Vaccines and Growth Drive 2021 Recovery
January 12, 2021
Read Time 5 MIN
During the fourth quarter, our base case for emerging markets (EM) was the following: we saw favorable economics, questionable politics and an exciting digital disruption theme that swept across emerging markets countries around the world.
As the quarter unfolded, some parts of EM demonstrated significant relative strength in coping with the effects of COVID-19, coupled with an increase in transformative growth trends across a broad range of sectors and industries. New virus cases trended more favorably in emerging markets vs. developed markets (DM). EM fatality rates were lower relative to DM as well. During the quarter, Northeast Asia stood out the most. The region’s success in containing the pandemic and maintaining growth with less stimuli became an anchor for EM currency and equity expectations.
Global growth normalized at different speeds, with EM central banks remaining very accommodative. Core inflation was a little higher but not really moving the monetary needle. Growth reflation without inflation (reverse stagflation) augured well for equity returns but reflected more in earnings rather than multiples. Economic recovery was led by China and other work from home (WFH) beneficiaries. EM real exports turned positive in September 2020; industrial production growth was upward trending in the majority of developing countries; and retail sales and commodities were on the rise as well. Vaccine allowing, we expect global trade to be on track for a V-shape recovery.
As it relates to Emerging Markets (ex-China) economies:
Korea/Taiwan Region benefitted from high tech and cyclical industry exposures. India was steadily getting back to normal. LatAm was the most impacted region, with poor management of COVID-19, but may do well with a combination of the southern hemisphere summer (warmer weather and longer days), followed by vaccine availability. The region is still heavily driven by commodity exports, with fiscal metrics severely compromised (for most countries) as an overall response to the pandemic. This means that LatAm is more dependent than ever on a combination of low global interest rates and a China-led global recovery. Gearing to commodity exports should help in its economic recovery effort as well. Mexico remains highly linked to the economic prospects of the U.S. Eastern Europe has dynamics similar to EU, benefitting directly from normalization. South Africa continued to struggle in economic terms.
With regards to China, challenges exist in its global relations, and that could potentially impact EM investing in the future.
During the period, we also saw a remarkable acceleration of digitalization across emerging markets that created ample opportunity for investing in forward-looking, sustainable and structural growth companies in the space. Undoubtedly, the scale of digitization offers unique opportunities for continued investment in innovative and disruptive issuers. However, valuations became a bit more challenged given the current market environment.
Emerging Markets Equity Outlook: Optimism in 2021
Clearly, we are in extraordinary times. We expect a more optimistic one-year outlook, driven by further optimization in virus control when vaccines are available and distribution schedules are in place, the U.S. election finally being behind us, and global investors feeling more confident in the outlook for emerging markets. A key driver of our outlook for 2021 and beyond is an expectation of global growth recovery, boosted by COVID-19 vaccine availability and logistics in place (e.g., EM regulatory approval, mass production and distribution schedule) – that should help catalyze a faster normalization in emerging markets economies around the world.
The consequences of the global pandemic juxtaposed with truly unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli will be with us for many years to come. Emerging markets have traditionally underperformed in a risky environment, but in general, we believe the behavior of the asset class has not been as bad as many might have predicted. A large part of the negative outcome in the first stages of the pandemic was generated by the abnormal strength of the U.S. dollar, driven by a global “shortage” of dollars. Aggressive central bank action has “normalized” the situation, and we continue to have a reasonable hope for U.S. dollar stability (or, dare we say, weakness) in the coming quarters. Whilst it may not matter in the shorter term, we think emerging markets currencies are cheap, particularly versus the U.S. dollar.
Investing in emerging markets is for the long haul. Whilst we can’t say exactly how all businesses will recover, we can say, with conviction, that the Fund is well positioned for the future of emerging markets.
All indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets countries. The MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (IMI) is a free float adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to capture large-, mid-and small-cap representation across emerging markets countries.
MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (IMI) captures large, mid and small cap representation across emerging markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2021 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spdji.com. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
Diversification does not assure a profit or prevent against a loss.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the portfolio manager and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results; current data may differ from data quoted. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
You can lose money by investing in the Fund. Any investment in the Fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. The Fund is subject to the risks associated with its investments in Chinese issuers, direct investments, emerging market securities which tends to be more volatile and less liquid than securities traded in developed countries, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, Stock Connect, management, market, operational, sectors and small- and medium-capitalization companies risks. The Fund’s investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability.
Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for performance information current to the most recent month end and for a free prospectus and summary prospectus. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this as well as other information. Please read them carefully before investing.
August 04, 2022
July 18, 2022
September 13, 2022
The 5G roll out in India may provide infrastructure that could accelerate the digital transition of India’s economy. The shift is creating investment opportunities worth consideration.
August 04, 2022
July 18, 2022
We see opportunities for inflation, interest rate expectations, China regulatory fear and COVID resurgence and the commodity rally to change in a positive way for the Fund.