us en false false Default
Skip directly to Accessibility Notice

Q4 2025 Outlook: Escaping the Reckoning?

October 21, 2025

Read Time 1 MIN

In Jan’s latest investment outlook, he explains his cautious optimism heading into year-end, amid AI’s expanding footprint, fiscal progress and tightening credit conditions.

When CEO Jan van Eck joined Adam Taggart on the Thoughtful Money podcast to share his latest quarterly outlook, he said that he is “happy with eyes wide open”. Fiscal progress is real and markets are finding balance, but selectivity still matters as AI evolves, credit tightens and policy shifts continue. In this wide-ranging discussion, Jan outlines where he sees resilience and risk as we approach 2026.

Here are key moments from the conversation:

  • [7:09] Understand the AI compute shortage: Token demand is up 38x, but chip and model efficiency help balance supply. 
  • [17:13] Nvidia may not be overpriced: Growth rate and visible demand through 2027 suggest valuations are justified.  
  • [23:27] Watch nuclear valuations: After exceptional returns, this theme now trades at nosebleed levels
  • [39:10] Open AI’s weak link: Now part of the new “Mag 8”, its financing remains a vulnerability.
  • [41:42] Gaming emerges as AI surprise: Faster development and improved video quality may make gaming the next major AI beneficiary.
  • [46:17] Gold’s long-term case stays strong: Central bank demand, fiscal strain, and inflation risk continue to support the metal.
  • [56:37] Private credit faces quality test: Recent bankruptcies emphasize need for liquidity and underwriting strength.
  • [1:02:53] Not all BDCs are created equal: Investors should watch premium and discounts as "escape valve" for private credit  
  • [1:11:54] Fiscal progress takes shape: U.S. deficit has narrowed to roughly 5.9% of GDP, a modest but meaningful improvement.

Important Disclosure

Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included herein.

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned is unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third-party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

For other important disclosures please read more.

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

© Van Eck Associates Corporation.

Important Disclosure

Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included herein.

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned is unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third-party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

For other important disclosures please read more.

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

© Van Eck Associates Corporation.