A lot of EM inflation surprises are to the upside. Can weaker growth pave the way to disinflation, or is stagflation still the baseline?

The market continues to comb data releases for signs of global recession. Meanwhile, Ukrainian refuges in EMEA can help to boost local consumption, but also raise inflation pressures.

China’s super-nuanced Loan Prime Rate cut aims to prop up the property sector. EMEA’s incoming Q1 activity indicators are not as weak as feared.

Philippines joined EM Asia policy rate’s liftoff with a hawkish hike. South Africa stepped up rate hikes, even though inflation is still within the target. 

The consensus expectations are shifting towards earlier tightening cycles in EM Asia. South Africa is likely to step up rate hikes despite inflation still in the target range.

Rising food prices might lead to longer “marathon” hiking cycles in EM. But what are the likely costs?