Why Investor Sentiment Is a Leading Signal, Not a Lagging One
July 16, 2026
Read Time 5 MIN
Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance.
Key Takeaways
- Sentiment is a leading signal, not a lagging one: it captures investor conviction as it forms, while price momentum only shows what has already happened.
- Social data now makes sentiment measurable at scale: NLP and AI convert millions of real-time investment posts into a structured signal, as with the BUZZ NextGen AI US Sentiment Leaders Index.
- The exposure reflects a structural feature that traditional factors don't fully capture: sentiment-based selection follows conviction rather than fixed sector buckets, flagging stocks before they show up in price momentum rankings.
When most investors think about factor investing, they think about the classics: value, momentum, quality, and size. These factors have decades of academic backing and are embedded in countless portfolios. But one factor has been building its own case: investor sentiment, and it operates on fundamentally different logic than anything derived from price.
Sentiment Has Always Moved Markets, from the Tontine Coffee House in the 1790s to Today
The idea that sentiment drives prices is not new. Long before the internet, the hopes and fears of the crowd have shaped markets. When brokers first gathered at the Tontine Coffee House on Wall Street in the 1790s, and later the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, prices moved as optimism and anxiety swept through the trading pits. Sentiment has long been cited as a driver behind some of history's most notable market episodes, from speculative bubbles to sharp recoveries. Market participants have always understood that what investors collectively believe plays a meaningful role in the price discovery process.
What has changed is the ability to measure it. For most of market history, sentiment could only be inferred through intuition. The rise of the internet and investment-specific social platforms in particular has transformed that picture. Millions of investors now voluntarily share their views on individual stocks in real time, creating a rich and diverse record of collective conviction. For the first time, that sentiment can be systematically aggregated, structured, and analyzed at scale, turning what was once a vague market mood into a measurable signal.
The Problem with Price-Based Momentum
Price momentum is intuitive: stocks that have been going up tend to keep going up, at least in the short run. It's a well-documented phenomenon, and momentum strategies have historically performed well over long periods. But the price tells you what has already happened. It is, by definition, a lagging signal: the market has already moved, and you're reading the footprints.
This creates a structural blind spot. Price-based factors can only capture conviction after it has been expressed through buying and selling. They miss the buildup, the period when investors are forming views, discussing ideas, and building the conviction that eventually moves markets.
That's precisely where investor sentiment lives.
What Sentiment Actually Measures
Investor sentiment, at least as operationalized through approaches like the BUZZ NextGen AI US Sentiment Leaders Index, is not a measure of noise or retail chatter. It is a structured signal derived from millions of investment-relevant posts across social media, news, and online platforms, processed through Natural Language Processing and AI to isolate positive investor conviction around specific stocks.
Crucially, the signal is forward-looking by construction. It captures what investors are saying and feeling before that conviction fully flows into price. Academic research has supported this: studies including Liew and Budavari's work on tweet-derived equity factors found meaningful predictive power in social signals for explaining daily returns. Houlihan and Creamer similarly showed that message volume and sentiment from StockTwits contained information about future price changes.
In other words, sentiment is capturing something price has not yet been priced in.
A Different Kind of Momentum
It helps to think of sentiment momentum and price momentum as measuring two different phases of the same process. Price momentum is a trailing signal; it confirms that conviction has already moved markets. Sentiment momentum is a leading signal; it identifies where conviction is forming.
This distinction matters for portfolio construction. A stock can have high positive sentiment and still be early in its price move. It can also have weak or declining sentiment while its price momentum remains elevated, a potential warning sign that price has run ahead of conviction. These two signals can diverge, and when they do, the divergence itself is informative.
Because sentiment-based selection can identify stocks before their conviction shows up in price momentum rankings, it offers exposure that traditional price-based factors don't fully capture, a structural feature of how the signal is constructed, rather than a repackaging of existing factor tilts.
One more thing: sentiment-based investing doesn't rely on predefined sector buckets or static screens. Stock selection follows collective conviction, so the portfolio naturally rotates toward wherever investors' attention and enthusiasm are building. During 2020, for example, this approach quickly identified emerging winners as narratives around electric vehicles, cloud computing, and biotech captured the market's attention in real time.
