/oz, with catalysts like Fed turmoil and global risks boosting safe-haven demand
- Gold miners surged in August on strong earnings and capital discipline
- Signs of a sector re-rating suggest gold equities may be entering a new bull cycle
Policy Whiplash, Golden Calm
Gold continues to be supported by heightened uncertainty and volatility stemming from persistent global geopolitical and trade tensions and mixed economic signals. In August, gold itself became entangled in the trade-tariff chaos when news reports suggested that the U.S. had imposed tariffs on 1-kilogram and 100-ounce bars of gold1. The White House and President Trump later reassured markets that gold will not be subject to tariffs2. TACO, indeed! The gold tariff fiasco exemplifies the confusing policy environment in the U.S., with markets trying to re-interpret and price in rapidly changing (and conflicting) information daily.
Gold Holds the Line
The gold price has been range-bound around the $3,300 per ounce level following its strong rally post “liberation” day in April3. This sideways action does not surprise us. In recent years, after significant moves to new highs, the gold price tends to consolidate around a new, higher base before the next catalyst emerges that drives it to the next level. While there are plenty of potential catalysts at present, the timing is impossible to predict, but anything that threatens the stability of the global financial system could lead to a surge in safe-haven demand for gold.
From Tariff Talk to Rally Walk
We had a taste of what some of those catalysts may look like on August 20, when President Trump called for the resignation of – and days later announced he had fired – U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) Governor Lisa Cook4. This escalation in assaults on the Fed by the current administration raised fears that the Fed could lose its independence, threatening the stability and credibility of the world’s most important central bank. Gold rallied in response, also supported by increased probabilities of a Fed cut in September and a weaker dollar, closing at $3,447.95 per ounce on August 29, a $158.02 (4.80%) gain for the month5.
As of 31 August, gold was up 78% over the past five years (31 August 2020 – 31 August 2025). Investors should keep in mind that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, and that investment in gold is subject to risks, including volatility, the risk of investing in natural resources, and the possible loss of principal. Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. Returns on this investment may increase or decrease as a result of USD/EUR currency movements.
Calm Metal, Hot Miners
The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) (“GDM”) was up a whopping 21.73% during the month6, while the mid-tier and small cap index, MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners (MVGDXJTR), was up 23.35%7. The gold price increase led to an amplified gain for the gold equities, as expected, reflecting their leverage to the metal price. However, the substantial outperformance suggests other factors, beyond the gold price, supported gold mining shares in August. We believe a key driver was a very strong Q2 2025 earnings season: companies generally reported financial and operating results that met or exceeded expectations, with many companies reporting record revenues and free cash flow. Most companies maintained their yearly guidance, and many larger players reiterated their commitment to higher shareholder returns via dividend payments and share buybacks. Investors seemed reassured that higher gold prices are indeed translating into higher margins, higher profitability, lower debt and enhanced growth prospects for the industry. And while August was not a bad month for broader equities, helped by mega-cap tech dominance and optimistic rate-cut speculation, the S&P 500® Index’s monthly increase of approximately 2%8 paled in comparison to the gold miners’ advance. Richly valued U.S. equities, concerns that growth of mega-cap stocks may be fading and high concentration in AI/tech stocks may also be driving portfolio diversification and rotation of capital that is benefiting gold stocks.
Miners Find Their Mojo
After almost two decades of persistent de-rating, could gold equities finally be getting their mojo back? Our data seems to suggest that it could be the case. We have been tracking the relationship between gold bullion and gold equities (GDM) since 2001 (see chart below) and have identified six clear (strong) trends, indicating a significant and prolonged de-rating of the gold mining sector since 2007. A de-rating occurs when a trendline shifts to the right and/or downward. De-ratings in the past were the result of companies consistently disappointing investors. Examples include massively out-of-the-money hedge books in the 2000’s; over indebtedness and low returns on capital in the 2010’s; and missing production and cost targets in the early 2020’s. Now investors are seeing expanding margins, low debt, capital-allocation discipline, and companies doing what they said they would do this year. While it is too early to tell if a new valuation trend is forming, August data is encouraging and may signal the beginning of a new bull cycle for gold mining stocks. For reference, the bull-market trend of 2001-2007 would imply a GDM value of approximately 6,000 at today’s spot gold price, compared to its present value of around 1,800. A return of those historical sector multiples may seem unrealistic and it’s not part of our outlook, but a significant re-rating of the sector is in the cards, in our view. Investors must keep in mind that past performance is not indicative of future results.
As mentioned above, the chart below maps gold prices against the GDM since 2001, highlighting the six trends—and a potential re-rating with a steeper “new trend” emerging since mid-August 2025.
