From record gold prices to a fertilizer supply shock, the Strait of Hormuz closure reshaped commodity markets in Q1 2026, accelerating a structural shift in how global resources are valued.

U.S. equities fell in March as oil surged on geopolitical tensions. The Moat Index lagged on no energy exposure, while the SMID Moat Index held up with help from energy and materials.

Gold pulled back amid rising rates and a stronger dollar, but history shows volatility is typical in crises. Strong margins leave miners well positioned if gold stabilizes or moves higher.

The Moat Index added NVIDIA, Broadcom and new names following its quarterly review, as tech dislocations created opportunity, while maintaining a value tilt and notable discount to fair value.

U.S. equity markets shifted from a sector rotation driven by AI disruption fears to a broad sell-off fueled by geopolitical shocks in Iran and a surprisingly weak jobs report, raising stagflation concerns.