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The Bottom Line
Investor sentiment isn't a replacement for traditional factors. It occupies a different point in the information timeline between when conviction forms and when price fully reflects it. For investors already holding broad market or factor-based exposure, that gap is exactly where investor sentiment has the potential to add something different.
BUZZ | VanEck Social Sentiment ETF
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Important Disclosures
Definitions: The S&P 500 is a stock market index of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a stock market index that consists of the stocks that are listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. S&P Banks Select Industry Index comprises stocks in the S&P Total Market Index that are classified in the GICS asset management & custody banks, diversified banks, regional banks, other diversified financial services and thrifts & mortgage finance sub-industries. Markit CDX North America High Yield Index represents one hundred liquid North American entities with high yield credit ratings as published by Markit. CBOE VIX Index is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities/financial instruments mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of 3rd party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck.
An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to social media analytics, equity securities, medium-capitalization companies, information technology sector, communication services sector, consumer discretionary sector, market, operational, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
Investing in companies based on social media analytics involves the potential risk of market manipulation because social media posts may be made with an intent to inflate, or otherwise manipulate, the public perception of a company stock or other investment. Although the Sentiment Leaders Index provider attempts to mitigate the potential risk of such manipulation by employing screens to identify posts which may be computer generated or deceptive and by employing market capitalization and trading volume criteria to remove companies which may be more likely targets for such manipulation, there is no guarantee that the Sentiment Leaders Index's model will successfully reduce such risk. Furthermore, text and sentiment analysis of social media postings may prove inaccurate in predicting a company's stock performance.
Cryptocurrency is a digital representation of value that functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but it does not have legal tender status. Cryptocurrencies are sometimes exchanged for U.S. dollars or other currencies around the world, but they are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies. The value of cryptocurrency may be derived from the continued willingness of market participants to exchange fiat currency for cryptocurrency, which may result in the potential for permanent and total loss of value of a particular cryptocurrency should the market for that cryptocurrency disappear. Cryptocurrencies are not covered by either FDIC or SIPC insurance. Legislative and regulatory changes or actions at the state, federal, or international level may adversely affect the use, transfer, exchange, and value of cryptocurrency.
An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Returns reflect past performance and do not guarantee future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, if any. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. Index returns do not represent Fund returns. The Index does not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, nor does the Index lend securities, and no revenues from securities lending were added to the performance shown.
BUZZ NextGen AI US Sentiment Leaders Index (the “BUZZ Index”) is a product of BUZZ Holdings ULC (“BUZZ Holdings”), and has been licensed to Van Eck Associates Corporation for use in connection with the VanEck Social Sentiment ETF.
“BUZZ” is a trademark of BUZZ Holdings, which has been licensed by Van Eck Associates Corporation for use in connection with the BUZZ Index.
VanEck Social Sentiment ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by BUZZ Holdings, or its shareholders, or the licensor of the BUZZ Index and/or its affiliates and third party licensors. BUZZ Holdings makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, to the owners of the VanEck Social Sentiment ETF or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally or in VanEck Social Sentiment ETF, particularly or the ability of the BUZZ Index to track general market performance.
BUZZ Holdings’ only relationship to Van Eck Associates Corporation with respect to the BUZZ Index is the licensing of the BUZZ Index and certain trademarks of BUZZ Holdings. The BUZZ Holdings are determined and composed by BUZZ Holdings without regard to Van Eck Associates Corporation or the VanEck Social Sentiment ETF. BUZZ Holdings has no obligation to take the needs of Van Eck Associates Corporation or the owners of VanEck Social Sentiment ETF into consideration in determining and composing the BUZZ Index.