Gold vs NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index
2001 - 2025 Weekly Close
Data as of September 4, 2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
To receive more Gold Investing insights, sign up to our newsletter.
1 Reuters. (07.08.2025)
2 Reuters. (11.08.2025)
3 World Gold Council. (31.08.2025)
4 Reuters, Yahoo Finance. (20.08.2025)
5 World Gold Council. (31.08.2025)
6 FT. (30.08.2025)
7 MarketVector. (31.08.2025)
8 FT. (30.08.2025)
Sources for other data/information unless otherwise indicated: Bloomberg and company research, August 2025.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This is marketing communication. Please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS and to the KID/KIID before making any final investment decisions. These documents are available in English and the KIDs/KIIDs in local languages and can be obtained free of charge at www.vaneck.com, from VanEck Asset Management B.V. (the “Management Company”) or, where applicable, from the relevant appointed facility agent for your country.
For investors in Switzerland: VanEck Switzerland AG, with registered office in Genferstrasse 21, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland, has been appointed as distributor of VanEck´s products in Switzerland by the Management Company. A copy of the latest prospectus, the Articles, the Key Information Document, the annual report and semi-annual report can be found on our website www.vaneck.com or can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: Zeidler Regulatory Services (Switzerland) AG, Stadthausstrasse 14, CH-8400 Winterthur, Switzerland. Swiss paying agent: Helvetische Bank AG, Seefeldstrasse 215, CH-8008 Zürich.
For investors in the UK: This is a marketing communication targeted to FCA regulated financial intermediaries. Retail clients should not rely on any of the information provided and should seek assistance from a financial intermediary for all investment guidance and advice. VanEck Securities UK Limited (FRN: 1002854) is an Appointed Representative of Sturgeon Ventures LLP (FRN: 452811), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, to distribute VanEck´s products to FCA regulated firms such as financial intermediaries and Wealth Managers.
This information originates from VanEck (Europe) GmbH, which is authorized as an EEA investment firm under MiFID under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFiD). VanEck (Europe) GmbH has its registered address at Kreuznacher Str. 30, 60486 Frankfurt, Germany, and has been appointed as distributor of VanEck products in Europe by the Management Company. The Management Company is incorporated under Dutch law and registered with the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM).
This material is only intended for general and preliminary information and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. VanEck (Europe) GmbH and its associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision on the basis of this information. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) but not necessarily those of VanEck. Opinions are current as of the publication date and are subject to change with market conditions. Information provided by third party sources is believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed.
The MarketVector™ Global Gold Miners Index is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH (“MarketVector”), Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. VanEck’s ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MarketVector and MarketVector makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in the ETF. Effective September 19, 2025 the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index has been replaced with the MarketVector™ Global Gold Miners Index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
MVIS® Global Junior Gold Miners Index is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH (“MarketVector”), Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. VanEck’s ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MarketVector and MarketVector makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in the ETF. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The S&P 500 Index (“Index”) is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spdji.com. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors must buy and sell units of the UCITS on the secondary market via an intermediary (e.g. a broker) and cannot usually be sold directly back to the UCITS. Brokerage fees may incur. The buying price may exceed, or the selling price may be lower than the current net asset value. The Management Company may terminate the marketing of the UCITS in one or more jurisdictions. The summary of the investor rights is available in English at: complaints-procedure.pdf (vaneck.com). For any unfamiliar technical terms, please refer to ETF Glossary | VanEck.
No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
© VanEck (Europe) GmbH ©VanEck Switzerland AG © VanEck Securities UK Limited
Important Disclosure
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS and to the KID before making any final investment decisions.
This information originates from VanEck (Europe) GmbH, which has been appointed as distributor of VanEck products in Europe by the Management Company VanEck Asset Management B.V., incorporated under Dutch law and registered with the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). VanEck (Europe) GmbH with registered address at Kreuznacher Str. 30, 60486 Frankfurt, Germany, is a financial services provider regulated by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority in Germany (BaFin).
The information is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice VanEck (Europe) GmbH, VanEck Switzerland AG, VanEck Securities UK Limited and their associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this information. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) but not necessarily those of VanEck. Opinions are current as of the publication date and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results. Information provided by third party sources is believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. Brokerage or transaction fees may apply.
All performance information is based on historical data and does not predict future returns. Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal.
No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
© VanEck (Europe) GmbH / VanEck Asset Management B.V.
Related Insights
Related Insights
14 November 2025
16 October 2025
14 November 2025
16 October 2025