A Year On: How Quantum Computing Is Growing Up in the Public Markets

When VanEck launched the VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM), Europe's first quantum computing UCITS ETF, a little over a year ago in May 2025, listed quantum computing was still a narrow field with only a handful of investable names. One year on, it looks rather different. Over the past twelve months the sector passed its first major revenue threshold, drew direct government backing, and, most visibly, saw a wave of companies move from private funding rounds onto public exchanges. Quantum computing has not become a finished technology, and its commercial success remains uncertain. But it has started to behave less like a research programme and more like an emerging industry. As the opportunity set has broadened, the fund has grown to above $850 million in assets, though fund size can rise or fall and is not an indicator of performance¹.

Figure 1: Past performance of a hypothetical $100 investment since inception

21 May 2025 – 30 Jun 2026. Past performance is no indication for future performance

Source: VanEck, as of June 30th 2026. Past performance is no indication for future performance. Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. You must read the Prospectus and KID before investing, which are available at the Document section of the fund on www.vaneck.com.

Commercial signals arrived through the year, with aggregate revenue across quantum computing companies crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time, indicating a gradual shift from exploration toward paid, commercial work². Governments moved in the same direction: in May 2026 the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it would take equity stakes across nine quantum companies as part of a roughly $2 billion package, placing quantum alongside semiconductors as a declared strategic priority³. Neither development proves the technology has fully arrived, but together they confirm who is funding it: private customers and public institutions are continuing to commit capital to quantum.

Growing investable universe for quantum computing

The most visible change for investors, though, has been on the exchanges themselves. A year ago, listed pure-play quantum exposure meant a short list of names. Over the past twelve months, QNTM's roster of pure-play holdings has more than doubled from five to eleven, as a wave of companies came to the public markets. What matters is not only the number but the spread. Neutral-atom specialist Infleqtion listed on the NYSE in February 2026, photonic company Xanadu on the Nasdaq and Toronto exchanges in March, and quantum-software firm Horizon Quantum on the Nasdaq in the same month. And in a sign the trend is not solely American, Creotech Quantum was spun off onto the Warsaw Stock Exchange in April⁴. A small and concentrated set of listed names has become a broad cross-section of the field, spanning trapped ions, superconducting circuits, neutral atoms, photonics, software and post-quantum security. All four were added to QNTM at the Q2 2026 index review in June, increasing the fund's exposure to dedicated quantum operators.

The pace has continued beyond the fund. Two of the sector's most significant listings arrived after the cut-off for the most recent index review and so are not yet held in the ETF: Honeywell-backed Quantinuum completed the first traditional quantum IPO to date on the Nasdaq in June 2026, raising roughly $1.68 billion, and Finland's IQM became the first European quantum company to list on a major U.S. exchange in early July, with a parallel listing in Helsinki⁵. Others are in the pipeline, with Pasqal and Seeqc both having filed for U.S. listings⁶. Like many other index-based funds, QNTM adds constituents only at scheduled reviews and according to published eligibility rules, so newly listed companies become candidates for future consideration rather than entering on debut. That measured cadence is itself a discipline, allowing sharp price swings to settle before a stock is considered. The broader point is that the investable universe is widening, and doing so across more than one continent. A larger listed field is also a more competitive one, with more companies now competing both for technological leadership and for investor funding. That competition can support the theme's development, but it can also weigh on individual companies, whose revenues, margins and valuations may come under pressure.

Figure 2: The Quantum Race on the public

Source: VanEck analysis on IPO & company filings, as at July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

Quantinuum, IQM, Pasqal and Seeqc are referenced for illustrative purposes only to describe developments in the quantum computing sector. These companies were not held by QNTM at the time of writing. References to specific companies do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

The long road from lab to market

For all the market activity, quantum computing remains at its core a scientific endeavour, and its commercial success remains uncertain. The theme's foundations were reinforced in October 2025, when the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded for the discovery of macroscopic quantum mechanical tunnelling and energy quantisation in an electric circuit, the physics that underpins today's superconducting qubits⁷. A recognition of that kind speaks to something more durable: the science is advancing, even if the economics are not yet proven. That combination is the essence of an early-stage growth theme, and it is why the associated risks remain high. Most of these companies are lossmaking, their valuations reflect expectations rather than earnings, and their shares have proven highly volatile, capable of large moves on individual headlines.

This helps explain why, beyond the pure-play specialists, established technology leaders anchor quantum research at scale. These are diversified businesses for which quantum is one strand among many, yet which run some of the deepest research programmes in the field: IBM, which began delivering its next-generation Nighthawk processor in early 2026 and is targeting verified quantum advantage by 2026 and fault-tolerant computing by 2029, and Alphabet, whose Willow chip demonstrated what Google described in October 2025 as the first "verifiable" quantum advantage^8,9. Looking beyond the pure-players also reflects a practical reality: much of today's progress is funded from the balance sheets of companies that can afford to invest through a long and uncertain development cycle. Milestones and roadmap dates such as IBM's 2026 and 2029 targets are, however, company goals rather than forecasts, and they may be delayed or missed.

What a year of listings changed, then, is less the risk than the visibility. A theme once accessed mainly through private markets and a few proxies is now represented by a broader, more liquid and more transparent set of public companies, spanning focused specialists and deep-pocketed incumbents, and subject to the disclosure that public markets require. That is what starting to grow up looks like: not a theme that has arrived, but one that has become investable in a more considered way. The universe is widening, the science continues to advance, and the story, on the evidence of this year, is still in its early chapters.