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  • Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 10, 2021

    Surging Commodity Prices – Friend or Foe?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Surging commodity prices can create a strong tailwind for EM FX. Pay attention to country specifics as regards the impact of higher food prices on EM inflation.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 07, 2021

    EM Exports – Rebalancing on the Way?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s exports beat consensus, but its global exports share is set to decline as other EM benefit from the re-opening. Mexico’s inflation jumped higher, reinforcing expectations of a rate hike.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 06, 2021

    EM Rates – No Deviations From Status Quo

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Brazil maintained the same pace of rate hikes (75bps) and guidance. Turkey remained on hold with a seemingly hawkish statement – but is it just lip service?

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 05, 2021

    EM – Beware of Base Effect Illusion

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    A very low base effect can generate “oversized” data releases in EM in the next couple of months. India’s central bank surprised with additional measures to support growth.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 04, 2021

    EM Activity Gauges – Still Expanding

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Activity gauges in most EM stayed in expansion zone in April. Brazil’s tax reform shows signs of life – we hope the rapporteur’s presentation will not extinguish them.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    May 03, 2021

    LATAM – Old Risks Are Back

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    LATAM policy and political risks are back on the front burner. A prospect of an early rate cut in Turkey looks more real after below-consensus inflation.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    April 30, 2021

    China’s Mixed Activity Signals – What’s Next?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    China’s mixed activity signals raised concerns about the pace of normalization. Brazil’s encouraging fiscal news raised hopes that the worst is over.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    April 29, 2021

    U.S. Fed and EM – Carry On!

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    The dovish Fed and solid U.S. growth create a supportive backdrop for EM, but the vaccine rollout will matter for the sequential recovery. Turkey issued a hawkish inflation report – next stop is the rate-setting meeting.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    April 28, 2021

    Rollout, Rotation, Reflation?

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    Rising global commodity prices and the idea of “reflation’s rotation” keep the market occupied going into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting. Brazil is making additional preparations to make sure the 2021 budget stays on track.

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    Emerging Markets Debt Daily

    April 27, 2021

    Global Growth Revisions – EM-DM Divide

    by Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy

    EM are still expected to grow faster than DM in 2021, but the growth differential is narrowing. A prospect of the far-left political turn in Peru is weighing on local assets.

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