VanEck Crypto Monthly Recap for November 2025

Please note that VanEck may have a position(s) in the digital asset(s) described below.

Key Takeaways:

• Aggressive selling pressure drove one of Bitcoin’s weakest momentum readings since 2022, and US trading hours accounted for most of November’s decline.
• Onchain activity weakened across all major categories, with blockchain revenues, DEX volumes, and perp funding rates falling sharply while stablecoin supply pulled back from October’s peak.
• Market structure signals caution but not collapse, as leverage reset to April lows, ETP outflows remained manageable, and institutional participation, combined with lower volatility, point to a smaller drawdown than prior cycles.

Price Returns

Source: Bloomberg as of 12/01/2025. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Crypto investors felt like they were tossed through a washing machine in November, as relentless selling pressure shook coins loose from weaker hands. The result was that Bitcoin reached the lowest 30-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings (~32) since the de-peg of Lido ETH in June 2022. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to identify overbought or oversold conditions. BTC, ETH, and SOL each fell (-23%), (-27%), and (-31%). Crypto selloffs were heavily concentrated during US trading sessions, which contributed roughly 85% of November BTC losses.

Though the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks Coinbase’s BTC price premium to non-US exchanges, briefly turned positive over Thanksgiving weekend, the index was negative for the vast majority of November. The “flush” in November 2025 somewhat mirrors the one crypto experienced after Trump’s tariffs in April 2025, when BTC fell from $109K to $76K. The result of recent price action is that (~55%) of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit, which marks the lowest reading since September 2023. In the previous bear market, Bitcoin supply in profit reached a low of (~31%) in November 2022 after the collapse of FTX.

MarketVector Smart Contract Leaders Index (MVSCLE) Fell by -25% in November

Source: Artemis XYZ as of 11/25/2025. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Open interest in crypto futures continued to decline from October, reaching the lowest levels, $29B, since the chaos of the tariff market reaction in April 2025. BTC ETP outflows in BTC terms were (-2.5%) while ETH ETP redemptions corresponded to (-8%) of AUM measured in ETH. The extreme levels of uncertainty drove 30-day trailing volatility to the mid-40s, approaching the lower levels seen in April 2025, when volatility averaged above 50. Besides broader concerns about AI spending and Federal Reserve policy, crypto traders worried about emerging narratives around quantum computing affecting Bitcoin encryption, Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) weakness, and selling by ancient whales.

Cumulative BTC Returns by Session 10/24 - 11/24

Source: Glassnode as of 11/25/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

This dismal backdrop translated into weak onchain fundamentals with blockchain revenues down (-37%) m/m to reach ~$200M in November. DEX volumes across all chains were down (-26%) m/m and (-35%) y/y. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid gained more market share of blockchain earnings, reaching (40%) of the market to gross $80M on the month. After the conclusion of the perpetual future DEX mania of October, BNB’s revenues have fallen (-76%) m/m, dropping it to fifth place in blockchain revenues. Stablecoin transfer volumes were down (-19%) m/m across all chains, but still showed y/y growth of (+54%). In that category, Ethereum continues to dominate, posting roughly the same volumes as the next four competitors combined.

Hyperliquid Revenue Gains as BNB Fades

Source: Artemis XYZ as of 11/15/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Stablecoins on blockchain also pulled back after reaching an all-time high of 308B in October, declining to 304B at the end of November. Though USDC lost (-2%) or 1.2B of its market capitalization, Ethena’s USDE lost (-30%) m/m or nearly (-50%) off its mid-October high (14B-$7B). The decline in overall stablecoins partly relates to the compressing rates environment for crypto. The best gauge of blockchain yields, the trailing 30-day perp funding rates, fell as low as (3.8%) after averaging (7-8%) over the summer. These yields reflect crypto traders’ willingness to take directional risk, and current levels are the lowest since October 2023. With respect to Ethena, the substantial decline is most likely attributable to the peg break it experienced due to market chaos on October 10, when some exchanges priced USDE as low as $0.65 rather than $1.00. Another bit of bad news for stablecoins came at the end of the month when S&P downgraded Tether’s rating for peg stability from 4 (constrained) to 5 (weak), which is S&P’s lowest rating.

Top Blockchains by Key Metrics in November

Source: Artemis XYZ as of 11/25/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

As an ending note, we would like to remember one of the best F1 drivers of all time, Ayrton Senna. Ayrton relished rainy race days because wet conditions amplified his bold, precise skills allowing him to overcome substantial deficits to win races. When other drivers dialed back their risk tolerances, Ayrton increased his and benefited enormously. Chaotic times offer immense opportunities for the disciplined investor. While we do not know when this downpour will end, we are carefully positioning our portfolios for the sunny times to come.

30-Day Correlation BTC/Nasdaq Broke 1-Year Highs

Source: Artemis XYZ as of 11/25/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Top Crypto Questions from Clients This Month

1. Are bitcoin whales selling?

Bitcoin Spent Volume from 5+ Year Holders (30-Day Moving Average)

Source: Glassnode as of 11/26/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

We have seen a modest uptick in selling of older cohorts of BTC holdings. As we can see in the chart above, this selling by older cohorts is far below earlier peaks. The largest reductions in positions have occurred in the 2-5-year holding band. This cohort has dropped in total BTC holdings by (-31%) since November 2023. These holders appear to be positioning based on their interpretation of Bitcoin’s place in the 4-year cycle. Zooming out, while the percentage of supply >5 years old has remained consistent at (30.5%), we have seen a massive drop in % the supply >2 years old category, moving from (57%) in January 2024 to (48%) today. All the while, short-term active supply, <6M Old, has surged from (22%) in June 2025 to (31%) today, which is the highest level since July 2021.

2. Is it too late to buy bitcoin?

In our opinion, it is difficult to call any level ‘too late’ for BTC, and these levels may reflect short-term panic more than a long-term view of fundamental potential. BTC recently experienced a greater than (-30%) drawdown, which mirrors past pullbacks during bull markets in 2017 and 2021.

3. Is crypto in a bubble?

Some crypto tokens certainly need to be repriced, including those associated with ghost blockchains and low-utility applications. However, we believe there are still worthwhile investment opportunities for those with a very high risk tolerance.

4. Have we passed the price peak in Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

Many 4-year cycle forecasters divine that we have already reached the price apex of this cycle. However, lower volatility and the explosion in real-money involvement suggest a smaller drawdown than previous cycles. Thus, VanEck bought the dip in model portfolios at ~$80K on Friday, November 21st, seeing an attractive risk/reward, with technical indicators signaling a near-term bottom. However, we remain flexible and not dogmatic about the cycle with a healthy respect for the 4-year patterns.

The underlying dynamics of the 4-year cycle may have changed as Bitcoin miners diversified their income streams and institutional players viewed BTC as a unique macro asset. That noted, many in the crypto community, including large whales, believe that the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is infallible. If these parties act, they will likely weigh on prices.

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