July Market Recap: Positioning for AI Demand and Policy Uncertainty
August 11, 2025
Read Time 4 MIN
Overview
July wasn’t quiet. Markets moved. Institutions wobbled. Innovation advanced.
None of this is new. But it’s gaining speed.
We continue to track the same primary themes as last month and our positioning reflects those: driven by AI, long U.S. technology and nuclear innovation with exposure to gold and bitcoin as potential offsets lingering policy uncertainty. In summary, our framework focuses on where structural shifts are creating lasting opportunity, not on short-term market movements.
Key Market Themes
Three themes continue to shape our view:
- AI is reshaping global productivity.
- Energy systems must scale to support that shift.
- Policy credibility is under pressure - from both monetary and fiscal sides.
AI’s Consolidation and Market Leadership
AI is more than a theme - it’s the infrastructure of the next cycle.
Microsoft surpassed $4 trillion in market cap. Nvidia continues to dominate the compute layer. These companies are powering platforms that will define productivity for decades.
The policy environment is increasingly supportive. The Trump administration has made clear moves to support U.S. leadership in AI and digital assets - through infrastructure investment, energy policy, and crypto regulation. That’s a real tailwind.
The message from markets is clear: innovation remains the structural engine of growth. We stay aligned.
Cracks in Policy Credibility
July also exposed growing pressure on institutional trust.
President Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after weak jobs data and downward revisions, citing data manipulation. Whether the numbers were flawed or politically inconvenient, the signal to investors was the same: trust is fraying.
He also publicly challenged Fed Chair Powell on live television over the cost of the Federal Reserve’s building renovation, while floating major leadership changes. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is down 8.6% YTD - a material move for the world’s reserve currency.
In this environment, bitcoin and gold aren’t speculative. In our view, they’re becoming essential.
Nuclear Energy: The Next Investment Frontier
AI is always on. That means power demand is rising - and reliability matters.
Small modular reactors (SMRs) are gaining real momentum. X-energy and Amazon are working to deploy gigawatts of capacity. Trump’s executive order calls for a fourfold increase in U.S. nuclear generation. Private capital is already moving.
Nuclear is no longer a long-term conversation, it’s a medium-term solution. Fossil fuels remain the immediate bridge.
Portfolio Activity: Recent Moves
We made targeted adjustments in July to better align with our themes and upgrade the growth profile of our portfolios.
New and increased positions included:
- Invesco QQQ (QQQ): Large-cap AI platform leadership
- VanEck Video Gaming & eSports (ESPO): Immersive digital content and engagement
- GlobalX Infrastructure Development (PAVE): Physical buildout behind AI and energy scale
- Defiance Quantum (QTUM): Advanced computing, AI acceleration, and quantum potential
- VanEck Alternative Asset Manager (GPZ): New position. Firms like Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo are financing the infrastructure powering AI, cybersecurity, energy transition, and digital health
Each position improves thematic precision and portfolio adaptability.
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Market Review
Equities:
U.S. stocks (S&P 500) rose +2.24% in July and are up +8.59% year-to-date, supported by strong tech earnings and steady consumer strength.
Developed international markets fell -1.40%, held back by weakness in Europe. Manufacturing PMIs across the Eurozone remained in contraction territory, especially in Germany and France. Eurozone GDP growth came in flat, and consumer confidence remained subdued pointing to a lack of momentum across the region.
Emerging markets gained +1.95%, bringing YTD performance to +17.51%. Commodity-linked and tech-driven economies continued to lead, even as China’s ongoing softness weighed on sentiment.
Fixed Income:
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined -0.26% in July, up +3.75% YTD.
Weaker-than-expected job growth pushed yields lower, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may cut rates later this year.
Real Assets:
Copper dominated headlines. It surged 13.3%, the largest one-day gain on record - after a proposed 50% tariff on imports. Weeks later, it plunged 22% when the final policy excluded raw materials and scrap. This whiplash reinforced copper’s role as both a strategic input and a proxy for policy risk.
The VanEck Commodity Strategy ETF (PIT), which started July overweight copper, reduced exposure following the announcement. That decision was well-timed. PIT is a core position in our Real Asset Model and is also held through RAAX in the Wealth Builders and Select Opportunities Models.
Gold, while less volatile, continues to deliver. It dipped -0.61% in July but remains up +25.00% YTD. We see the recent consolidation as an opportunity to add exposure at more favorable pricing. Gold remains a key hedge against monetary excess and institutional instability.
Digital Assets:
Bitcoin rose +8.43% in July and is also up +25.00% YTD.
Its price strength continues to reflect investor demand for non-sovereign, policy-agnostic stores of value.
July’s divergence from gold was a reminder: while both serve similar purposes, they behave differently. Bitcoin remains a core allocation in our digital asset framework.
