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  • Emerging Markets Equity

    Emerging Markets Growth: FinTech, Not Old Banks

    Angus Shillington, Deputy Portfolio Manager
    David Semple, Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
    Oksana Miller , Product Manager
    November 29, 2019
     

    The VanEck Emerging Markets Equity Strategy is a structural growth portfolio that tends not to invest in value-driven, cyclical, large cap names – many of which happen to be state-owned enterprises (“SOEs”). Given the Strategy’s Financials exposure of 31.1% as of October 31, 2019, it is important to understand our weighting in this sector. This write-up aims to explain why the financial companies that we own are more exciting than the large index weights.

    Evolution of the Financials Sector

    In the past, emerging market financials were predominantly comprised of large SOEs that were regulated by governments.Today, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index’s Financials sector is diversified – it is still dominated by Banks but also includes Insurance companies, Consumer Finance, Capital Markets and other financials issuers, as outlined below.


    Financials-Sector-Composition-1999-2019-.png

    Source: Bloomberg, FactSet. Data as of 12/31/1999 and 10/31/2019. Diversified Financials also include Industrial Conglomerates and Thrifts & Mortgage Finance.

    Our Approach to Financials

    We, however, primarily focus on Micro Finance, Insurance and high quality Consumer Banks (please see the chart below). Our companies specialize in the following services, among others: consumer lending, life and health insurance, credit cards, savings, mortgages and auto financing. We buy and hold high conviction names in this space because we believe that these investment opportunities represent visible and persistent growth that will survive and thrive in a rapidly changing asset class.

    MSCI-Emerging-Markets-Index-2019.png

    Source: FactSet. As of 10/31/2019.

    Inside the Financials Sector: EME Portfolio Stock Examples

    Below please find examples of three Financials currently included in our portfolio – Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah (“BTPS”), Ping An Insurance Company of China (“Ping An”) and HDFC Bank Limited (“HDFC”). We believe that each one of these companies is unique and exhibits structural growth at a reasonable price (“S GARP”) characteristics that we seek to identify and invest in across emerging markets around the world.

    Micro Lending: BTPS is empowering rural impoverished women in Indonesia

    Why we invest in this company:
    • BTPS has a low-risk business model that lends to groups of impoverished women who co-underwrite each other.
    • It has high social impact, allowing these women to own and manage micro businesses where working capital would typically be unavailable to them.
    • The company forecasts minimum lending growth of 20% from structurally growing market penetration over the next five-seven years.
    • It maintains high and persistent ROE, a secondary structural driver.
    • Low and persistent non-performing loans result in a lower risk profile than most MSCI EM Index financials.

    Insurance: Ping An is an innovative provider of life and non-life insurance in China

    Why we invest in this company:
    • Insurance tends to follow general/structural middle class consumption trends in emerging markets, especially in China.
    • Ping An has scale, product superiority and technology moats compared to most SOE competitors.
    • Technology leadership has accelerated growth and enabled complimentary new business verticals to leverage/cross sell their 500 million active customers.
    • We perceive regulatory constraints to be a low risk to this business.

    High Quality Consumer Bank: HDFC is leveraging the structurally growing and emerging consumer with massive visible runway to growth in India.

    Why we invest in this company:
    • Secured and unsecured consumer lending tends to be less risky and grow structurally in emerging markets (e.g. mortgages, credit cards, etc.).
    • HDFC is good at both lending money and, more importantly, getting it back. Credit costs are structurally low.
    • As India formalizes and digitizes, use of formal banking products is expected to grow substantially.
    • Technology, product and pricing advantages should ensure HDFC achieves its structural target of growing customer number from 20 million today to 50 million in five years.

    DISCLOSURE

    This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. The reader should not assume that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck.

    All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.