VanEck Blogs | Emerging Markets Debt Daily

The expectations for Brazil’s rate-setting meeting are high - will the central bank deliver? China’s near-term growth outlook is cut further.

This morning’s upside inflation surprise in Brazil worsens the general price trend in EM and demands a more decisive policy response from the central bank.

Another leg up in local yields in Brazil and Turkey invited “bond vigilantes” analogies. How does these countries’ experience compare to other EMs?

Russia's gutsy rate hike and fiscal frugality contrast sharply with Turkey's larger than expected cut and Brazil's fiscal uncertainty. The currencies' recent diverging performance is a reflection of diverging policies.

Turkey's unexpectedly large 200bps rate cut hit the currency and pushed the real policy rate in the opposite direction from most EM peers.

EM central banks are getting more hawkish, but the global backdrop is also changing and DM rate hikes are being increasingly brought forward.