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EM Bond Performance Remains Solid in 2025

May 15, 2025

Read Time 4 MIN

EM Bonds continue to gain ground in 2025, despite many external risks.

The VanEck Emerging Markets Bond Fund was up 1.39% in April, compared to up 1.51% for its benchmark. Year-to-date, the fund is up 5.94%, compared to 4.84% for its benchmark. During April, China led outperformers; the team continues to see the worst of the Chinese property crisis as behind us. Underweights in Czechia and Malaysia led underperformers. We remain cautious on US dollar (USD) duration, USD spread duration, but open on local-currency duration. The fund has around 60% in curated local currency, 40% in USD bonds, with a noteworthy underweight to Brazil and South Africa in local currency. Carry is 8.2%, YTW is 9.9%, and duration is 5.3.

Last month we attended the IMF Spring Meetings. Read our key takeaways here.

Average Annual Total Returns* (%) (In USD)

As of April 30, 2025
  1 Mo 3 Mo YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs
Class A: NAV (Inception 07/09/12) 1.24 2.39 4.69 9.20 6.42 7.11 2.34
Class A: Maximum 5.75% load -4.58 -3.50 -1.33 2.92 4.34 5.85 1.73
Class I: NAV (Inception 07/09/12) 1.28 2.48 4.63 9.51 6.75 7.45 2.64
Class Y: NAV (Inception 07/09/12) 1.23 2.44 4.76 9.44 6.65 7.36 2.57
50% GBI-EM/50% EMBI 1.51 3.04 4.84 9.31 5.71 2.62 2.19

As of March 31, 2025
  1 Mo 3 Mo YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs
Class A: NAV (Inception 07/09/12) -0.30 3.40 3.40 6.32 4.18 7.60 2.34
Class A: Maximum 5.75% load -6.03 -2.54 -2.54 0.21 2.15 6.33 1.73
Class I: NAV (Inception 07/09/12) -0.27 3.31 3.31 6.53 4.54 7.92 2.64
Class Y: NAV (Inception 07/09/12) -0.28 3.46 3.46 6.45 4.42 7.84 2.57
50% GBI-EM/50% EMBI 0.39 3.28 3.28 5.42 3.11 2.94 2.27

* Returns less than one year are not annualized.

Expenses: Class A: Gross 1.83%, Net 1.21%; Class I: Gross 1.37%, Net 0.86%; Class Y: Gross 1.33%, Net 0.96%. Expenses are capped contractually until 05/01/26 at 1.20% for Class A, 0.85% for Class I, 0.95% for Class Y. Caps exclude acquired fund fees and expenses, interest, trading, dividends, and interest payments of securities sold short, taxes, and extraordinary expenses.

The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance may be lower or higher than performance data quoted. Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for performance current to the most recent month ended.

The “Net Asset Value” (NAV) of a Fund is determined at the close of each business day, and represents the dollar value of one share of the fund; it is calculated by taking the total assets of the fund, subtracting total liabilities, and dividing by the total number of shares outstanding. The NAV is not necessarily the same as the ETF’s intraday trading value. Investors should not expect to buy or sell shares at NAV.

Exposure Types and Significant Changes

The changes to our top positions are summarized below. Our largest positions in April were Mexico, Brazil, Thailand, South Africa, and Poland.

  • We increased our local currency exposure in Brazil, Thailand, and South Africa. Brazil shows signs of tentative fiscal improvement, its direct trade exposure to the U.S. is limited, inflation expectations had peaked bringing us closer to the end of the tightening cycle. These factors improved the policy and technical test scores for the country. Thailand is a higher-yielding beneficiary of China’s restrained approach to the trade war, which improves its technical test score. South Africa’s budget debates are not over yet, but the main coalition partners confirmed that the government of national unity remains in place, improving the policy test score for the country.
  • We also increased our hard currency sovereign exposure in Ecuador, Argentina, and Nigeria. In Ecuador, the incumbent’s victory in the presidential elections should strengthen the reform mandate and the country’s policy test score. Argentina just got a new IMF program, which was conditional on a major overhaul of the country’s exchange rate regime with a freer floating currency and no FX intervention within the currency band. This boosted Argentina’s policy test score. We continue to see more green shoots in the Nigerian economy, and 80% of Nigeria’s exports is oil, which is exempt from the tariffs, which strengthens the economic and technical test scores for the country.
  • Finally, we increased our hard currency sovereign exposure in Gabon, Senegal, and Pakistan. In Gabon, we now have more certainty on the policy front after the former transitional president Nguema comfortably won the presidential election, improving the policy test score for the country.

    In Senegal, the IMF signaled that it is ready to move on a new program after the country addressed some data misreporting issues. This should strengthen the policy test score for Senegal. Pakistan’s valuations look better now, and the country’s direct exposure to the U.S. tariffs is limited. The U.S. is expected to keep Pakistan in its orbit for political reasons, and the IMF funding is expected to get unlocked after the board’s approval. In terms of our investment process, this improved the policy and technical test scores for the country.

  • We reduced our local currency exposure in Indonesia, Chile, Mexico, and Turkey. The Indonesian government has a communication problem, especially as regards its fiscal plans against the backdrop of downside growth risks. The central bank’s focus on currency stability may limit room for rate cuts. In terms of our investment process, this weakens the policy test score for the country. The softening growth outlook in Chile’s main trade partners and its potential impact on demand for copper worsen the economic and technical test scores for the country. Mexico’s growth prospects can be also adversely affected by a rising risk of recession in the U.S. Turkey might be well positioned to deal with the trade war challenges, but its domestic political scene remains noisy, worsening the policy test score for the country.
  • We also reduced our hard currency corporate exposure in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. The main reasons are the negative and more direct impact of higher tariffs, and the non-zero risk of the renminbi’s devaluation to regain competitiveness.
  • Finally, we reduced our hard currency sovereign exposure in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Bahamas, the Philippines, Cote d’Ivoire, and Papua New Guinea. The key concern in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Philippines was the impact of the U.S. tariffs on inflation expectations and duration. The tariffs’ negative impact on lower-income fragile economies was the main consideration in Cote d’Ivoire and Papua New Guinea. In terms of our investment process, this has worsened the technical test score for these countries.

