How China’s Tech Industry Became Too Big to Overlook

References to specific companies are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

In 2026, tech history is being written. A wave of blockbuster US listings has swept equity markets across the frontiers of technology. SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO took the space theme mainstream. Quantinuum’s listing marked the first traditional IPO for commercial quantum computing. Now AI lab Anthropic, last valued privately at around $965 billion, is preparing an IPO that some investors expect could reach $2 trillion¹.

Yet less noticed in the West, China is having its own IPO boom, with memory chipmaker CXMT launching the country’s biggest IPO since 2010, along with notable listings from robotics leader Unitree and AI company Zhipu. More may follow, with AI developer DeepSeek reportedly preparing a Shanghai listing as soon as 2027².

For tech investors outside China, this trend is worth watching. Seeking to overcome demographic and geopolitical challenges, China is steadily building a highly competitive technology industry across diverse fields, from AI and robotics to chips, EVs and renewable energy. While it competes with the United States, its supply chain is increasingly domestic, which could offer useful diversification from US tech. These are early days, though. Many of the companies driving this wave are young and yet to prove sustained profitability and several of 2026’s standout debuts surged on listing before giving back much of those gains just as they have in the US.

China Must Innovate

It’s said necessity is the mother of invention. For China, necessity comes in the form of escaping the demographic trap that brought Japan decades of stagnation from the 1990s, and a need to circumvent US export controls on advanced semiconductor chips.

China’s working-age population peaked in 2015 and is projected to decline from here as its citizens get older. Not only is the proportion of people aged 65 plus projected to rise from 15% in 2026 to 31% by 2050, but also the overall population is estimated to decline from 1.4 billion to 1.26 billion by 2050. That means China must get more productive through technology innovation if it is to avoid Japan-style stagnation³.

Share of population Aged 65+, 1990-2050

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, file POP/06-1, medium variant. 1990–2023 estimates, 2024–2050 projections. China = UN location code 156 (excludes Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR and Taiwan Province of China). World = code 900. High-income countries = code 1503, World Bank income classification as accessed by UN DESA on 8 May 2024; group membership fixed across the series.

Turning to China’s self-sufficiency drive, unlike US tech, which draws on inputs from across the world, China is building an increasingly domestic supply chain. US export controls, introduced to slow China’s access to advanced semiconductors, had the unintended consequence of accelerating Beijing’s domestic build-out⁴.

Reducing dependence on foreign technology, and achieving self-reliance and leadership across the tech value chain, from AI to semiconductors to robotics, is now central to China’s national strategy, as set out in its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026 to 2030)⁵.

The Evidence: It’s Working, And It’s Broad

While China still lags the United States in AI, arguably the foundational technology of our time, it is catching up fast and is the clear leader by volume in a range of other areas. Robotics is a striking example. Chinese makers accounted for more than 97% of global humanoid robot shipments in the first half of 2026, albeit from a small base, and Unitree recently unveiled a robot it says can run faster than Usain Bolt⁶.

In clean energy, China has long-established dominance. For instance, its global market share for photovoltaic panels is at least 80% across manufacturing, from modules to polysilicon⁷.

China’s Share of Global Production in Selected Technologies

Sources: Battery cell production and Electric car production: IEA, Global EV Outlook 2026. Solar manufacturing: IEA, China’s share in global PV manufacturing capacity, 2024 and 2030. Figures are China’s share of global production or manufacturing capacity, 2024 to 2026. Shares are approximate.

And it has established global leadership in the electric vehicles supply chain, controlling nearly 85% of global battery cell production capacity, with substantial shares in cathode and anode materials⁸.

This is evidence of China’s industrial strategy in action. When China commits to an industry, it does so at scale across the supply chain. That approach is well-suited to technology, with AI so dependent on semiconductors and robotics dependent on both. That said, leadership in manufacturing scale has not yet translated into a lead at the technological frontier, particularly in AI and advanced chips.

Why This Matters For Investors

For Western investors focused on US tech, China’s tech industry is becoming too big to overlook. The country is developing fast in many areas and already has leadership in some. What’s more, the increasingly domestic supply chain makes China tech distinct from the US AI sector, which could offer useful diversification.

China’s equity markets are, however, notoriously volatile, and this theme carries risks that should not be underestimated. China’s leadership in some fields is real, but its ambitions in others, notably at the leading edge of AI and semiconductors, may take years to materialize or may fall short. Investors should also weigh China-specific risks, including regulation and state intervention, geopolitical and sanctions exposure, currency and market-access considerations, and the concentration that comes with a single-country focus. For these reasons, a long-term perspective matters. At VanEck, we will be watching developments in this fast-moving tech market in the months to come.