CEO Jan van Eck recently discussed why he is cautiously optimistic heading into 2026. Fiscal progress is real and markets are finding balance, but selectivity still matters as AI evolves, credit tightens and policy shifts continue.

To complement these macro-level insights, we asked our portfolio managers to share their outlooks for their respective asset classes and highlight the most significant investment opportunities. Their insights below provide a view across various asset classes, offering guidance to empower your investment decisions for the year ahead.

• Multi Asset: Three Mega Themes for 2026
• Gold: Fundamental Drivers Remain Powerful
• Natural Resources: The Structural Power Crunch Begins
• Fixed Income: Focused on Relative Value and Capital Preservation
• Municipal Bonds: Another Year of Strong Issuance Expected
• Emerging Markets Debt: Fiscal Dominance
• Emerging Markets Equity: Set Up for a Fundamentals-Led Year
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin Mining’s Pivot Creates Opportunities

Multi Asset: Three Mega Themes for 2026

David Schassler

Head of Multi-Asset Solutions

Outlook

Heading into 2026, three mega-themes are driving markets:

1. A technological revolution
2. Old-world assets building the new world
3. Monetary debasement picking up the tab

Against this backdrop, we expect more volatility in tech. AI is shifting from phase 1, build-out, to phase 2, adoption. Phase 1 rewarded scale and storytelling, while phase 2 requires a credible path to ROI on the largest tech cap-ex cycle in history. That transition exposes hard truths that markets may not want to hear. But in a technological revolution, volatility is a feature. It creates entry points.

Investment Opportunities

The long game is unchanged: AI and robotics will over-deliver. Just don’t expect that full payoff in 2026. Real assets are in a stealth bull market. Natural-resource equities and other real-asset exposures are outperforming QQQ this year as under-the-radar beneficiaries of AI infrastructure, energy transitions and re-shoring. We’re still in the early innings of a decade-long real-asset super-cycle. Debasement is becoming the shadow financial strategy for funding yesterday’s liabilities and tomorrow’s ambitions. That risk needs to be hedged with scarce assets, such as gold and Bitcoin.

Gold is one of the strongest major assets this year, and we expect that momentum to carry it to $5,000 in 2026. The gold bull market will introduce real volatility to what has historically been a calm asset. That’s not a flaw; it’s an opportunity.

Bitcoin is lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date, and that dislocation is setting it up to be a top performer in 2026. Today’s weakness reflects softer risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressures, not a broken thesis. As debasement ramps, liquidity returns, and Bitcoin historically responds sharply. We have been buying.

Gold: Fundamental Drivers Remain Powerful

Imaru Casanova

Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals

Outlook

Gold’s performance in 2025 has been exceptional, recently breaking above the $4,000 level and establishing itself in a much higher trading range than earlier in the year. While some consolidation from these record levels would be natural, we expect any pullbacks to occur around a higher base, likely in the $3,500–$3,600 range rather than signaling a reversal. The fundamental drivers supporting gold remain powerful and durable.

Two forces continue to anchor this bull market. First, central banks have been buying gold at record levels for three consecutive years as they diversify reserves and, in many cases, actively reduce reliance on the US dollar. This structural shift in official-sector behavior appears set to continue. Second, Western investment demand—historically the key driver of major price moves—has finally turned higher. Gold ETF holdings remain well below prior peaks, suggesting substantial room for additional inflows.

Layered on top of these demand dynamics is a macro backdrop marked by heightened geopolitical risk, concerns over stretched equity market valuations, and a renewed desire for portfolio diversification. In this environment, gold continues to act as a reliable source of protection and resilience. For investors without an existing allocation, we believe it is not too late to begin building one.

Investment Opportunities

The most compelling opportunity in our space remains gold equities. Despite strong performance this year, the sector continues to trade at depressed valuation multiples relative to both the broader market and its own long-term history. This disconnect persists even as gold miners deliver some of the strongest fundamentals in decades: record revenues and cash flow, expanding margins, disciplined capital allocation, and healthier balance sheets.