Positioning Going Forward
Here’s where we remain focused:
- AI and compute platforms - the foundation of productivity going forward
- Energy infrastructure - especially nuclear, where digital demand meets physical constraint
- Gold and bitcoin - potential stores of value when trust is in question
- U.S. tech leadership - where innovation lives, and where we stay overweight
The market is evolving. So are we. Our focus: stay aligned with where the world is going - and act with clarity and conviction.
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Important Disclosures
Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
ETF Model Portfolios Disclosures
The models are not mutual funds or other types of securities and will not be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and no units or shares of the models will be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor will they be registered with any state securities regulator. Accordingly, the models are not subject to compliance with the requirements of such acts.
The S&P 500® Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector; as an Index, it is unmanaged and is not a security in which investments can be made. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
The MSCI EAFE Index (“Developed International Markets”) is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (“Emerging Markets”) captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 1,278 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The LME Copper Index (“Copper”) reflects the global benchmark price for Grade A copper contracts traded on the London Metal Exchange. Based on physically settled futures with standardized delivery terms, the index captures transparent pricing across a global network of over 30 delivery locations and serves as the primary reference for copper market participants.
The LBMA Gold Price (“Gold”) is the globally recognized benchmark for unallocated gold delivered in London. Set twice daily via an auction process in U.S. dollars, it reflects the equilibrium price for large-volume gold trades and serves as a primary reference for pricing, settlement, and valuation across global markets.
The COMEX Gold Futures benchmark represents standardized contracts for 100 troy ounces of gold traded on the CME Group. Quoted in U.S. dollars and physically settled, the contracts reflect real-time market consensus on gold pricing and are widely used for hedging, investment, and speculative strategies.
The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) (“Bitcoin”) offers a real-time, broad-based reference rate for the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin. Sourced from multiple vetted exchanges, the index combines high integrity and low latency, and is designed to serve as a reliable benchmark for institutional and retail digital asset markets.
The principal risks of investing in VanEck ETFs include sector, market, economic, political, foreign currency, world event, index tracking, active management, social media analytics, derivatives, blockchain, commodities and non-diversification risks, as well as fluctuations in net asset value and the risks associated with investing in less developed capital markets. The Funds may loan their securities, which may subject them to additional credit and counterparty risk. ETFs that invest in high-yield securities are subject to subject to risks associated with investing in high-yield securities; which include a greater risk of loss of income and principal than funds holding higher-rated securities; concentration risk; credit risk; hedging risk; interest rate risk; and short sale risk. ETFs that invest in companies with small capitalizations are subject to elevated risks, which include, among others, greater volatility, lower trading volume and less liquidity than larger companies. Please see the prospectus of each Fund for more complete information regarding each Fund’s specific risks.
Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
© Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
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Important Disclosures
Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
ETF Model Portfolios Disclosures
The models are not mutual funds or other types of securities and will not be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and no units or shares of the models will be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor will they be registered with any state securities regulator. Accordingly, the models are not subject to compliance with the requirements of such acts.
The S&P 500® Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector; as an Index, it is unmanaged and is not a security in which investments can be made. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
The MSCI EAFE Index (“Developed International Markets”) is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (“Emerging Markets”) captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 1,278 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The LME Copper Index (“Copper”) reflects the global benchmark price for Grade A copper contracts traded on the London Metal Exchange. Based on physically settled futures with standardized delivery terms, the index captures transparent pricing across a global network of over 30 delivery locations and serves as the primary reference for copper market participants.
The LBMA Gold Price (“Gold”) is the globally recognized benchmark for unallocated gold delivered in London. Set twice daily via an auction process in U.S. dollars, it reflects the equilibrium price for large-volume gold trades and serves as a primary reference for pricing, settlement, and valuation across global markets.
The COMEX Gold Futures benchmark represents standardized contracts for 100 troy ounces of gold traded on the CME Group. Quoted in U.S. dollars and physically settled, the contracts reflect real-time market consensus on gold pricing and are widely used for hedging, investment, and speculative strategies.
The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) (“Bitcoin”) offers a real-time, broad-based reference rate for the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin. Sourced from multiple vetted exchanges, the index combines high integrity and low latency, and is designed to serve as a reliable benchmark for institutional and retail digital asset markets.
The principal risks of investing in VanEck ETFs include sector, market, economic, political, foreign currency, world event, index tracking, active management, social media analytics, derivatives, blockchain, commodities and non-diversification risks, as well as fluctuations in net asset value and the risks associated with investing in less developed capital markets. The Funds may loan their securities, which may subject them to additional credit and counterparty risk. ETFs that invest in high-yield securities are subject to subject to risks associated with investing in high-yield securities; which include a greater risk of loss of income and principal than funds holding higher-rated securities; concentration risk; credit risk; hedging risk; interest rate risk; and short sale risk. ETFs that invest in companies with small capitalizations are subject to elevated risks, which include, among others, greater volatility, lower trading volume and less liquidity than larger companies. Please see the prospectus of each Fund for more complete information regarding each Fund’s specific risks.
Digital asset investments are subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
© Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.