Four Years of JEDI: Backing the Space Economy with Conviction

SpaceX, Virgin Galactic and Gogo are referenced for illustrative purposes only to describe structural developments in the space economy. These companies are not held by the VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF (JEDI) at the time of writing. References to specific companies do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

In June 2022, the commercial space economy sat at the edge of most investors’ maps. Launch costs were falling and a new generation of companies was emerging beyond the traditional aerospace giants – yet few vehicles existed to invest in the theme as a whole. VanEck saw a structural shift in the making and built one of Europe’s first ETFs dedicated to it. Four years later, space has moved from a niche curiosity to one of the most anticipated investable themes.

Identifying a Theme Early, and Standing By It

Thematic investing rests on a simple but demanding principle: recognize a structural shift before it becomes consensus and remain invested through the years it takes to unfold. Being early is only half of the discipline; the conviction to stay the course is what gives a long-term theme room to develop. As a pioneer in thematic and innovative investment since 1955, VanEck has built its reputation on opening access to ideas before they reach the mainstream, from gold and natural resources to semiconductors, defense, quantum computing, and now space.

That is what VanEck stands for: helping our clients access tomorrow’s market opportunities with carefully crafted products, and a long-term perspective rather than promises.

Four Years, Defined by Milestones

When the fund launched in June 2022, the commercial space economy still sat at the edge of most investors' maps. Launch costs had fallen sharply over the preceding decade, satellites were becoming far more capable, and a new generation of listed companies was emerging beyond the traditional aerospace giants.

For much of 2022 and 2023, progress was real but easy to overlook. The industry's growth appeared first in operational metrics rather than market valuations or headlines. Global orbital launches increased from 186 in 2022 to 259 in 2024¹. Over the same period, the number of active satellites in orbit surpassed 10,000 for the first time, driven primarily by the deployment of large low-Earth-orbit broadband constellations². These were also years of laying the technological groundworks for the next steps: NASA's Artemis I mission flew an uncrewed Orion spacecraft around the Moon, the first step of NASA's program to return astronauts to the Moon³; and SpaceX conducted the first integrated flight tests of Starship, the most powerful launch system ever built⁴. Beneath the headlines, the investable universe continued to broaden as companies across launch, satellite manufacturing, communications and lunar exploration entered public markets. The industry was clearly advancing, even if investors' attention had not yet fully caught up.

Global Orbital Launches (1957-2025)

Source: Space Stats. (2026). Orbital launches by year. Space Stats

From 2024, that began to change. Space increasingly became viewed as a strategic asset, not only for communications and navigation, but also for national security, resilience, and technological sovereignty. Several milestones reinforced this shift, including the successful validation of NASA's DART planetary-defense mission, which altered the orbit of an asteroid⁵. Most importantly from a commercial perspective, direct-to-device satellite communications moved from concept to reality: AST SpaceMobile completed the world's first voice call and later the first 5G broadband connection from space to an ordinary, unmodified smartphone⁶, while Starlink began testing direct-to-cell services with telecom partners⁷. These developments pointed to an industry maturing simultaneously across exploration, connectivity, and defense. As opportunities expanded into increasingly specialized niches, from orbital servicing and debris removal to synthetic-aperture radar and geospatial intelligence, external forecasts began reflecting the scale of the opportunity. The World Economic Forum and McKinsey estimate the global space economy could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, thus tripling in the next decade⁸.

Through 2025, the different parts of the value chain began to reinforce one another. Satellite connectivity edged closer to commercial reality; Earth-observation data found new AI-driven uses, and steady government demand supported order books across satellite systems, robotics and communications infrastructure. Commercial momentum built alongside it: from NASA's funding of privately operated successors to the International Space Station⁹ to the rollout of new low-Earth-orbit broadband constellations¹⁰. Space was no longer just about reaching orbit, it was increasingly about what could be built, connected and understood from there.