Importantly, companies are maintaining conservative reserve price assumptions, often far below spot, while still generating enough free cash flow to fund organic growth, dividends, buybacks, and selective M&A. Yet the asset class remains significantly under-owned. With the total market cap of gold equities still around $1 trillion, even a modest rotation out of crowded segments of the equity market could drive meaningful re-rating.

We believe the sector is at the early stages of a long-overdue normalization in valuation. As investors increasingly recognize that today’s miners offer both leverage to rising gold prices and improving fundamentals, gold equities may finally earn a durable, strategic role in global multi-asset portfolios.

Natural Resources: The Structural Power Crunch Begins

Shawn Reynolds

Portfolio Manager, Global Resources

Outlook

Natural resources head into 2026 being shaped by a dominant force: the world is entering a structural power crunch. Global electricity demand is rising at its fastest pace in decades as AI data centers, widespread electrification, manufacturing re-shoring and ongoing urbanization drive unprecedented load growth. This wave of demand is colliding with energy systems built for a different era—security of resource supply, insufficient generation capacity, aging transmission networks and disruptive supply chains that are increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical pressure.

Energy availability and affordability have shifted from technical considerations to strategic determinants of economic competitiveness. Nations are now racing to secure fuels, critical minerals, grid equipment and next-generation power technologies. At the same time, multiple years of underinvestment across both energy and materials have created tight supply conditions in several markets, from natural gas to copper and other transition metals.

While policy uncertainty, interest-rate paths, China’s growth trajectory and geopolitical tensions may heighten volatility, the broader setup remains supportive. Secular demand growth from electrification, grid expansion and data-center build-out intersects with slow, complex supply responses—particularly in mining, where multi-year permitting cycles and rising project costs constrain new production. Taken together, these forces underpin a constructive long-term outlook for natural resource equities.

Investment Opportunities

The most compelling investment opportunities emerge where structural demand growth meets constrained supply.

In energy, natural gas remains a critical bridging fuel as grids struggle to accommodate accelerating load growth. Producers with low break-evens, disciplined capital allocation and well-positioned infrastructure continue to benefit from resilient demand patterns. Select oil and integrated energy companies also remain attractive given steady product margins, strong free-cash-flow generation and ongoing portfolio optimization. US output has been responsible for almost all the global supply growth over the last 15 years. This will not be the case in 2026 and beyond, and new, secure sources of production will need to be found.

In metals and mining, copper is especially well-positioned. Supply disruptions, limited project pipelines and long development timelines are intersecting with rising demand from EVs, grid investment and digital infrastructure. Companies with high-quality assets, clean balance sheets and visible production growth are poised to benefit from these durable trends.

Beyond traditional resource sectors, next-generation power technologies—including advanced nuclear, geothermal, hydrogen systems, long-duration energy storage and AI-optimized grid solutions—represent emerging areas of investment as countries pursue secure, scalable and affordable power.

Across the natural resources landscape, valuations remain attractive, cash generation is robust and secular tailwinds are strengthening. For long-term investors, opportunities lie in owning companies positioned to supply, enable or secure the world's rapidly evolving power systems.

Fixed Income: Focused on Relative Value and Capital Preservation

Fran Rodilosso

Head of Fixed Income ETF Portfolio Management

Outlook

Fixed income largely fulfilled its role in 2025, delivering mid-to-high single-digit returns across most sectors and mid-teens gains in emerging markets debt. Returns were supported not only by carry but also by declining yields, tighter credit spreads and, in the case of emerging markets debt, a weaker US dollar. By year-end, however, most markets were at materially lower yield levels than where they began, pointing to more modest baseline returns for 2026. Those prospects are further supported by historically tight credit spreads, even as spread levels are supported by strong corporate fundamentals. With developed- and emerging-market easing cycles nearing their end, and with sovereign debt concerns rising—notably around US deficits and Japan’s policy dilemma that pits currency stability versus debt sustainability—the backdrop still remains moderately constructive for private sector and EM credit.