BUZZ Holdings are not responsible for and have not participated in the determination of the prices of VanEck Social Sentiment ETF or the timing of the issuance or sale of securities of VanEck Social Sentiment ETF or in the determination or calculation of the equation by which VanEck Social Sentiment ETF securities may be converted into cash, surrendered, or redeemed, as the case may be. BUZZ Holdings have no obligation or liability in connection with the administration, marketing or trading of VanEck Social Sentiment ETF. There is no assurance that investment products based on the BUZZ Index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. BUZZ Holdings is not an investment advisor and the inclusion of a security in the BUZZ Index is not a recommendation by BUZZ Holdings to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor should it be considered investment advice.
BUZZ HOLDINGS DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS AND/OR THE COMPLETENESS OF THE BUZZ INDEX OR ANY DATA RELATED THERETO OR ANY COMMUNICATION WITH RESPECT THERETO, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ORAL OR WRITTEN COMMUNICATION (INCLUDING ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATIONS). BUZZ HOLDINGS SHALL NOT BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY FOR ANY ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR DELAYS THEREIN. BUZZ HOLDINGS MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE OR AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED BY Van Eck Associates Corporation, OWNERS OF THE VanEck Social Sentiment ETF, OR ANY OTHER PERSON OR ENTITY FROM THE USE OF THE BUZZ INDEX OR WITH RESPECT TO ANY DATA RELATED THERETO. WITHOUT LIMITING ANY OF THE FOREGOING, IN NO EVENT WHATSOEVER SHALL BUZZ HOLDINGS BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOSS OF PROFITS, TRADING LOSSES, LOST TIME OR GOODWILL, EVEN IF THEY HAVE BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, TORT, STRICT LIABILITY, OR OTHERWISE. THERE ARE NO THIRD PARTY BENEFICIARIES OF ANY AGREEMENTS OR ARRANGEMENTS BETWEEN BUZZ HOLDINGS AND Van Eck Associates Corporation, OTHER THAN THE LICENSORS OF BUZZ HOLDINGS.
Effective August 18, 2016, BUZZ Indexes Inc. implemented changes to the BUZZ NextGen AI US Sentiment Leaders Index construction rules. The index constituent count was increased from 25 to 75 stocks and the maximum constituent weight was reduce from 15% to 3%. These change may result in more a diversified exposure to index constituents than under the rules in effect prior to this date. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright© 2025 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spdji.com. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
© 2026 VanEck. VanEck®, VanEck Access the opportunities®, and the stylized VanEck design® are trademarks of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
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Important Disclosures
Definitions: The S&P 500 is a stock market index of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a stock market index that consists of the stocks that are listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. S&P Banks Select Industry Index comprises stocks in the S&P Total Market Index that are classified in the GICS asset management & custody banks, diversified banks, regional banks, other diversified financial services and thrifts & mortgage finance sub-industries. Markit CDX North America High Yield Index represents one hundred liquid North American entities with high yield credit ratings as published by Markit. CBOE VIX Index is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities/financial instruments mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of 3rd party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck.
An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, among others, risks related to social media analytics, equity securities, medium-capitalization companies, information technology sector, communication services sector, consumer discretionary sector, market, operational, high portfolio turnover, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, non-diversified and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks.
Investing in companies based on social media analytics involves the potential risk of market manipulation because social media posts may be made with an intent to inflate, or otherwise manipulate, the public perception of a company stock or other investment. Although the Sentiment Leaders Index provider attempts to mitigate the potential risk of such manipulation by employing screens to identify posts which may be computer generated or deceptive and by employing market capitalization and trading volume criteria to remove companies which may be more likely targets for such manipulation, there is no guarantee that the Sentiment Leaders Index's model will successfully reduce such risk. Furthermore, text and sentiment analysis of social media postings may prove inaccurate in predicting a company's stock performance.
Cryptocurrency is a digital representation of value that functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but it does not have legal tender status. Cryptocurrencies are sometimes exchanged for U.S. dollars or other currencies around the world, but they are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional currencies. The value of cryptocurrency may be derived from the continued willingness of market participants to exchange fiat currency for cryptocurrency, which may result in the potential for permanent and total loss of value of a particular cryptocurrency should the market for that cryptocurrency disappear. Cryptocurrencies are not covered by either FDIC or SIPC insurance. Legislative and regulatory changes or actions at the state, federal, or international level may adversely affect the use, transfer, exchange, and value of cryptocurrency.
