June Market Recap: Policy Shifts. Themes Endure.
July 14, 2025
Read Time 4 MIN
Trump Drives Headlines and Volatility
Donald Trump is once again dominating market headlines. This week alone, headlines included Bloomberg’s Trump’s 50% Levy on Brazil Shows World Nothing Is Off Limits and WSJ’s Dow Futures Slip After Trump Unveils 50% Brazil Tariff.
The message is clear: we’re in a period defined by aggressive policy moves and elevated volatility. The market has rallied more than 25% off the lows sparked by “Liberation Day.” Stocks are now at all-time highs, but also increasingly vulnerable. The next market catalyst may not come from earnings or inflation - it may come from a microphone in Washington.
Policy Shifts. Themes Endure.
Our Approach: Focused Themes, Real Diversification
We allocate risk through a clear framework: stay prepared for the unknown through diversification, and lean into long-term themes we believe will drive returns.
And let’s be clear - unlike beauty, diversification is not in the eye of the beholder. When we use the term, we mean holding fundamentally differentiated asset classes - stocks, bonds, real assets, and digital assets - in allocations large enough to matter.
Three Core Investment Themes
Our portfolio remains anchored around three structural themes.
First, de-dollarization. Ongoing fiscal excess and rising debt levels are fueling demand for decentralized store-of-value assets like gold and bitcoin.
Second, artificial intelligence. AI is not a sector - it’s an infrastructure shift. It’s reshaping productivity, industries, and global competition.
Third, energy security. Reliable, scalable energy is back in focus. That includes fossil fuels, nuclear, and infrastructure modernization.
Policy Tailwinds: The “Big Beautiful Bill”
Trump’s recently passed “Big Beautiful Bill” accelerates all three of our core themes. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. It directs capital toward domestic chip production, military AI systems, and energy-related AI research. And on energy, the bill prioritizes proven sources - specifically fossil fuels and nuclear - over intermittent alternatives.
Portfolio Activity: Recent Moves
We’ve been active in managing risk and taking advantage of market moves. Recent positioning updates include:
- On June 3, we repositioned along the U.S. Treasury curve to increase our exposure to a steepening yield curve. (Wealth Builder)
- On June 13, we sold oil at $73 after buying in May at $57. A straightforward profit-taking trade. (Traded within a key holding in the VanEck Real Assets ETF which is managed by the MAS team and held in Select Opportunities, Wealth Builder and Real Assets)
- On June 17, we trimmed our nuclear energy exposure after a 30% YTD gain. We remain bullish on the long-term theme but saw an opportunity to lock in gains. (Custom Select Opportunities Models)
- On July 8 and 10, we reduced copper holdings after Trump’s 50% copper tariff sent prices to all-time highs. A price spike of this magnitude, driven by policy, created an attractive exit point. (Traded within a key holding in the VanEck Real Assets ETF which is managed by the MAS team and held in Select Opportunities, Wealth Builder and Real Assets)
- On July 9, we increased our AI exposure through targeted allocations to eSports, video gaming, and broader tech, funded by reductions in value and broad-based equity. (Wealth Builder)
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Market Review
Equities:
U.S. stocks are up more than 25% from April lows and at record highs. That said, they lag international peers YTD: the S&P 500 is up 7%, MSCI EAFE up 21%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up 17%. The primary driver of this divergence is currency - the U.S. dollar has fallen nearly 10% versus a basket of developed market currencies.
Fixed Income:
In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.35%. Investor appetite for long-dated Treasuries has become a hot topic as the financial outlook for the U.S. continues to decline. Markets are pricing in 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Credit spreads remain tight, reflecting a broadly stable credit environment.
Real Assets:
In real assets, oil fell to $57 in May and rebounded to $75 in June, driven by geopolitical risk, particularly threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Copper surged to record levels after Trump’s tariff announcement. Gold remains steady between $3,200 and $3,400 after a strong rally from $2,600 earlier this year. Silver and platinum have followed suit. Nuclear stocks, up 30% YTD, continue to benefit from policy momentum and investor flows.
Digital Assets:
Bitcoin has broken out to new all-time highs above $118,000. It continues to benefit from risk-on sentiment, institutional adoption, and rising concern about fiscal sustainability.
Final Thoughts
We are in a new investment regime. Policy swings are large, volatility is elevated, and long-term themes are gaining strength.
We are long innovation through U.S. technology and AI. We are hedging fiat debasement and a declining U.S. dollar through gold and bitcoin. We are diversified across asset classes to stay flexible in the face of uncertainty. And we look to take advantage of volatility at extremes - using dislocations as opportunities to buy and sell with discipline.
We don’t react to headlines - we position around fundamentals, themes, and price.
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Important Disclosures
Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
ETF Model Portfolios Disclosures
The models are not mutual funds or other types of securities and will not be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and no units or shares of the models will be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor will they be registered with any state securities regulator. Accordingly, the models are not subject to compliance with the requirements of such acts.
S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
An investment in the VanEck Real Assets ETF (RAAX) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in real assets ETPs, which may subject the Fund to commodities, gold, natural resources companies, MLPs, real estate sector, infrastructure, ETP-related equity securities, small- and medium-capitalization companies, foreign securities, emerging market issuers, ETP-related foreign currency, credit, interest rate, call, concentration and derivative risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. The Fund may also be subject to fund of funds, affiliated fund, U.S. Treasury securities, subsidiary investment, commodity regulatory, subsidiary tax, liquidity, gap, cash transactions, high portfolio turnover, data, active management, operational, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, market, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares risks. Foreign investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, and changes in currency exchange rates which may negatively impact the Fund's returns. Small- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.
There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junk bond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. This risk is heightened with investments in longer duration fixed-income securities and during periods when prevailing interest rates are low or negative.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com/etfs. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
© Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Intelligently-designed exposure across asset classes for diversified portfolios
Important Disclosures
Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
ETF Model Portfolios Disclosures
The models are not mutual funds or other types of securities and will not be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and no units or shares of the models will be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor will they be registered with any state securities regulator. Accordingly, the models are not subject to compliance with the requirements of such acts.
S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
An investment in the VanEck Real Assets ETF (RAAX) may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to investing in real assets ETPs, which may subject the Fund to commodities, gold, natural resources companies, MLPs, real estate sector, infrastructure, ETP-related equity securities, small- and medium-capitalization companies, foreign securities, emerging market issuers, ETP-related foreign currency, credit, interest rate, call, concentration and derivative risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. The Fund may also be subject to fund of funds, affiliated fund, U.S. Treasury securities, subsidiary investment, commodity regulatory, subsidiary tax, liquidity, gap, cash transactions, high portfolio turnover, data, active management, operational, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, market, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares risks. Foreign investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, and changes in currency exchange rates which may negatively impact the Fund's returns. Small- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.
There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junk bond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. This risk is heightened with investments in longer duration fixed-income securities and during periods when prevailing interest rates are low or negative.
Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com/etfs. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
© Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.