Against the setting of a strong fundamental starting point and tight spreads, we expect credit returns in 2026 to be shaped in part by episodic volatility rather than trending markets, creating opportunities to add credit risk at more attractive valuations. At the same time, we remain cautious on duration: the trend of the US yield curve steepening while the Fed continues to cut should remain intact. The Fed also faces a policy dilemma as anticipated weakness in the employment picture coincides with upside growth surprises and sticky inflation. Meanwhile, Japan’s experience underscores the vulnerability of long-end yields amid fiscal and currency pressures, and Europe has also shown this year that policy rate cuts do not guarantee declining 10-year yields.

Investment Opportunities

With lower starting yields, and spreads that leave little room for additional capital appreciation, we begin 2026 focused on relative value and capital preservation rather than momentum. We continue to see value in investment-grade and mezzanine CLOs, but within our actively managed CLO strategies, we are tilting up in quality, which should afford us room to pivot should valuations correct. Emerging markets local-currency debt remains a compelling alternative to US or global aggregate exposure by most key fundamental and technical measures. It is important to note that although currency gains versus the US dollar stand at about 8% YTD 2025 (less than 50% of total return), those currencies actually have lagged the Euro by 5% over the same period, indicating the potential for a broader rally in EMFX and continued support for local currencies. Fallen Angel high yield stands out as a higher quality approach to risky credit, and there should be opportunities to add exposure there during spread-widening episodes. These asset classes also offer meaningful diversification to a traditional bond market allocation strategy, where current yields and valuations do not warrant extending risk. The potential for higher returns exists only at the margin and at the risk of defeating the stabilizing effect fixed income is meant to play in a diversified portfolio.

Municipal Bonds: Another Year of Strong Issuance Expected

Tamara Lowin

Senior Municipal Credit Analyst

Outlook

Record supply the past two years was led by new money revenue bonds as the quadrennial challenge to the muni tax exemption encouraged issuers to “pull forward” their calendar of deals to the market and suppressed refunding opportunities. Contributing to the heightened supply were the inflation-induced construction cost increases. The observable impact was a 7% increase in the average deal size year-over-year (through December).

For 2026, reassurance of the tax-exemption remaining in place and Fed Funds rate cuts will stimulate proportional increases in state and local G.O. issuance as well as opportunistic refunding, which was just 12% of issuance in 2025, when historically the figure was regularly responsible for over one-third of new issuance.

Structurally, the long-standing 30-year maximum maturity standard has now extended to a “new normal” of 35 years as inflation and higher construction costs increase project budgets. To afford annual debt service payments for new projects, borrowers will continue to push repayment plans out to 35 and sometimes even 40 years. At the same time, many borrowers are shortening the traditional 10-year call protection period, with the hope that lower short rates in the next 3-7 years and/or credit quality improvements will enable refinancing to reduce debt service expenses. Borrowers that increase their fees for services in the future can better absorb these expenses and refinance at lower rates with these changes in place.

Investment Opportunities

Treasury rates and municipal demand will dictate investment-grade municipal opportunities in 2026. We expect a treasury bull-steepener to emerge in the first half of the year. Two or three rate cuts by the Fed and continued elevated supply will keep muni yields high at the long end of the curve to compete with taxable debt. A proliferation of longer maturities will pressure yields wider as well, as retail investors will need to be compensated to move beyond the 20-year part of the curve. On this note, we expect to find continued value in the intermediate part of the muni curve, especially with short call structures, which shelters investors from duration risk and volatility on the long end.

In muni high yield, certain sectors are struggling with long-term demographic and policy shifts that stress their financials beyond inflation-induced higher construction and operating expenses. Higher education, charter schools, hospitals, senior living and tobacco are especially exposed and we expect further spread widening as the overall risks permeate these sectors. The need for individual evaluation of investments is critical to maintain exposure to these sectors and minimize risk.