The theme's move into the mainstream became unmistakable in 2026, when SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history (listing on the Nasdaq in June at a valuation above $2 trillion)¹¹ set against a broader backdrop of ambition that included NASA's Artemis II, the first crewed mission back toward the Moon in more than half a century¹². The intensity of that attention carried a lesson for investors in its own right: innovation-led themes rarely move in a straight line, and capital can rotate sharply between established names and new arrivals. That is precisely why JEDI's rules-based approach matters: a theme built on innovation will always throw up both leaders and laggards, and a disciplined methodology lets the portfolio evolve as the industry does. Four years on, the question is no longer whether space is investable, but how best to access it.

The New Space Race – Key IPOs & Milestones

Source: VanEck analysis on IPO & company filings; NASA; ISRO

Early – and Pure – Exposure

Being early is one discipline; being pure is another. Space exposure can be accessed in many ways, but much of it sits inside large aerospace, defense or telecom conglomerates, where space may represent only a fraction of revenue. JEDI was designed to avoid that dilution. It targets companies for which space is central to the business, and spreads exposure across the full value chain rather than concentrating on one or two high-profile names.

That breadth is important. The modern space economy is not a single industry but an ecosystem: launch providers, satellite manufacturers, communications networks, Earth-observation platforms, data-analytics specialists and infrastructure companies all play different roles. The OECD describes the sector as increasingly global, supported by more government space programs, more commercial actors and the maturing of new space systems¹³.

VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF – Top 3 contributors

Source: Morningstar Direct / VanEck; includes holdings since removed from the index. Data as of June 30 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The breadth is easiest to see company by company just looking at the top 3 contributors. These three companies illustrate how the commercial space economy has matured from infrastructure to services: Rocket Lab provides the launch and orbital hardware backbone, while AST SpaceMobile is building the direct-to-device connectivity layer. Planet Labs captures one of the most important shifts: that in the modern space economy, the greatest value is increasingly created not by reaching orbit, but by what you do with the data once you're there.

Together, these businesses trace the full arc of the modern space economy: reaching orbit, building infrastructure in orbit, connecting through orbit and transforming orbital data into commercial intelligence on Earth.

Crucially, not every part of the investment case has worked and that is equally instructive.

VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF – Top 3 detractors

Source: Morningstar Direct / VanEck; includes holdings since removed from the index. Data as of June 30 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Space tourism, once viewed as one of the defining commercial opportunities of the sector, remains far from achieving meaningful scale. Virgin Galactic, among the most widely recognized names in the industry at the start of the decade, lost more than 90% of its value during the fund's lifetime and was removed from the ETF in 2024¹⁴.

The lesson is that technological feasibility and commercial success are not the same thing. Some of the sector's most heavily publicized concepts generated enormous attention but failed to develop sustainable business models. Over the fund's life, the gap between the strongest and weakest performers exceeded 2,600 percentage points, an unusually wide dispersion even by innovation-sector standards. Space remains a highly technical industry in which the dominant technologies, business models and competitive advantages are still being established. Predicting the long-term winners with confidence is exceptionally difficult, and history suggests that many of the companies investors focus on today may not be the ones defining the industry a decade from now.

The Long View

Momentum across the space sector is strong today, but the more important point for investors is the long-term trajectory. Themes like this rarely move in a straight line – periods of enthusiasm can be followed by volatility, and short-term swings are part of investing in innovation. That is why JEDI follows a clear, rules-based index methodology and a balanced, diversified approach across the space value chain, rather than concentrated bets. The aim is durable exposure to a structural theme, not a forecast of where prices go next.

“We were among the first to give European investors a way to participate in the space economy – because that is what VanEck has always done: open the door to opportunities others overlook. Four years on, our belief in the space economy is only stronger – and we are as committed to that vision today as we were on day one.”
- Martijn Rozemuller, CEO, VanEck Europe

Four years on, JEDI has grown from an early idea into an established way to invest in the space economy. Its next chapters – deeper exploration, expanding satellite networks, AI-oriented use cases and the companies still to reach the public markets – are only beginning to unfold. For patient investors, the story is still in its opening chapters.