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  • Trends with Benefits

    Trends with Benefits #23: Election Cycles with Jeff Hirsch

    Ed Lopez, Head of ETF Product
    August 25, 2020

    Presidential Patterns

    The Stock Trader’s Almanac is in its fifty-third edition this year and it’s a wonderful collection of market data that is presented not only on a calendar basis but also by trading patterns. From this tome of information one can glean ideas for strategies to take advantage of seasonal patterns or prepare for periodic events like election cycles. Given 2020 is an election year this was definitely something I sought to cover with Jeff. Looking at historical data one can ascertain patterns in market behavior that emerge during the run-up and following a presidential election. For example, the market tends to perform better when a sitting president runs for reelection and market performance between August and October has tended to be a presidential predictor. The market also tends to bottom two years after a presidential election no matter which party wins. When you think of the politics involved and how the economy is manipulated to help the incumbent party stay in power some of this is common sense, but it’s interesting to see the data.

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    While I love talking about the market data, I’ve got to admit I was probably most excited to talk to Jeff about rugby. Not that I went very far in my rugby career, but it had such an impact on my life and I rarely get to talk to someone about it in a professional setting. Beyond the benefits of instilling discipline and teamwork, there’s a sort of international fraternity among those who have played which we talk about.

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    Listen for Jeff’s take on work from home, connected home fitness, deglobalization and cryptocurrency.

    Follow Ed Lopez @ThatEdLopez on Twitter and Jeff Hirsch @AlmanacTrader on Twitter.

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    Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation (an affiliated broker-dealer of Van Eck Associates Corporation) may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) discussed in this podcast.

    The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker(s) but not necessarily those of VanEck. Commentaries are general in nature and should not be construed as investment advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. Any discussion of specific securities/financial instruments mentioned in the commentary is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities. Fund holdings will vary. All indices mentioned are measures of common market sectors and performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Information on holdings, performance and indices can be found at

    All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

    Van Eck Associates Corporation

  • Authored by

    Ed Lopez
    Head of ETF Product

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