Miners Find Their Mojo as Gold Consolidates
September 10, 2025
Read Time 5 MIN
Monthly gold market and economic insights from Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, featuring her unique views on mining and gold’s portfolio benefits.
Key Takeaways:
- Gold range-bound near $3,300/oz, with catalysts like Fed turmoil and global risks boosting safe-haven demand
- Gold miners surged in August on strong earnings and capital discipline
- Signs of a sector re-rating suggest gold equities may be entering a new bull cycle
Miners Find Their Mojo as Gold Consolidates
Policy Whiplash, Golden Calm
Gold continues to be supported by heightened uncertainty and volatility stemming from persistent global geopolitical and trade tensions and mixed economic signals. In August, gold itself became entangled in the trade-tariff chaos when news reports suggested that the U.S. had imposed tariffs on 1-kilogram and 100-ounce bars of gold. The White House and President Trump later reassured markets that gold will not be subject to tariffs. TACO, indeed! The gold tariff fiasco exemplifies the confusing policy environment in the U.S., with markets trying to re-interpret and price in rapidly changing (and conflicting) information daily.
Gold Holds the Line
The gold price has been range-bound around the $3,300 per ounce level following its strong rally post “liberation” day in April. This sideways action does not surprise us. In recent years, after significant moves to new highs, the gold price tends to consolidate around a new, higher base before the next catalyst emerges that drives it to the next level. While there are plenty of potential catalysts at present, the timing is impossible to predict, but anything that threatens the stability of the global financial system would likely lead to a surge in safe-haven demand for gold.
From Tariff Talk to Rally Walk
We had a taste of what some of those catalysts may look like on August 20, when President Trump called for the resignation of – and days later announced he had fired – U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) Governor Lisa Cook. This escalation in assaults on the Fed by the current administration raised fears that the Fed could lose its independence, threatening the stability and credibility of the world’s most important central bank. Gold rallied in response, also supported by increased probabilities of a Fed cut in September and a weaker dollar, closing at $3,447.95 per ounce on August 29, a $158.02 (4.80%) gain for the month.
Calm Metal, Hot Miners
The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)1 (“GDM”) was up a whopping 21.73% during the month, while the mid-tier and small cap index, MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners (MVGDXJTR),2 was up 23.35%. The gold price increase led to an amplified gain for the gold equities, as expected, reflecting their leverage to the metal price. However, the substantial outperformance suggests other factors, beyond the gold price, supported gold mining shares in August. We believe a key driver was a very strong Q2 2025 earnings season: companies generally reported financial and operating results that met or exceeded expectations, with many companies reporting record revenues and free cash flow. Most companies in our universe maintained their yearly guidance, and many larger players reiterated their commitment to higher shareholder returns via dividend payments and share buybacks. Investors were reassured that higher gold prices are indeed translating into higher margins, higher profitability, lower debt and enhanced growth prospects for the industry. And while August was not a bad month for broader equities, helped by mega-cap tech dominance and optimistic rate-cut speculation, monthly gains of approximately 2% for the S&P 500® Index3 and the NASDAQ Composite4 paled in comparison to the gold miners’ advance. Richly valued U.S. equities, concerns that growth of mega-cap stocks may be fading and high concentration in AI/tech stocks may also be driving portfolio diversification and rotation of capital that is benefiting gold stocks.
Miners Find Their Mojo
After almost two decades of persistent de-rating, could gold equities finally be getting their mojo back? Our data seems to suggest so. We have been tracking the relationship between gold bullion and gold equities (GDM) since 2001 (see chart below) and have identified six clear (strong) trends, indicating a significant and prolonged de-rating of the gold mining sector since 2007. A de-rating occurs when a trendline shifts to the right and/or downward. De-ratings in the past were the result of companies consistently disappointing investors. Examples include massively out-of-the- money hedge books in the 2000’s; over indebtedness and low returns on capital in the 2010’s; and missing production and cost targets in the early 2020’s. Now investors are seeing expanding margins, low debt, capital-allocation discipline, and companies doing what they said they would do this year. While it is too early to tell if a new valuation trend is forming, August data is encouraging and may signal the beginning of a new bull cycle for gold mining stocks. For reference, the bull-market trend of 2001-2007 would imply a GDM value of approximately 6,000 at today’s spot gold price, compared to its present value of around 1,800. A return of those historical sector multiples may seem unrealistic and it’s not part of our outlook, but a significant re-rating of the sector is in the cards, in our view.
As mentioned above, the chart below maps gold prices against the GDM since 2001, highlighting the six trends—and a potential re-rating with a steeper “new trend” emerging since mid-August 2025.
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Gold vs NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index
2001 - 2025 Weekly Close
Data as of September 4, 2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Important Disclosures
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of August 31, 2025, unless otherwise noted.
Please note that VanEck may offer investment products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this communication.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 2MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) tracks the performance of global gold and silver mining companies that generally comprise the bottom 40% of the total market cap of the industry. 3S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. The index is a float-adjusted, market-cap-weighted index of 500 leading U.S. companies from across all market sectors including information technology, telecommunications services, utilities, energy, materials, industrials, real estate, financials, health care, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples. 4NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based market index that includes more than 3700 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”). VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding VanEck products or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of the Adviser), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties.
The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2025 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.
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Important Disclosures
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of August 31, 2025, unless otherwise noted.
Please note that VanEck may offer investment products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this communication.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 2MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) tracks the performance of global gold and silver mining companies that generally comprise the bottom 40% of the total market cap of the industry. 3S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. The index is a float-adjusted, market-cap-weighted index of 500 leading U.S. companies from across all market sectors including information technology, telecommunications services, utilities, energy, materials, industrials, real estate, financials, health care, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples. 4NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based market index that includes more than 3700 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”). VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding VanEck products or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of the Adviser), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties.
The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2025 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.