An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Returns reflect past performance and do not guarantee future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, if any. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. Index returns do not represent Fund returns. The Index does not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, nor does the Index lend securities, and no revenues from securities lending were added to the performance shown.
BUZZ NextGen AI US Sentiment Leaders Index (the “BUZZ Index”) is a product of BUZZ Holdings ULC (“BUZZ Holdings”), and has been licensed to Van Eck Associates Corporation for use in connection with the VanEck Social Sentiment ETF.
“BUZZ” is a trademark of BUZZ Holdings, which has been licensed by Van Eck Associates Corporation for use in connection with the BUZZ Index.
VanEck Social Sentiment ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by BUZZ Holdings, or its shareholders, or the licensor of the BUZZ Index and/or its affiliates and third party licensors. BUZZ Holdings makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, to the owners of the VanEck Social Sentiment ETF or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally or in VanEck Social Sentiment ETF, particularly or the ability of the BUZZ Index to track general market performance.
BUZZ Holdings’ only relationship to Van Eck Associates Corporation with respect to the BUZZ Index is the licensing of the BUZZ Index and certain trademarks of BUZZ Holdings. The BUZZ Holdings are determined and composed by BUZZ Holdings without regard to Van Eck Associates Corporation or the VanEck Social Sentiment ETF. BUZZ Holdings has no obligation to take the needs of Van Eck Associates Corporation or the owners of VanEck Social Sentiment ETF into consideration in determining and composing the BUZZ Index.
BUZZ Holdings are not responsible for and have not participated in the determination of the prices of VanEck Social Sentiment ETF or the timing of the issuance or sale of securities of VanEck Social Sentiment ETF or in the determination or calculation of the equation by which VanEck Social Sentiment ETF securities may be converted into cash, surrendered, or redeemed, as the case may be. BUZZ Holdings have no obligation or liability in connection with the administration, marketing or trading of VanEck Social Sentiment ETF. There is no assurance that investment products based on the BUZZ Index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. BUZZ Holdings is not an investment advisor and the inclusion of a security in the BUZZ Index is not a recommendation by BUZZ Holdings to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor should it be considered investment advice.
BUZZ HOLDINGS DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS AND/OR THE COMPLETENESS OF THE BUZZ INDEX OR ANY DATA RELATED THERETO OR ANY COMMUNICATION WITH RESPECT THERETO, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ORAL OR WRITTEN COMMUNICATION (INCLUDING ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATIONS). BUZZ HOLDINGS SHALL NOT BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY FOR ANY ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR DELAYS THEREIN. BUZZ HOLDINGS MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE OR AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED BY Van Eck Associates Corporation, OWNERS OF THE VanEck Social Sentiment ETF, OR ANY OTHER PERSON OR ENTITY FROM THE USE OF THE BUZZ INDEX OR WITH RESPECT TO ANY DATA RELATED THERETO. WITHOUT LIMITING ANY OF THE FOREGOING, IN NO EVENT WHATSOEVER SHALL BUZZ HOLDINGS BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOSS OF PROFITS, TRADING LOSSES, LOST TIME OR GOODWILL, EVEN IF THEY HAVE BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, TORT, STRICT LIABILITY, OR OTHERWISE. THERE ARE NO THIRD PARTY BENEFICIARIES OF ANY AGREEMENTS OR ARRANGEMENTS BETWEEN BUZZ HOLDINGS AND Van Eck Associates Corporation, OTHER THAN THE LICENSORS OF BUZZ HOLDINGS.
Effective August 18, 2016, BUZZ Indexes Inc. implemented changes to the BUZZ NextGen AI US Sentiment Leaders Index construction rules. The index constituent count was increased from 25 to 75 stocks and the maximum constituent weight was reduce from 15% to 3%. These change may result in more a diversified exposure to index constituents than under the rules in effect prior to this date. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright© 2025 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spdji.com. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
© 2026 VanEck. VanEck®, VanEck Access the opportunities®, and the stylized VanEck design® are trademarks of Van Eck Associates Corporation.