Gold Price & Investment Outlook: 2025 & Beyond
May 02, 2025
Read Time 8 MIN
Gold is one of the most vital metals in the world and a unique asset, with the ability to enhance portfolio diversification, act as store of value, and hedge against systemic risk. VanEck has long been considered a leader in gold-related investments and has been managing gold funds since 1968, including the nation’s first open-ended gold equity mutual fund.
As we look to the future of gold investment, understanding the evolving dynamics and fundamentals of this precious metal is crucial. This article will provide a recap of the current state of gold investing, some of VanEck’s gold market predictions, and the Firm’s general outlook for the metal in the coming years.
Recent Trends in Gold Investing
In 2024, gold prices soared to record highs. In 2025, gold has continued its strong performance and moved above $3,000. It has been the best-performing major asset over the past year.
This surge has been driven, in part, by robust central bank demand—including from emerging markets such as China, India, and Turkey. Gold prices are significantly influenced by global economic conditions, including inflation rates and geopolitical tensions. More recently, gold has benefited from deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical uncertainty globally and tariff policy volatility, both of which are driving demand for an alternative to the U.S. dollar.
Historically, gold has reacted to various global events such as financial crises and shifts in monetary policy. The current trend mirrors past periods where gold strengthened amid global uncertainties, suggesting a recurring pattern of investor behavior during times of economic stress.
Historical Lookback of Gold Prices
For centuries, gold has served as a form of exchange, a safe haven investment (in times of financial market turmoil) as well as a hedge against severe inflation. As an investment, gold helps enhance portfolio diversification, acts as store of value, and offers a hedge against systemic risk. In addition, gold has outperformed traditional asset classes over the last 20 years.
Gold Outperformance Over 20 Years: 2000 - 2025
Source: FactSet, VanEck. Data as of March 2025. U.S. Stocks represented by S&P® 500 Index; U.S.Bonds represented by Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; Gold ($/oz) represented by LBMA PM Gold Price; U.S. Treasuries represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Index.
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Key Factors Affecting Gold Prices
Understanding the macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technological factors that influence the price of gold is crucial for investors seeking to navigate the complexities of the market. The impact of interest rates and global economic policies collectively shape the investment landscape of gold.
Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Gold Prices
Gold prices are significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates and monetary policy. Typically, when interest rates are low, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold decreases, making gold more attractive to investors. Conversely, higher interest rates can strengthen the dollar and make yield-bearing assets more appealing, often leading to a decline in gold prices. However, current trends deviate from this norm due to sustained inflationary pressures and de-dollarization, which has helped sustain strong investment demand for gold.
Looking forward, continued inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks are likely to further bolster gold's appeal as a hedge against market volatility.
Geopolitical Influences
Historical data shows that gold prices often increase during times of geopolitical unrest or instability, as investors seek stability. This sensitivity to global political dynamics contributes to gold's status as a “safe haven” asset.
In the current market environment, gold and gold stocks should ultimately benefit from the heightened level of risk across the global economy and global financial system. With U.S. exceptionalism increasingly in question, the potential for a weaker dollar should continue to drive de-dollarization, which also benefits gold. In general, the unpredictability of economic policies and heightened market volatility should boost gold's appeal as the preferred safe-haven asset during times of global uncertainty. This should support a shift in investor sentiment towards gold and related equities.
Gold Investing Outlook and Why Gold Could Go Higher in 2025
Here we explore what these developments could mean for gold prices in 2025 and beyond, examining both short-term forecasts and longer-term projections based on current and emerging market influences.
Short-term Forecast: 2025 Gold Predictions
We believe gold has the potential to trade in a higher range in 2025. In recent years, strong rallies, such as the one gold has recently been enjoying, have often been followed by periods of consolidation around an established, higher level, with the metal trading in a sideways pattern until a new catalyst emerges to drive prices even higher. Gold typically outperforms during the second half of the inflation regime as investors seek protection from social, geopolitical and financial instability.
Gold is the Second Half Team
Source: Bloomberg, VanEck. “Commodities” represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements are not indicative of actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice.
Looking forward, gold is well positioned to continue its rally, especially as more Western investors continue their return to the market. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs, along with continued inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks, are likely to further bolster gold's appeal as a hedge against market volatility. With this backdrop, we believe that gold prices could break through their inflation-adjusted highs and breach $4,000 per ounce in the near term.
However, as our CEO recently noted, investors should hold gold for the long term but be prepared for a slight pullback in the near term given its significantly strong run recently.
Side Note: For Miners, It’s About More Than Just the Gold Price
A rising gold price environment has historically been accompanied by strong performance by gold equities. The sector outperformers must also demonstrate that they are fundamentally positioned and have a sound strategy that will translate higher gold prices into improved cash flow and higher returns, which will deliver growth. Organic growth does not come easy in the gold sector. Finding new gold deposits, or defining/expanding existing ones, is a difficult, lengthy, and capital-intensive process. Most senior and mid-tier companies struggle to simply replace their annual production. To significantly expand their depleting reserve and resource base, companies generally must acquire other companies or assets. All things equal, the more advanced a project is, the higher its valuation and the faster the company can deliver growth.
Gold stocks’ leverage to the gold price, combined with their attractive valuations relative to the broader equity markets, and their low correlation with most other asset classes, should lead to a re-rating of the sector as investors look for a safer place to rotate capital to and as they look to diversify their portfolios.
5 Year Forecast: Gold Price Forecast for 2026-2030
Gold was built for the shifting trends currently unfolding in the global economy: inflation, war, uncertainty and growing financial instability. Looking at its performance through January 31, 2025, gold is outperforming the S&P 500 over the past 1, 2, and 3 years. In the past 12 months alone, gold has nearly doubled the returns of the S&P 500 Index.
As these trends continue to play out and reshape the global economic order in the coming years, we believe gold has the potential to ascend toward $5,000 per ounce.
Long-term Gold Forecast: 2030 & Beyond
Longer term, investors should expect gold to continue to act as a hedge against broader market volatility and uncertainty. Since 2008, gold has outperformed U.S. stocks and Treasuries during the most notable of market crises. This reflects gold’s role as a hedge against financial risks and safe haven amid uncertainty. Some of VanEck’s own experts suggest that the case for gold may grow stronger due to the U.S. dollar’s reserve status potential decline, and emerging market central bank’s gold holdings continue to rise.
Conclusion: Investing in Gold a Cornerstone of a Diversified Portfolio
Gold continues to be an indispensable asset in the global financial landscape, demonstrating remarkable resilience and adaptability amidst fluctuating macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical tensions. Throughout 2024 and 2025, gold prices have reached new highs, driven by a mix of geopolitical uncertainty and substantial buying from emerging market central banks. This trend underscores gold's enduring role as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty and its appeal as a hedge against systemic risks and inflation.
Looking ahead, the investment outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of continued strength in the market. Factors such as ongoing geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainty and sustained inflationary pressures are likely to further enhance gold's attractiveness. Additionally, technological advancements in mining and shifts in consumer demand in industries like electronics and jewelry will continue to influence gold production and prices.
For investors, the strategic implications are clear: gold should be considered a vital component of a diversified investment portfolio, not only for its traditional benefits but also for its potential to deliver significant returns in a complex global economic environment. The insights provided here aim to equip investors with the knowledge to navigate the evolving gold market, ensuring informed decision-making for both short-term opportunities and long-term investment strategies.
VanEck has provided investors access to gold, one of the most vital metals in the world, for over 50 years with both actively and passively managed solutions.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third-party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. © Van Eck Associates Corporation.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third-party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. © Van Eck Associates Corporation.