Skip directly to Accessibility Notice
  •  Daily Emerging Markets Debt Insights
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Supply shocks and regulations continue to weigh on China’s manufacturing activity gauges. However, services rebounded strongly in September – an encouraging sign for the near-term growth outlook.

    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 19, 2021

    Solving EM Fiscal Dilemmas

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The IMF sees better 2021 and 2022 fiscal outcomes in EM due to the stronger recovery, but Brazil's push for a larger social program was not well received by the market.

     Read more
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 18, 2021

    Growth Headwinds, Hawkish Signals

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China's central bank is not signaling a more aggressive policy support despite moderating growth. The Turkish central bank is about to become the only dove standing.

     Read more
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 15, 2021

    China – An Inflection Point?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Chinese authorities moved to reassure the market by easing some mortgage restrictions and urging developers to meet their debt obligations. EM central banks might have underestimated businesses' ability to adapt under COVID conditions.

     Read more
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 14, 2021

    IMF Meetings – Who’s Behind the Curve?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    We are hearing concerns at the IMF Meetings that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be falling behind the curve. Meanwhile, Chile delivered a larger than expected policy rate hike.

     Read more
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 13, 2021

    IMF Meetings – Identifying Key Risks

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The IMF Meetings raise questions about inflation, growth and tail risks in EM and DM. However, stronger policy frameworks in many EMs put them on more solid ground vs. previous crises.

     Read more
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 12, 2021

    IMF - Growth Faultlines Still A Risk

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The IMF remains concerned about the growth disparity between EM and DM, but it nevertheless made some sizable 2021 GDP upgrades in EMEA and LATAM in its latest World Economic Outlook.

     Read more
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 11, 2021

    EM Asia Policy Rates – How High They Can Go?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The market now prices in at least one full rate hike in all major economies in emerging Asia in the next 12 months. Are these expectations too aggressive?

     Read more
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 08, 2021

    EM Macro Surprises – How Far to Reversal?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The current trends in EM macro surprises are yet to reverse, but intra- and inter-regional divergences give central banks room to normalize their policies at a different pace.

     Read more
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 07, 2021

    Turnarounds – When Common Sense Prevails

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The latest policy turnarounds in EM – especially Poland and Peru – keep bullish hopes alive.

     Read more
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    October 06, 2021

    EM Tightening – Momentum Gets Stronger

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Poland’s surprising 40bps rate hike reassured the market, but various inflation and real policy rate metrics argue for continuing tightening.

     Read more


  •