DISCLOSURES

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

Duration measures a bond's sensitivity to interest rate changes that reflects the change in a bond's price given a change in yield. This duration measure is appropriate for bonds with embedded options. Carry is the benefit or cost for owning an asset. Yield to worst is a measure of the lowest possible yield that can be received on a bond with an early retirement provision. Averages are market weighted. The yields presented do not represent the performance of the Fund. These statistics do not take into account fees and expenses associated with investments of the Fund.

All indices are unmanaged and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index's performance is not illustrative of the Fund's performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

The Fund's benchmark index (50% GBI-EM/50% EMBI) is a blended index consisting of 50% J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified and 50% J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI). The J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified tracks local currency bonds issued by Emerging Markets governments. The J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified tracks returns for actively traded external debt instruments in emerging markets, and is also J.P. Morgan's most liquid U.S. dollar emerging markets debt benchmark.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index measures the performance of global investment grade fixed income securities.

The FTSE Treasury Benchmark 10 year measures the return of the 10 year U.S. Treasury.

ICE BofA Global Broad Market Index tracks the performance of investment grade debt publicly issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets, including sovereign, quasi-government, corporate, securitized and collateralized securities. ICE BofA Current 10-Year U.S. Treasury Index is comprised of the most recently issued 10-year U.S. Treasury note.

The MSCI ACWI Index is a global equity benchmark that captures large- and mid-cap stocks across 23 developed and 24 emerging markets, representing approximately 85% of the global investable equity universe.

The S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized U.S. equity benchmark that tracks 500 of the largest publicly traded companies, reflecting the performance of the core U.S. stock market.

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The Index is used with permission. The index may not be copied, used or distributed without J.P. Morgan's written approval. Copyright 2025, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

You can lose money by investing in the Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. The Fund is subject to risks which may include, but are not limited to, risks associated with active management, credit, credit-linked notes, currency management strategies, derivatives, emerging market issuers, energy sector, ESG investing strategy, foreign currency, foreign securities, hedging, high portfolio turnover, high yield securities, interest rate, market, non-diversified, operational, restricted securities, investing in other funds, sovereign bond, and special risks considerations of investing in African, Asian and Latin American issuers, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Emerging market issuers and foreign securities may be subject to securities markets, political and economic, investment and repatriation restrictions, different rules and regulations, less publicly available financial information, foreign currency and exchange rates, operational and settlement, and corporate and securities laws risks. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity, interest rate, and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous.

Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.

No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Securities Corporation.

© 2025 Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.

DISCLOSURES

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

Duration measures a bond's sensitivity to interest rate changes that reflects the change in a bond's price given a change in yield. This duration measure is appropriate for bonds with embedded options. Carry is the benefit or cost for owning an asset. Yield to worst is a measure of the lowest possible yield that can be received on a bond with an early retirement provision. Averages are market weighted. The yields presented do not represent the performance of the Fund. These statistics do not take into account fees and expenses associated with investments of the Fund.

All indices are unmanaged and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index's performance is not illustrative of the Fund's performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

The Fund's benchmark index (50% GBI-EM/50% EMBI) is a blended index consisting of 50% J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified and 50% J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI). The J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified tracks local currency bonds issued by Emerging Markets governments. The J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified tracks returns for actively traded external debt instruments in emerging markets, and is also J.P. Morgan's most liquid U.S. dollar emerging markets debt benchmark.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index measures the performance of global investment grade fixed income securities.

The FTSE Treasury Benchmark 10 year measures the return of the 10 year U.S. Treasury.

ICE BofA Global Broad Market Index tracks the performance of investment grade debt publicly issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets, including sovereign, quasi-government, corporate, securitized and collateralized securities. ICE BofA Current 10-Year U.S. Treasury Index is comprised of the most recently issued 10-year U.S. Treasury note.

The MSCI ACWI Index is a global equity benchmark that captures large- and mid-cap stocks across 23 developed and 24 emerging markets, representing approximately 85% of the global investable equity universe.

The S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized U.S. equity benchmark that tracks 500 of the largest publicly traded companies, reflecting the performance of the core U.S. stock market.

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The Index is used with permission. The index may not be copied, used or distributed without J.P. Morgan's written approval. Copyright 2025, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

You can lose money by investing in the Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. The Fund is subject to risks which may include, but are not limited to, risks associated with active management, credit, credit-linked notes, currency management strategies, derivatives, emerging market issuers, energy sector, ESG investing strategy, foreign currency, foreign securities, hedging, high portfolio turnover, high yield securities, interest rate, market, non-diversified, operational, restricted securities, investing in other funds, sovereign bond, and special risks considerations of investing in African, Asian and Latin American issuers, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Emerging market issuers and foreign securities may be subject to securities markets, political and economic, investment and repatriation restrictions, different rules and regulations, less publicly available financial information, foreign currency and exchange rates, operational and settlement, and corporate and securities laws risks. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity, interest rate, and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous.

Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.

No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Securities Corporation.

© 2025 Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.