Key Takeaways:

• WARP can only add SpaceX if it becomes publicly listed and meets index rules.
• Private market access comes with trade-offs in liquidity, valuation and transparency.
• WARP’s underlying index includes fast-track rules for very large IPOs that qualify.
• A SpaceX IPO may impact trading dynamics across the broader space theme.

SpaceX is discussed here for illustrative purposes only. As of publication, SpaceX is privately held and is not a holding of the VanEck Space ETF (WARP); as a private company it is not eligible for the fund’s index, though this could change if it becomes public and meets the index criteria. Investors should not expect WARP to provide SpaceX exposure.

This material contains forward-looking statements, including projections about the space economy and a potential SpaceX IPO, that are not guarantees of future results and may prove incorrect. Nothing herein is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

If SpaceX becomes publicly available, should it be added to an ETF immediately?

For a rules-based ETF like the VanEck Space ETF (WARP), the answer is intentionally disciplined. WARP is designed to own publicly traded companies that meet the eligibility requirements of its underlying index. That means SpaceX’s popularity or importance to the space economy do not determine its inclusion. It would need to satisfy the index’s rules before it could be included.

That distinction matters.

Why Shouldn’t an ETF Own SpaceX Before the IPO?

Certain investors can gain private-market exposure to companies before they go public, including through special purpose vehicles, private funds, or other secondary-market structures. These vehicles can offer early access, but they can also introduce tradeoffs, such as limited liquidity, valuation uncertainty, transfer restrictions, lockups, additional fees, and less transparency than public equity ownership.

ETFs operate differently. ETFs are built around daily transparency, daily liquidity, and a clear creation/redemption process. Owning a private vehicle instead of public shares can create complications around these.

That is why, in our view, waiting for public-market eligibility is the more prudent approach for adding new entrants to an ETF.

WARP’s Framework for Adding Potential SpaceX Exposure

WARP tracks the MarketVector Space Index (MVWARP), a rules-based index focused on publicly traded companies tied to the space economy. The index methodology determines which companies are eligible, when they may be added, and how large each position can be. For newly public companies, this process depends on the size of the IPO and when it happens relative to the index’s quarterly rebalance calendar.

^* Free float, or public float, is the percentage of outstanding shares available for the public to trade.

This process helps remove discretion from the decision. If a company qualifies, it can be included according to the methodology. If it does not qualify, it is not added simply because it is popular or because investors are paying attention.

SpaceX is clearly central to the modern space economy, with businesses across launch services, satellite communications, and related infrastructure. But importance to an industry is not the same thing as index eligibility. For WARP, the public listing, share-class eligibility, free-float requirements, revenue exposure, and index timing rules all matter.

WARP’s potential SpaceX exposure is not about trying to get ahead of the market through a private vehicle. It provides exposure once the company becomes eligible under a transparent public-market framework. That may also mean that a newly public company is not added on its first day of trading. While every IPO is different, the period immediately following a high-profile listing may involve heightened volatility as investors establish a market price and trading liquidity develops. Waiting until a company meets index eligibility requirements allows some of that price-discovery process to occur before the stock is incorporated into the index.

Public Shares Better Suited for ETFs Than Private Market Exposure

Once a company is publicly listed, investors gain a clearer market price. Shares trade on an exchange. Liquidity can be observed. Index providers can apply their methodologies. ETF portfolio managers can buy, sell, and rebalance in line with the fund’s rules.

That does not eliminate risk. Public shares can still be volatile, especially after a high-profile IPO. But the exposure is cleaner and more transparent than relying on a private structure that may have its own restrictions.

For ETF investors, that transparency matters. They can see what the fund owns. They can see the position size. They can see how the holding fits into the broader portfolio. And they can access the ETF intraday through the public market.

If SpaceX becomes publicly listed and meets the relevant index requirements, WARP may be positioned to hold the company according to the index methodology. That approach reflects the purpose of a rules-based ETF. It requires a company to become eligible and then be added according to the rules.

WARP is not designed to speculate on private-market access. It is designed to provide transparent, exchange-traded exposure to companies that meet the index’s definition of the investable space economy.

If SpaceX becomes part of that public investable universe and meets specific rules, WARP’s methodology provides a streamlined fast track IPO rule for quick addition.

Effects of SpaceX’s Public Debut May Extend Across the Sector

Index-tracking funds may need to buy shares when a company enters their benchmark. If the available public shares are limited, that buying can become an important part of short-term trading dynamics. This does not guarantee any specific outcome for the stock price, and index inclusion is never automatic. But it is a factor investors should understand.

For thematic investors, index inclusion may affect more than one company. A major public listing can draw attention to an entire industry, influence flows into related ETFs, and create renewed interest in companies connected to the same theme. However, investors should be careful not to treat index inclusion as an investment thesis by itself. The more durable question is whether the company and the broader space economy can support long-term growth.

Eligibility Before Exposure: The WARP Approach to a Potential SpaceX IPO

SpaceX may become one of the most important public-market events for the space industry. For ETF investors, how exposure is obtained matters just as much as whether exposure is obtained.

Private-market access can sound attractive, but it may come with liquidity, valuation, and transparency challenges. A rules-based public ETF takes a different approach: wait for the company to become publicly listed, confirm eligibility, and add exposure according to a defined methodology. That process can also provide time for the market to digest a major IPO. Rather than seeking exposure before or immediately at listing, investors gain access through a framework that emphasizes liquidity, transparency and established market pricing.

That may be less flashy than owning a private wrapper before an IPO. But for a transparent ETF structure, it is the more prudent path.

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