AI Boom Revives Dotcom Lessons on Wide Moat Focus
September 29, 2026
Read Time 2 min
Key Takeaways
- Strong underlying demand and corporate cash flow support continued AI investment, even as the technology-led rally matures.
- With the S&P 500's top 10 holdings at 38.7% of the index, the Dotcom era offers important lessons on concentration and diversification.
- The Moat Index combines quality, attractive valuations and equal weighting to offer differentiated exposure beyond mega-cap leaders.
- The Moat Index outperformed its benchmark by 1,180 basis points from mid-May through August as the AI trade slowed.
Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The AI boom has driven significant gains in U.S. equities, but it has also contributed to historically high market concentration. Morningstar's new index research examines whether today’s AI-driven market could follow a similar path as the Dotcom era and what investors can learn from history.
The parallels are real: a transformative technology, technology sector leadership, extreme concentration, and a market cap-weighted S&P 500 outrunning its equal-weighted counterpart. Even so, Morningstar does not see an AI bust as imminent, pointing to a buildout funded largely by mega-cap free cash flow rather than leverage, accelerating cloud revenue, and token volumes up roughly 2,400% since June 2025.
The bigger message for investors is to prepare for an eventual plateau, even as AI momentum persists. The top 10 S&P 500 names now account for 38.7% of the index, compared to 26.6% at the Dotcom peak. This raises questions about the diversification provided by traditional broad benchmarks. Following the Dotcom peak, the unwinding favored equal weighting, wider market breadth, and overlooked sectors.
The Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index (the “Moat Index”) offers a differentiated approach through its focus on high-quality companies trading at attractive valuations and its equal-weighted methodology. This combination can provide diversification away from mega-cap concentration while maintaining exposure to companies with durable competitive advantages. The benefits were evident from mid-May through August 2026, when the Moat Index outperformed its benchmark by 1,180 basis points as the AI trade slowed and market participation broadened.
Learnings from the Dotcom Era Amid AI Market Dominance
Access this strategy with the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) and VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund, which seek to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index.
Explore Investment Ideas
To receive more Moat Investing insights, sign up in our subscription center.
Important Disclosures
Source for all data unless otherwise noted: Morningstar.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets mentioned is unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Effective June 20, 2016, Morningstar implemented several changes to the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index construction rules. Among other changes, the index increased its constituent count from 20 stocks to at least 40 stocks and modified its rebalance and reconstitution methodology. These changes may result in more diversified exposure, lower turnover, and longer holding periods for index constituents than under the rules in effect prior to this date. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Returns reflect past performance and do not guarantee future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, if any. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. Index returns do not represent Fund returns. The Index does not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, nor does the Index lend securities, and no revenues from securities lending were added to the performance shown.
The S&P 500® Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering the leading industries of the U.S. economy.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM was created and is maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell, or promote the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF or VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund and bears no liability with respect to the funds or any security. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM is a service mark of Morningstar, Inc.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM Intended to track the overall performance of attractively priced companies with sustainable competitive advantages according to Morningstar's equity research team.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT®) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, health care sector, consumer staples sector, industrials sector, information technology sector, financials sector, medium-capitalization companies, market, operational, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversification, index-related concentration and competitive advantage assessment risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
You can lose money by investing in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program rather than a complete program. The Fund is subject to risks which may include, but are not limited to, risks related to competitive advantage assessment, equity securities, financials sector, health care sector, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, industrials sector, industry concentration, information technology sector, market, medium-capitalization companies, non-diversification, operational, passive management, and underlying fund investments risk, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund's assets may be concentrated in a particular sector and may be subject to more risk than investments in a diverse group of sectors.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
©️ Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Related Funds
Important Disclosures
Source for all data unless otherwise noted: Morningstar.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets mentioned is unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Effective June 20, 2016, Morningstar implemented several changes to the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index construction rules. Among other changes, the index increased its constituent count from 20 stocks to at least 40 stocks and modified its rebalance and reconstitution methodology. These changes may result in more diversified exposure, lower turnover, and longer holding periods for index constituents than under the rules in effect prior to this date. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Returns reflect past performance and do not guarantee future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, if any. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. Index returns do not represent Fund returns. The Index does not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, nor does the Index lend securities, and no revenues from securities lending were added to the performance shown.
The S&P 500® Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering the leading industries of the U.S. economy.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM was created and is maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell, or promote the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF or VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund and bears no liability with respect to the funds or any security. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM is a service mark of Morningstar, Inc.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM Intended to track the overall performance of attractively priced companies with sustainable competitive advantages according to Morningstar's equity research team.
An investment in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT®) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in equity securities, health care sector, consumer staples sector, industrials sector, information technology sector, financials sector, medium-capitalization companies, market, operational, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversification, index-related concentration and competitive advantage assessment risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
You can lose money by investing in the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program rather than a complete program. The Fund is subject to risks which may include, but are not limited to, risks related to competitive advantage assessment, equity securities, financials sector, health care sector, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, industrials sector, industry concentration, information technology sector, market, medium-capitalization companies, non-diversification, operational, passive management, and underlying fund investments risk, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund's assets may be concentrated in a particular sector and may be subject to more risk than investments in a diverse group of sectors.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
©️ Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.