Emerging Markets Debt: Fiscal Dominance

Eric Fine

Portfolio Manager, Head of Active Emerging Markets Debt

Outlook

Our outlook on emerging markets bonds is positive for 2026. EM bonds have been overlooked despite outperforming developed market bonds on an absolute- and volatility adjusted basis for over two decades. EM bonds carry at 6.4%, compared to 3.2% for the Global Aggregate, as of 11/30/2025, and carry has historically driven these superior returns (source: JP Morgan and ICE Data).

EM is largely not subject to the “fiscal dominance” that characterizes many developed market bonds, which dominate investor portfolios. EMs generally have about ½ to ⅓ the level of central government debt compared to developed markets. This means they have superior debt profiles. Initially, the key beneficiary was USD-denominated debt of these EMs, and their spreads and spread volatility collapsed in the initial phase. But EMs, particularly in Asia, have maintained this fiscal orthodoxy for decades now. This has anchored inflation and inflation expectations, and many EMs have seen their borrowing costs in their own currencies collapse as well. China has both USD bonds trading at lower yields than US Treasuries, as well as bonds in CNY that trade at lower nominal yields than US Treasuries. China is actively pursuing the internationalization of the RMB, including as a reserve asset.

Investment Opportunities

EMs not only provide geographic diversification and superior fiscal stances, but they are largely either commodities exporters (LatAm) or large trade surplus countries (Asia). This exposes investors to different underlying factors than what typically characterizes investor positions in bonds.

In this environment, central banks are not asleep. They are buying gold as a reserve asset, of course. And they never sent a press release on that one. As they search for new reserve assets, EM bonds are likely to fall on their radar. All those headlines we saw over the past several years about the UAE, Brazil, India and China trading in each other’s currencies is just a short step away from buying each other’s bonds as reserve assets. And the central banks won’t send a press release on this, either.

Emerging Markets Equity Set Up for a Fundamentals-Led Year

Ola El-Shawarby, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Equity

Outlook

Emerging markets enter 2026 with a more balanced and fundamentally supported backdrop after several years of macro uncertainty. Following a liquidity- and valuation-driven 2025, we expect returns this year to be increasingly earnings-driven, selective, and aligned with long-duration structural trends, resulting in greater dispersion across countries and sectors. Moderating inflation, increased central bank flexibility, and a US dollar that is unlikely to strengthen meaningfully—potentially softening as global rate cuts unfold—create a more constructive setting for EM. At the same time, renewed interest in global diversification is drawing investors back to the asset class as AI adoption, the energy transition, and manufacturing realignment become more globally distributed.

Despite this improving backdrop, investor positioning in EM remains light by historical standards, providing room for reallocation. China appears early in a multi-year repair cycle supported by rapid AI innovation, supply-side reforms, and steady efforts to lift consumption, even as property-sector pressures persist. India enters 2026 with more realistic earnings expectations, healthier valuations after last year’s pullback, and early rate-cut support; after notable underperformance versus China in 2025, we expect performance dispersion to narrow. In the Gulf, the UAE continues to benefit from solid, broad-based fundamentals, while both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are emerging as potential AI-enabled growth and reform stories, supported by low-cost energy, improved access to advanced chips, and ongoing capital markets modernization. Across Africa, macro conditions are improving for the first time in years as inflation eases and policy frameworks strengthen. Any movement toward a more durable peace outcome in Ukraine, and the resulting stabilization across Eastern Europe, could further support sentiment and reopen selective opportunities.

Investment Opportunities

The most compelling opportunities in 2026 lie at the intersection of structural growth, improving fundamentals, and supportive policy trends.

