April Market Recap: A New World Order—Built on Tariffs, Trust Issues, and Gold
May 14, 2025
Read Time 4 MIN
Trump isn’t bluffing. He’s rewriting the rules of global engagement—putting America first, demanding fair trade, and prioritizing national strength over global cooperation for its own sake.
- Tariffs are tools—not threats. Imports from China and others face heavy costs unless they play fair. The goal? Level the playing field.
- Globalization isn’t dead—but it’s conditional. Trump wants trade. But not at any cost. It must be balanced, reciprocal, and in America’s interest.
- Even allies face pressure. Long-standing partners are being pushed to deliver better terms—not out of hostility, but fairness.
- Strategic industries are the new front lines. Tech, energy, semiconductors—these aren’t just markets anymore. They’re national assets.
For decades, the world earned dollars through trade and recycled them into U.S. Treasuries. That system is breaking. Countries are now diversifying reserves, buying gold, and acquiring real assets instead of lending to governments they no longer fully trust.
The shift is real and accelerating:
- Falling demand for U.S. debt
- A weaker U.S. dollar
- Soaring interest in hard assets
Nations are reducing their reliance on the U.S.—its economy, its institutions, and its currency.
Models Favor Gold, India and Bitcoin
A New World Order: Built on Tariffs, Trust Issues, and Gold
Markets Are Rallying. That Doesn’t Mean It’s Safe.
Yes, the S&P 500 is once again trading near all-time highs. Yes, gold cooled slightly after topping $3,400. But don’t confuse a bounce with a bottom.
If your portfolio struggled in the last drop, the market just gave you a gift: a second chance to diversify.
Gold Isn’t a Trade. It’s a Trend.
Forget the “Did I miss it?” narrative. Here’s what matters:
- Gold hit an all-time high of $3,400 in early May.
- It’s up nearly 30% this year and 45% over the past 12 months.
- Supply is stable. Demand is rising.
- Global de-dollarization is accelerating.
Gold is a core asset in a world questioning the value of fiat.
Oil Sold Off. We Bought.
Oil prices plunged—WTI hit $57 on May 5—as markets priced in recession fears and OPEC+ began easing production cuts.
Saudi Arabia is playing a strategic game: enforce discipline inside OPEC, slow U.S. production gains, and maintain influence.
We used the sell-off to increase oil exposure—positioning for upside as supply-demand dynamics reset.
The U.S. is Pricey. The Opportunity is Abroad.
U.S. equities have bounced, and valuations are stretched—especially in a world flirting with recession.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is catching a bid:
- Developed international stocks: +15% YTD
- Emerging markets: +7% YTD
- U.S. equities: flat to slightly down
Why?
- Cheaper valuations
- Rising fiscal stimulus
- Weaker dollar tailwinds
- More independent growth stories
We're entering a multi-polar economy. Global growth is no longer just about what happens in Washington or at the Fed. Investors need to look beyond U.S. borders.
We’ve been steadily increasing our allocation to international equities all year—and we plan to continue. The setup is strong, the valuations are attractive, and the diversification benefits are real.
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Bitcoin Pulled Back. Here’s Why.
Bitcoin fell from a high of $107,000 to a low of $77,000 in just a few weeks.
- Dormant wallets sold into strength
- Institutions rotated out amid macro uncertainty
- The Bybit hack ($1.5B) spooked sentiment
- Broader risk-off environment weighed on crypto
But let’s be clear: this is a pullback, not a breakdown. Bitcoin’s long-term thesis remains intact—this kind of volatility is a feature, not a flaw.
Fixed Income: Signals Worth Watching
The bond market is sending quiet but important signals.
- Between December and February, foreign central banks sold $86 billion of U.S. bonds
- During April’s equity correction, Treasuries sold off too—a sign that traditional safe havens aren’t acting like they used to
The risk now isn’t just about credit—it’s about duration. If the yield curve continues to steepen, long-duration bonds could face renewed pressure. Rising term premiums and global sellers add fuel to that risk.
In this environment, fixed income strategy must shift:
- Favor quality over yield
- Be cautious of long-duration exposure
- Avoid complacency—rate volatility is back
What Worked Won’t Work Forever
This market rally feels good—but it could be setting a trap.
- The dollar is weakening
- Gold is outperforming
- Credit markets are flashing stress
- Global leadership is decentralizing
We’re in a transition from monetary dominance to fiscal muscle, from globalization to regional blocs, from U.S. hegemony to economic self-determination.
Our View
- Gold deserves a seat at the table—5% or more
- International equities are undervalued and under-owned
- In fixed income, stay conservative—favor capital preservation over reach
The old system isn’t just evolving—it’s unraveling. A new one is taking shape. Now is the time to manage risk and diversify with intent.
A New World Order: Built on Tariffs, Trust Issues, and Gold
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Important Disclosures
Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this blog.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
The models are not mutual funds or other types of securities and will not be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and no units or shares of the models will be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor will they be registered with any state securities regulator. Accordingly, the models are not subject to compliance with the requirements of such acts.
S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.
There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junk bond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. This risk is heightened with investments in longer duration fixed-income securities and during periods when prevailing interest rates are low or negative.
Emerging Market securities are subject to greater risks than U.S. domestic investments. These additional risks may include exchange rate fluctuations and exchange controls; less publicly available information; more volatile or less liquid securities markets; and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Intelligently-designed exposure across asset classes for diversified portfolios
Important Disclosures
Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this blog.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
The models are not mutual funds or other types of securities and will not be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and no units or shares of the models will be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor will they be registered with any state securities regulator. Accordingly, the models are not subject to compliance with the requirements of such acts.
S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.
There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junk bond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. This risk is heightened with investments in longer duration fixed-income securities and during periods when prevailing interest rates are low or negative.
Emerging Market securities are subject to greater risks than U.S. domestic investments. These additional risks may include exchange rate fluctuations and exchange controls; less publicly available information; more volatile or less liquid securities markets; and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.