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  •  Daily Emerging Markets Debt Insights
    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s services PMI pulled back unexpectedly in May, raising concerns about rebalancing. The vaccination ratios provide a likely explanation. The downside surprise also means “no sharp policy turns” for now.

    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 23, 2021

    EM Rate Hawks – First In, First Out?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Russia delivered a hefty 100bps rate hike, but signaled that it might take a pause. Brazil cannot afford such luxury yet, as mid-month inflation accelerated to 8.59% year-on-year.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 22, 2021

    Hawkish Surprises Keep Coming

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Mexico’s inflation keeps surprising to the upside, supporting the market expectation of more rate hikes in the next 3 months. Other EMs are still expected to normalize their policies, but not yet due to headwinds from low vaccination rates.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 21, 2021

    Peak Growth or Peak Concerns?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s financial stability concerns are back in headlines, but the near-term growth outlook remains unfazed.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 20, 2021

    Policy Response and Growth/Rates Dichotomy

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Lower global rates contrast with optimistic growth forecasts. EMs are expected to continue hiking, which should help to bring the average EM real policy rate back to positive territory in early 2022.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 19, 2021

    EM – Local Policies vs. Global Concerns

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    EM central banks will be making rate-setting decisions amongst diverging inflation/growth outlooks and another global risk-off episode.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 16, 2021

    EM Politics – Near-Term Pain, Longer-Term Gain?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Local bonds are bouncing in the recent political hotspots (South Africa, LATAM), but there is a question whether the risk premium will continue to mean-revert or it will have to move higher in the medium-term as the baseline.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 15, 2021

    China Growth – Glass Half Full?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s Q2 growth slowdown was not as sharp as feared. The data flow, financial stability considerations and the level of funding costs will determine if more policy easing is required going forward.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 14, 2021

    EM Rates – Making Sense of Pivots

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The hawkish narrative is still strong in parts of EM, but there are some dovish pivots as well – the release of China’s Q2 GDP later today will signal whether we should expect more. 

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 13, 2021

    China Foreign Trade Sends Mixed Signals

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s softening commodity imports seem to corroborate the “recovery speed bump” story, but a stronger exports growth is a near-term tailwind.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    July 12, 2021

    Road to Redemption Hits a Speed Bump

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Political developments weigh on bonds and currencies’ performance in South Africa and Brazil.

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