Key Takeaways

• Oilfield services and refiners face short-term volatility, but structural demand supports a cautiously constructive outlook for 2026.
• Large, technology-driven oilfield services companies and sophisticated refiners are best positioned to benefit from complex global oil systems and constrained capacity.
• Targeted oil exposure across services and refining may add diversification and inflation sensitivity when used as a modest allocation within a broader portfolio.

2026 Outlook for Oil Stocks

Energy markets enter 2026 with a mix of near-term uncertainty and longer-term structural opportunity across multiple segments of the oil value chain. While global crude markets remain well supplied, keeping pressure on prices and reinforcing capital discipline among producers, both oilfield services companies and refiners stand to benefit from distinct, and in some cases complementary, dynamics.

For oilfield services providers, the opportunity is tied to the need for maintenance, rehabilitation, and technical reinvestment in aging and underdeveloped oil systems globally. For refiners, particularly in the U.S., value is driven by crude quality mismatches, constrained refining capacity, and the ability to process heavier and more complex barrels.

Recent geopolitical developments in Venezuela have brought these dynamics into sharper focus. Political changes and increased U.S. engagement with the country’s energy sector have renewed investor attention not because of immediate production gains, but because of the potential for gradual reinvestment and improved heavy-crude availability.

This shift has supported market interest in large oilfield services companies, such as Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), and Baker Hughes (BKR), on the view that any recovery would be services-led. At the same time, it has reinforced the strategic position of sophisticated refiners that benefit from access to heavy crude and tight refining capacity.

Top Oil Companies to Watch

As global energy demand remains resilient, investment is increasingly focused on maintaining and optimizing existing production and infrastructure. Oilfield services companies and refiners are positioned to benefit from long-term spending needs and the growing complexity of global energy systems.

1. Schlumberger (SLB)

Schlumberger is the biggest oilfield services company in the world. It works heavily on international and offshore projects. Its strength comes from advanced technology, digital services, and reservoir knowledge.

Energy producers depend on these to get the most from existing fields. Global production is shifting to more complex reservoirs. Schlumberger will benefit from the demand for valuable, technology-driven services.

2. Halliburton (HAL)

Halliburton is a leading provider of drilling and completion services, with particular strength in North American shale. The company tends to benefit early in upcycles as producers increase activity and service intensity. Halliburton focuses on efficiency and execution. This supports profit margins, even with more careful growth in the industry.

3. Baker Hughes (BKR)

Baker Hughes operates at the intersection of traditional oil services and energy technology. The company is well-known for its work in liquefied natural gas infrastructure, turbines, and industrial energy equipment along with its main oilfield services business.

This diversified exposure allows Baker Hughes to invest in oil and gas now, while also positioning for longer-term changes in the global energy system.

4. Phillips 66 (PSX)

Phillips 66 is a leading downstream energy company with a strong focus on refining, midstream, and chemicals. The company benefits from U.S. refining capacity constraints and strong product demand, particularly for transportation fuels. Its diversified income and careful spending have made it a steady producer of cash flow, even with changing oil prices.

5. Valero (VLO)

Valero is one of the largest independent refiners in the world, with a strong focus in the U.S. Gulf Coast. The company gains from advanced refineries that can process cheaper heavy and sour crude. This helps maintain strong profits when feedstock prices vary. This puts Valero in a good position, especially in a time of limited refining capacity.

What 3 Things to Consider When Investing in Oil

1. Inflation Protection and Global Demand

Oil services companies have historically performed well during inflationary periods when higher energy prices translate into increased activity and earnings.. These companies may also benefit from global energy demand in the long run. Emerging economies continue to grow and need reliable power sources.

2. Volatility and Structural Risks

Oil is a cyclical industry and price swings can be significant. Periods of oversupply, economic slowdowns, or sharp corrections in oil prices can weigh heavily on returns. Longer term, the global shift toward sustainable energy introduces uncertainty, even as many traditional energy companies adapt their business models.

3. Portfolio Role and Implementation

Exposure to oilfield services and refiners is often best used as a modest allocation within a diversified portfolio. It can complement core holdings by adding diversification and inflation sensitivity. Investors can also use strategies like the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) to express shorter-term views, benefiting from liquidity, low costs, and straightforward tax treatment without K-1 forms.

How to Invest in Oil

For investors looking for targeted exposure to oilfield services, one approach is through a diversified ETF rather than individual stocks. The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is designed to track the performance of U.S.-listed oil services companies that support upstream oil and gas production, including drilling, equipment, and related services.

OIH focuses on highly liquid, industry-leading companies, with an index methodology that emphasizes market capitalization and trading volume. This results in exposure to the largest and most established players in the oil services space. The fund may also include U.S.-listed foreign companies, providing broader industry representation while maintaining liquidity and transparency.

As a result, OIH can be a main choice for investors wanting longer-term exposure to oilfield services or as a tactical tool to express a view on rising global energy investment, without the complexity of owning individual stocks or commodity-linked structures.

Investors seeking refining exposure may also consider ETFs focused on downstream companies, such as the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), which targets firms benefiting from refining margins, capacity constraints, and crude quality dynamics.

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