June Market Recap: Policy Shifts. Themes Endure.

Trump Drives Headlines and Volatility

Donald Trump is once again dominating market headlines. This week alone, headlines included Bloomberg’s Trump’s 50% Levy on Brazil Shows World Nothing Is Off Limits and WSJ’s Dow Futures Slip After Trump Unveils 50% Brazil Tariff.

The message is clear: we’re in a period defined by aggressive policy moves and elevated volatility. The market has rallied more than 25% off the lows sparked by “Liberation Day.” Stocks are now at all-time highs, but also increasingly vulnerable. The next market catalyst may not come from earnings or inflation - it may come from a microphone in Washington.

Our Approach: Focused Themes, Real Diversification

We allocate risk through a clear framework: stay prepared for the unknown through diversification, and lean into long-term themes we believe will drive returns.

And let’s be clear - unlike beauty, diversification is not in the eye of the beholder. When we use the term, we mean holding fundamentally differentiated asset classes - stocks, bonds, real assets, and digital assets - in allocations large enough to matter.

Three Core Investment Themes

Our portfolio remains anchored around three structural themes.

First, de-dollarization. Ongoing fiscal excess and rising debt levels are fueling demand for decentralized store-of-value assets like gold and bitcoin.

Second, artificial intelligence. AI is not a sector - it’s an infrastructure shift. It’s reshaping productivity, industries, and global competition.

Third, energy security. Reliable, scalable energy is back in focus. That includes fossil fuels, nuclear, and infrastructure modernization.

Policy Tailwinds: The “Big Beautiful Bill”

Trump’s recently passed “Big Beautiful Bill” accelerates all three of our core themes. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. It directs capital toward domestic chip production, military AI systems, and energy-related AI research. And on energy, the bill prioritizes proven sources - specifically fossil fuels and nuclear - over intermittent alternatives.

Portfolio Activity: Recent Moves

We’ve been active in managing risk and taking advantage of market moves. Recent positioning updates include:

• On June 3, we repositioned along the U.S. Treasury curve to increase our exposure to a steepening yield curve. (Wealth Builder)
• On June 13, we sold oil at $73 after buying in May at $57. A straightforward profit-taking trade. (Traded within a key holding in the VanEck Real Assets ETF which is managed by the MAS team and held in Select Opportunities, Wealth Builder and Real Assets)
• On June 17, we trimmed our nuclear energy exposure after a 30% YTD gain. We remain bullish on the long-term theme but saw an opportunity to lock in gains. (Custom Select Opportunities Models)
• On July 8 and 10, we reduced copper holdings after Trump’s 50% copper tariff sent prices to all-time highs. A price spike of this magnitude, driven by policy, created an attractive exit point. (Traded within a key holding in the VanEck Real Assets ETF which is managed by the MAS team and held in Select Opportunities, Wealth Builder and Real Assets)
• On July 9, we increased our AI exposure through targeted allocations to eSports, video gaming, and broader tech, funded by reductions in value and broad-based equity. (Wealth Builder)

Market Review

Equities:

U.S. stocks are up more than 25% from April lows and at record highs. That said, they lag international peers YTD: the S&P 500 is up 7%, MSCI EAFE up 21%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up 17%. The primary driver of this divergence is currency - the U.S. dollar has fallen nearly 10% versus a basket of developed market currencies.

Fixed Income:

In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.35%. Investor appetite for long-dated Treasuries has become a hot topic as the financial outlook for the U.S. continues to decline. Markets are pricing in 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Credit spreads remain tight, reflecting a broadly stable credit environment.

Real Assets:

In real assets, oil fell to $57 in May and rebounded to $75 in June, driven by geopolitical risk, particularly threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Copper surged to record levels after Trump’s tariff announcement. Gold remains steady between $3,200 and $3,400 after a strong rally from $2,600 earlier this year. Silver and platinum have followed suit. Nuclear stocks, up 30% YTD, continue to benefit from policy momentum and investor flows.

Digital Assets:

Bitcoin has broken out to new all-time highs above $118,000. It continues to benefit from risk-on sentiment, institutional adoption, and rising concern about fiscal sustainability.

Final Thoughts

We are in a new investment regime. Policy swings are large, volatility is elevated, and long-term themes are gaining strength.

We are long innovation through U.S. technology and AI. We are hedging fiat debasement and a declining U.S. dollar through gold and bitcoin. We are diversified across asset classes to stay flexible in the face of uncertainty. And we look to take advantage of volatility at extremes - using dislocations as opportunities to buy and sell with discipline.

We don’t react to headlines - we position around fundamentals, themes, and price.