Immense Challenges Ahead Support GoldJoe Foster, Portfolio Manager, Gold StrategyNovember 13, 2020
Gold Consolidated in October on Inverse Dollar Relationship
Gold continued to consolidate during October in the $1,850 to $1,950 per ounce range, trading inversely to the U.S. dollar. The dollar, in turn, responded to risk on/off sentiment in the stock market, trading higher (pushing gold lower) on risk-off days of stock market weakness. Gold fell sharply to $1,874 per ounce early in the month when the stock market declined (with the dollar strengthening) in reaction to President Trump’s orders to stop negotiations on a pandemic stimulus package. Gold then traded above $1,900 per ounce for most of the month before another sharp selloff to $1,865 per ounce when a resurgence of Covid in Europe forced new lockdowns in France and Germany and caused another stock market decline, accompanied by a rise in the dollar. Gold ended the month with a $7.01 (0.4%) loss at $1,878.81.
Understanding the Gold/Stock Correlation
The recent trading action may have some investors confused, as gold weakness has been correlating with falls in the stock market. Many assume that gold, as a safe haven, should have a negative correlation with the stock market. In fact, gold’s longer-term correlation with the S&P 5001 is essentially zero, which means they have no lasting correlation.* In other words, sometimes they correlate and sometimes they don’t. The primary drivers of the gold price are inverse (negative) correlations to the dollar and real interest rates, and a positive correlation to systemic financial risks. At the moment, the market is using the dollar as a risk off safe haven, which is working against gold. We believe this will prove temporary, until new systemic risks emerge that drive gold higher.
Gold Stocks Meeting Expectations, Increasing Dividends
Gold stocks continued to consolidate with gold. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)2 fell 4.2%, while the MVIS Junior Global Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)3 declined 4.3%. In late October, gold producers began reporting third quarter results. So far all companies have met expectations and several have increased their dividends, highlighted by Newmont Mining’s (7.1% of net assets) 60% increase, resulting in a North American industry-leading 2.7% yield.
Gains Despite Surplus Demonstrate Role as Financial Asset?
The World Gold Council (WGC) released its third quarter Gold Demand Trends. Year-to-date demand totaled 2,972 tonnes, 10% below the same period in 2019. The pandemic caused jewelry and central bank demand to plummet; jewelry demand is down 42% from last year while central banks bought 66% less. This was partially offset by record investment demand from gold bullion exchange traded products (ETPs) and strong bar and coin demand. We expect pandemic-related demand weakness to continue into 2021.
According the WGC, year-to-date, total mine supply of 2,477 tonnes was down 5% from last year due mainly to lockdowns earlier in the year. Recycled scrap, at 944 tonnes, was roughly equal to last year. Total supply of 3,421 tonnes resulted in a substantial surplus of 449 tonnes. Despite the 15% supply surplus, the gold price has gained 23.8% this year. We always tell investors that physical supply-demand fundamentals used for other commodities don’t work for gold. Unlike other commodities, gold is a financial asset that is hoarded like stocks, bonds or currency. All of the roughly 200,000 tonnes of gold ever mined is available to the market as mostly bars, coins or jewelry. This year’s surplus is a drop in the ocean relative to the above-ground stock of gold, which the vast majority of owners are happy to keep at current prices. Bull markets are driven by investment demand for gold as a safe haven and store of wealth. The level of gold ETPs, bar and coin demand are the best physical gauges of price trends.
Looking to the Past to See What’s Ahead
As of this writing (Nov 4), it looks like the Republicans have picked up a few seats in the House of Representatives, which remains Democratic. The Senate appears to remain tilted to the Republicans. The presidency looks to favor Biden, although the results are so close they might be contested. One thing for sure is that the “blue sweep” forecasted by many polls and news outlets was wrong. Congress remains divided, which means gridlock if Biden indeed wins.
A look at the Obama/Biden economy might indicate where the economy is heading in the coming four years. Barack Obama and Joe Biden were able to build their progressive agenda with higher taxes and increased regulations. As a result, gross domestic product (GDP) growth during the 2010 – 2016 expansion tanked to an 80-year low of 2.2%. Employment and income growth stagnated. With a divided Congress, we believe Mr. Biden will probably not be able to raise personal or corporate taxes as outlined in his campaign. His desire to increase spending by up to $5.4 trillion over ten years on energy initiatives, health care and other social programs is also likely to be curtailed. We believe he will attempt to reach his goals by burdening the economy with new regulations and executive orders.