• China: Targeted reforms, better liquidity conditions, and AI-driven productivity gains are creating attractive opportunities across internet platforms, automation, advanced technology, and early signs of consumption recovery.
• India: A durable long-term story, with financials, high-quality consumer franchises, and industrials well positioned to benefit from strengthening demand within a more balanced macro environment.
• Korea and Taiwan: Key beneficiaries of structural semiconductor demand tied to AI. While we acknowledge the risk that hyperscalers may reassess near-term capex intensity, underlying supply-demand and return dynamics remain favorable. Korea’s Value-Up program is also helping narrow long-standing valuation discounts.
• Brazil: Moderating inflation and the potential for quicker rate cuts from historically high real yields support a more favorable backdrop for credit conditions, earnings momentum, and equities overall.
• Mexico: Investment may accelerate as USMCA discussions progress constructively and nearshoring trends continue to gain traction.
• Gulf: The UAE and Saudi Arabia offer rising AI-linked growth potential, with Saudi Arabia’s valuation reset and capital markets reform agenda providing additional upside.
• Africa and Frontier: Select markets may re-emerge as macro stability improves and reforms advance, while Eastern Europe could benefit meaningfully if geopolitical risks continue to ease.

Across emerging markets, we continue to favor high-quality companies with strong balance sheets, durable earnings power, and exposure to long-duration structural themes. These businesses are best positioned to lead a more fundamentals-driven 2026 and compound value for shareholders over time.

Digital Assets: Bitcoin Mining’s Pivot Creates Opportunities

Matthew Sigel

Head of Digital Assets Research

Outlook

Digital assets enter 2026 with mixed but constructive signals. Bitcoin fell about 80% in the last cycle, but realized volatility has since dropped by roughly half, which implies a proportional drawdown of about 40% this time. The market has already absorbed roughly 35%. At the same time, Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, which tends to peak in the immediate post-election window, remains intact following the early October 2025 high. That pattern suggests 2026 is more likely a consolidation year than a melt-up or a collapse.

Our outlook follows a three-lens framework:

1. Global liquidity is mixed: likely rate cuts provide support, but US liquidity is tightening somewhat because AI-driven capex fears have collided with a more fragile funding market and pushed credit spreads wider.
2. Leverage in the crypto ecosystem has reset after several washouts.
3. On-chain activity, while still soft, is beginning to improve.

Investment Opportunities

Against this backdrop, we favor a disciplined 1 to 3% Bitcoin allocation built through dollar cost averaging and by adding exposure during leverage unwinds and trimming into speculative excess.

We also note that quantum security has become an active topic inside the community, and while not an immediate threat, any coordinated response could resemble the first blocksize debates, where a transparent and technically rich public process pulled large numbers of new observers into the ecosystem and strengthened long-term engagement.

For 2026, we continue to see the strongest opportunity in the capital-intensive pivot underway in Bitcoin mining. Operators are trying to fund both hash-rate expansion and AI and HPC infrastructure at the same time. This is pushing balance sheets to their limits and widening the spread in cost of capital across the sector. Miners with hyperscaler partnerships are now raising straight debt on comparatively attractive terms, while second-tier operators are relying on dilutive converts or selling Bitcoin into weakness. We think this creates the cleanest consolidation setup since 2020 to 2021, and see the best risk-reward in miners transitioning into energy-backed compute platforms with credible HPC economics, advantaged power, and financing paths that do not require serial dilution.

A second but more selective opportunity is emerging in digital payments and stablecoin settlement. Stablecoins are entering genuine business-to-business payment flows, where they can improve working-capital management and reduce cross-border settlement costs. However, pure-play public equities remain scarce, and many investors remain wary of volatile layer-one tokens. The more investable angle may sit in fintech and e-commerce platforms that can unlock margin leverage by shifting supplier payments, payouts, and cross-border settlement onto stablecoins. High-throughput chains will support much of this activity, and a few tokens tied to genuine usage may benefit, but we believe the most durable opportunity may lie in the operating companies enabling adoption rather than in broad token exposure.

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