Strategies
22 July 2021

VanEck Blogs | Emerging Markets Debt Daily

Hawkish Surprises Keep Coming
Mexico’s inflation keeps surprising to the upside, supporting the market expectation of more rate hikes in the next 3 months. Other EMs are still expected to normalize their policies, but not yet due to headwinds from low vaccination rates.
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23 July 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
EM Rate Hawks – First In, First Out?
Natalia Gurushina
Russia delivered a hefty 100bps rate hike, but signaled that it might take a pause. Brazil cannot afford such luxury yet, as mid-month inflation accelerated to 8.59% year-on-year.
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21 July 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
Peak Growth or Peak Concerns?
Natalia Gurushina
China’s financial stability concerns are back in headlines, but the near-term growth outlook remains unfazed.
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20 July 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
Policy Response and Growth/Rates Dichotomy
Natalia Gurushina
Lower global rates contrast with optimistic growth forecasts. EMs are expected to continue hiking, which should help to bring the average EM real policy rate back to positive territory in early 2022.
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19 July 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
EM – Local Policies vs. Global Concerns
Natalia Gurushina

EM central banks will be making rate-setting decisions amongst diverging inflation/growth outlooks and another global risk-off episode.

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16 July 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
EM Politics – Near-Term Pain, Longer-Term Gain?
Natalia Gurushina
Local bonds are bouncing in the recent political hotspots (South Africa, LATAM), but there is a question whether the risk premium will continue to mean-revert or it will have to move higher in the medium-term as the baseline.
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15 July 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
China Growth – Glass Half Full?
Natalia Gurushina

China’s Q2 growth slowdown was not as sharp as feared. The data flow, financial stability considerations and the level of funding costs will determine if more policy easing is required going forward.

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