Regardless of who wins the presidency, the challenges are overwhelming. The pandemic will probably be with us for most of 2021. Many sectors will remain in recession. Student loan and mortgage forbearance orders will expire. Home foreclosures and rental evictions are expected to escalate. Small business pandemic programs have been exhausted. Federal debt, at just over $20 trillion, is expected to increase by another $13 trillion in the next decade, according the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), driven by slow growth, an aging population, rising health care costs and debt service payments. U.S. corporate bankruptcies posted their worst third quarter ever. According to Blackrock, the scale of corporate restructuring could exceed the 2008 financial crisis peak. The amount of debt below investment grade has more than doubled to $5.7 trillion since 2007. Moody’s analytics estimates state budget shortfalls through 2022 could total $434 billion in only the third nationwide decline in combined state revenue in 90 years.
The Biggest Concern Reserved for the Fed
The challenges are daunting, but we believe a possible alliance between the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the government is even more worrying. Over the past couple of months, there has been a steady stream of comments from top Fed officials encouraging the government to pass more deficit spending to prop up the economy. The propensity of Washington politicians to borrow and spend has always seemed endless. Any vestiges of fiscal prudence and discipline were abandoned by Democrats in the Obama years, then by Republicans in the Trump years. Now the Fed is cheering them on with comments like “The lack of fiscal policy is a much bigger problem than what we’re doing with our balance sheet” or “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods”. The Fed appears to be compromising its independence, taking sides in a political debate for the first time in its history.
At the moment we are sure the Fed sees its comments targeting lawmakers and the Treasury as temporary to fight the pandemic crisis. However, if we follow the path of the global financial crisis (GFC) stimulus as a guide, from 2015 to 2018 the Fed tried tightening policy to normalize rates and its balance sheet. It failed when, in 2019, it felt compelled to reverse course in the midst of the lowest unemployment and strongest economy in decades. Low rates and a bloated balance sheet remained as the pandemic hit, and the Fed was unable to end what it started in 2008.
We believe the Fed has again reached a point of no return, where it is powerless to move away from radical GFC and pandemic monetary policies. In fact, the possible politicization of the Fed opens the door to even more extreme policies. With deficits rising by the trillions, eventually markets might choke on U.S. treasuries. We would not be surprised to see the government skip borrowing in favor of unbridled printing to fund the Treasury. What politician can resist the lure of free money? What Fed official can resist the elusive 2%+ inflation target that monetization of the Treasury would likely bring? Modern Monetary Theory or some similar monetization, popular among progressives, might be adopted under Joe Biden, bringing with it unwanted levels of inflation amid weak economic growth, or stagflation.
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of October 31, 2020 unless otherwise noted.
* Source: VanEck, FactSet.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1S&P 500® is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 U.S. stocks from a broad range of industries. 2NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 3MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by VanEck Vectors ETF Trust (the “Trust”) in connection with VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (the “Fund”). Neither the Trust nor the Fund is sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding the Trust or the Fund or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Index”) is the exclusive property of MV Index Solutions GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MV Index Solutions GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (the “Fund”) is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MV Index Solutions GmbH and MV Index Solutions GmbH makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in the Fund.
The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spdji.com. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
About VanEck International Investors Gold Fund: You can lose money by investing in the Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. The Fund is subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. The Fund’s overall portfolio may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. The Fund’s investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. The Fund is subject to risks associated with investments in Canadian issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
About VanEck Vectors® Gold Miners ETF (GDX®) and VanEck Vectors® Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ®): An investment in the Funds may be subject to risks which include, among others, investing in gold and silver mining companies, Canadian issuers, foreign securities, foreign currency, depositary receipts, small- and medium-capitalization companies, equity securities, market, operational, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management risk, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified and concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Funds. Foreign investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, and changes in currency exchange rates which may negatively impact the Funds’ return. Small- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Funds’ assets may be concentrated in a particular sector and may be subject to more risk than investments in a diverse group of sectors.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for performance information current to the most recent month end and for a free prospectus and summary prospectus. An investor should consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this as well as other information. Please read them carefully before investing.
© 2020 VanEck