Q4 2025 Outlook: Escaping the Reckoning?

When CEO Jan van Eck joined Adam Taggart on the Thoughtful Money podcast to share his latest quarterly outlook, he said that he is “happy with eyes wide open”. Fiscal progress is real and markets are finding balance, but selectivity still matters as AI evolves, credit tightens and policy shifts continue. In this wide-ranging discussion, Jan outlines where he sees resilience and risk as we approach 2026.

Here are key moments from the conversation:

• [7:09] Understand the AI compute shortage: Token demand is up 38x, but chip and model efficiency help balance supply. 
• [17:13] Nvidia may not be overpriced: Growth rate and visible demand through 2027 suggest valuations are justified.  
• [23:27] Watch nuclear valuations: After exceptional returns, this theme now trades at nosebleed levels
• [39:10] Open AI’s weak link: Now part of the new “Mag 8”, its financing remains a vulnerability.
• [41:42] Gaming emerges as AI surprise: Faster development and improved video quality may make gaming the next major AI beneficiary.
• [46:17] Gold’s long-term case stays strong: Central bank demand, fiscal strain, and inflation risk continue to support the metal.
• [56:37] Private credit faces quality test: Recent bankruptcies emphasize need for liquidity and underwriting strength.
• [1:02:53] Not all BDCs are created equal: Liquidity and quality will separate winners from the laggards as conditions tighten.
• [1:11:54] Fiscal progress takes shape: U.S. deficit has narrowed to roughly 5.9% of GDP, a modest but meaningful improvement.