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14 May 2021

VanEck Blogs | Emerging Markets Debt Daily

U.S. Surprises – EM-Friendly?
U.S. growth – slowing or rebalancing? The outcome matters for EM. EM central banks’ guidance is getting more hawkish as economies re-open and the pace of vaccinations picks up.
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13 May 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
Macro Surprises – Who Benefits?
Natalia Gurushina

The U.S. tapering narrative is attempting a comeback, but the real rates differentials between some EMs and the U.S. look much more attractive now.

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12 May 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
Inflation Rollercoaster(s)
Most central banks believe inflation spikes will fade later this year. China continues to withdraw policy stimulus, as the recovery becomes more entrenched.
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11 May 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
Higher Inflation, Steeper Yield Curves?
Natalia Gurushina

A low base effect pushes EM headline inflation higher. Central banks consider it transitory – can global cost-push pressures be a game-changer, causing local yield curves to re-steepen?

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10 May 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
Surging Commodity Prices – Friend or Foe?
Natalia Gurushina
Surging commodity prices can create a strong tailwind for EM FX. Pay attention to country specifics as regards the impact of higher food prices on EM inflation.
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07 May 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
EM Exports – Rebalancing on the Way?
Natalia Gurushina

China’s exports beat consensus, but its global exports share is set to decline as other EM benefit from the re-opening. Mexico’s inflation jumped higher, reinforcing expectations of a rate hike.

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06 May 2021
Emerging Markets Debt Daily
EM Rates – No Deviations From Status Quo
Brazil maintained the same pace of rate hikes (75bps) and guidance. Turkey remained on hold with a seemingly hawkish statement – but is it just lip service?
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